Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

Published 24 March 2015

  • 69 pages
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$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

BMI View: The outlook for the Saudi Arabian freight transport sector in 2015 is positive , and we forecast robust growth across all freight modes. Rail freight in particular will perform well as the country ramps up its mineral exports, utilising newly developed freight lines like the North-South Railway. Despite the fall in the oil price through the end of 2014 we expect that the economy will continue to grow, driven in large part by private consumption. As a result, demand for containerised goods imports will be strong, boosting box throughput at container ports and intermodal volumes on the roads.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total Saudi Arabian trade set to grow by 3.3% in 2015 in real terms, with imports growing 5.5% and exports by 1.1%. Real trade growth will average 2.5% to 2019.

  • Air freight volumes set to grow 6.3% in 2015, to reach 1.18mn tonnes. Growth to 2019 to average around 5% a year.

  • 2015 Jeddah Islamic Port total tonnage throughput forecast to return to growth, expanding by 5.2%.

  • 2015 rail freight volumes forecast to grow by 9.8% in 2015 and to average 11.7% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Salary Bonus Will Boost Demand: The recent ascension of King Salman to the Saudi Arabian throne has been marked by public servants being granted two months' worth of salary as a bonus. The pledge is expected to be matched by large parts of the private sector, which will provide a significant boost to consumption, and is the primary reason behind our having upgraded our real GDP growth forecast since last quarter, from 3.6% to 3.7%. The extra disposable income will boost Saudi citizens' spending power, and drive forward demand for containerised goods imports.

Dammam-Jeddah Rail Link To Strengthen Trade: Saudi Arabia's trade with GCC and European countries will be strengthened if the Dammam and Jeddah ports in the country are linked by a railway line, according to Saudi Ports Authority (SPA) President Abdul Aziz Altuwaijri. 'The Saudi...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Rail
16
Table: Rail Freight (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
18
Air
18
Table: Air Freight (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
20
Maritime
20
Table: Maritime Freight, (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
22
Trade
23
Table: Trade Overview (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
24
Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012
25
Table: Main Export Partners, 2004-2012
26
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
36
Air
36
Rail Freight
36
Maritime
37
Company Profile
39
Saudi Airlines Cargo (Saudia)
39
Vela International Marine (Vela)
45
Bahri
48
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
55
Political Outlook
58
Domestic Politics
58
Long-Term Political Outlook
62
Table: SAUDI ARABIA - POLITICAL OVERVIEW
68
Oil Price Outlook
70
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
70
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
70
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
72
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
76
Risks To Outlook
77
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
78
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
78
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
83
Risks To Outlook
84
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
85
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
85
Supply Keeps Market Down
85
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
87
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
88
Risks To Outlook
91
Macroeconomic Forecasts
92
Economic Analysis
92
Table: BMI AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS* FORECASTS FOR BRENT, USD/BBL
95
Table: Economic Activity (Saudi Arabia 2009-2018)
98
Demographic Forecast
99
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
100
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
101
Table: Saudi Arabia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
102
Table: Saudi Arabia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
102
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Sector-Specific Methodology
104
Sources
105

The Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc