Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The replacement of Saudi Arabia's heir in April 2015, along with other major changes in the country's leadership, represent a further consolidation of King Salman's authority. That said, the elevation of the king's son as second in line to the throne is proving a controversial choice, and could spark future instability.

  • Saudi Arabia's economic growth will slow considerably in 2016 and 2017 after six consecutive years of strong expansion. The corporate sector will face a much more challenging macroeconomic environment, amidst contractions in public spending, rising energy costs, and tightening liquidity.

  • Saudi Arabia's austerity budget for 2016 heralds a prolonged period of economic disruption and increased political headwinds. While the government's economic programme has the potential to significantly overhaul the Saudi economy, resistance from the elite and popular discontent will present substantial roadblocks to reform.

  • The Saudi-led military operation in Yemen has so far achieved few of its desired objectives. A move towards political dialogue between the warring factions is likely, but any agreement between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Shi'a Houthi rebels will be difficult to reach and even more difficult to implement.

  • While we maintain that large-scale protests are unlikely to occur in Saudi Arabia, large youth unemployment coupled with a lack of political liberties mean that tensions will continue to linger.

  • The municipal polls conducted in Saudi Arabia in December 2015 are of mostly symbolic importance, given the councils' limited authority. That said, the election of several women marks a positive evolution in the country's slow and highly managed process of social reform, and we expect women to gain further ground in public life and the private arena over the coming years.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.6 3.4 1.5 1.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 753.0 652.5 678.3 724.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.0 2.3 3.8 4.0
Exchange rate SAR/USD, eop 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.4 -15.0 -11.5 -9.6
Current account balance, % of GDP 10.8 -5.0 -7.5 -7.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Foreign Policy
8
Saudi-Russian Relations: Enduring Limitations
8
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Scenarios For The Coming Decade
9
Table: Saudi Arabia And RUSSIA - MAIN AGREEMENTS
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Weakening Growth Momentum From 2016 Onward
14
Table: Economic Activity
14
Investment Climate
16
Market Opening Significant Despite Slow Start
16
Fiscal Policy
17
Fiscal Expansion On The Way Out
17
Table: Fiscal Policy
18
Banking Sector
19
Growth Drivers To Weaken
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Saudi Arabian Economy To 2024
21
Politics Main Risk To Long-Term Outlook
21
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
Table: Operational Risk
24
Market Size And Utilities
25
Table: MENA - Market Size And Utilities Risk
26
International Security Risk
29
Table: MENA - Interstate Security Risk
29
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
33
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales
34
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends
35
Telecommunications
36
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
37
Other Key Sectors
41
Table: Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
41
Table: Defence & Security Sector Key Indicators
41
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
41
Table: Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
42
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
42
Table: Freight Key Indicators
42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Outlook
43
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events
43
Table: Global Assumptions
43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
44
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
44
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
45

Assess your risk exposure in Saudi Arabia with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Saudi Arabia with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report