Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The replacement of Saudi Arabia's heir in April 2015, along with other major changes in the country's leadership, represent a further consolidation of King Salman's authority. That said, the elevation of the king's son as second in line to the throne is proving a controversial choice, and could spark future instability.

  • Saudi Arabia's economic growth will slow considerably in 2016 and 2017 after six consecutive years of strong expansion. The corporate sector will face a much more challenging macroeconomic environment, amidst contractions in public spending, rising energy costs, and tightening liquidity.

  • Saudi Arabia's austerity budget for 2016 heralds a prolonged period of economic disruption and increased political headwinds. While the government's economic programme has the potential to significantly overhaul the Saudi economy, resistance from the elite and popular discontent will present substantial roadblocks to reform.

  • The Saudi-led military operation in Yemen has so far achieved few of its desired objectives. A move towards political dialogue between the warring factions is likely, but any agreement between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Shi'a Houthi rebels will be difficult to reach and even more difficult to implement.

  • While we maintain that large-scale protests are unlikely to occur in Saudi Arabia, large youth unemployment coupled with a lack of political liberties mean that tensions will continue to linger.

  • The municipal polls conducted in Saudi Arabia in December 2015 are of mostly symbolic importance, given the councils' limited authority. That said, the election of several women marks a positive evolution in the country's slow and highly managed process of social reform, and we expect women to gain further ground in public life and the private arena over the coming years.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.6 3.4 1.5 1.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 753.0 652.5 670.0 743.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.0 2.3 3.8 4.0
Exchange rate SAR/USD, eop 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.4 -15.0 -11.6 -9.4
Current account balance, % of GDP 10.8 -8.2 -9.4 -5.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
A More Challenging Period
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
11
TABLE: COMPONENTS OF GDP (% OF TOTAL)
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
12
Fiscal And Debt Outlook
12
2016 Budget Shifts Onus To Domestic Politics
12
TABLE: 2016 BUDGET: MAIN PROVISIONS
13
Structural Fiscal Position
15
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2014)
15
Equities
16
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Saudi Arabian Economy To 2025
17
Politics Main Risk To Long-Term Outlook
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
Slow Social Reform Process To Continue
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Foreign Policy
21
Iran-Saudi Arabia Diplomatic Cut To Have Regional Ramifications
21
Long-Term Political Outlook
22
Scenarios For The Coming Decade
22
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Trade Procedures And Governance
29
TABLE: MENA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
29
TABLE: REQUIRED TRADE DOCUMENTS
30
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES AND COSTS
30
Vulnerability To Crime
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Saudi Arabia with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Saudi Arabia with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report