Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The replacement of Saudi Arabia's heir in April 2015, along with other major changes in the country's leadership, represent a further consolidation of King Salman's authority. That said, the elevation of the king's son as second in line to the throne is proving a controversial choice, and could spark future instability.

  • Saudi Arabia's economic growth will slow considerably in 2016 and 2017 after six consecutive years of strong expansion. The corporate sector will face a much more challenging macroeconomic environment, amidst contractions in public spending, rising energy costs, and tightening liquidity.

  • Saudi Arabia's austerity budget for 2016 heralds a prolonged period of economic disruption and increased political headwinds. While the government's economic programme has the potential to significantly overhaul the Saudi economy, resistance from the elite and popular discontent will present substantial roadblocks to reform.

  • The Saudi-led military operation in Yemen has so far achieved few of its desired objectives. A move towards political dialogue between the warring factions is likely, but any agreement between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Shi'a Houthi rebels will be difficult to reach and even more difficult to implement.

  • While we maintain that large-scale protests are unlikely to occur in Saudi Arabia, large youth unemployment coupled with a lack of political liberties mean that tensions will continue to linger.

  • The municipal polls conducted in Saudi Arabia in December 2015 are of mostly symbolic importance, given the councils' limited authority. That said, the election of several women marks a positive evolution in the country's slow and highly managed process of social reform, and we expect women to gain further ground in public life and the private arena over the coming years.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.6 3.4 1.5 1.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 753.0 652.5 670.0 743.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.0 2.3 3.8 4.0
Exchange rate SAR/USD, eop 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.4 -15.0 -11.6 -9.4
Current account balance, % of GDP 10.8 -8.2 -9.4 -5.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Economic Slowdown Will Last
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
10
TABLE: COMPONENTS OF GDP (% OF TOTAL)
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
12
Eurobond Issuance Will Mitigate Crowding Out
12
Structural Fiscal Position
13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2014)
14
Vision 2030
15
Diversification Facing Numerous Hurdles
15
Monetary Policy
19
Stable MonPol And Riyal Peg, Less Investment Ahead For SAMA
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Saudi Arabian Economy To 2025
21
Politics Main Risk To Long-Term Outlook
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Little Short Term Risk, But Long Term Uncertainty, From Economic Upheaval
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Scenarios For The Coming Decade
27
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk Index
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
32
Economic Openness
33
TABLE: TOP FIVE TRADE PARTNERS - PRODUCT IMPORTS (2010-2014), USDMN
33
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
36
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
37
Availability Of Labour
41
TABLE: MENA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
42
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCES OF IMMIGRANTS BY COUNTRY '000
43
TABLE: EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR '000
44
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
47
Global Macro Outlook
47
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
47
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
47
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
48
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
49
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
51

Assess your risk exposure in Saudi Arabia with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Saudi Arabia with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report