BMI View: A key trend in the Russian mobile market has been consolidation. The merger of Tele2 and Rostelecom has been finalised, and BMI believes that there is further consolidation and rationalisation in the pipeline . Although market saturation reached nearly 170% in Q115 , BMI believes that there is still scope for growth as some of these subscribers will be discounted as inactive SIM-cards get deactivate d, but towards the end of our forecast growth will plateau . LTE services continue to offer opportunities for more value-add data products to add revenue as smartphone penetration reaches 30%.
The subscriber base of the Russian mobile market bounced back to 240.330mn in Q414, according to data from the operators and from AC&M Consulting, with penetration increasing to 168.2%.
The latest data release from AC&M Consulting shows there were 23.2mn wireline broadband subscriptions at mid-2013, up by 14.2% y-o-y, as the penetration rate reached 16.5%.
Fibre-to-the-x subscriptions increased to 3.51mn at the end of September 2013, from 2.51mn a year earlier. The Russian pay-TV subscriber base grew by 2% in Q114, totalling 35mn. Penetration of pay-TV services reached 64%, with the seven largest operators accounting for 80% of the market.
Key Trends And Developments
Russia's Ministry of Communications and Mass Media has approved plans to auction spectrum in the 1,800MHz band. The ministry noted that the decision marks the first time that the country will allot 1,800MHz spectrum through auction. The ministry has yet to disclose when the auction will take place. 'Protocol on auction results should be signed no later than September 30 2015,' the ministry stated in an official release. The auction of spectrum in the 1,710-1,785MHz and 1,805-1,880MHz range will be conducted in nine regions, including Dagestan, North Ossetia-Alania and Stavropol Krai. The spectrum price will vary depending on location and frequency. The ministry stated that...
The Russia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Russia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Russia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.