BMI View: The outlook for the Saudi Arabian freight transport sector in 2015 is positive and we forecast robust growth across all freight modes. Rail freight in particular will perform well as the country ramps up its mineral exports, utilising newly developed freight lines like the North-South Railway. Despite the fall in the oil price through the end of 2014 and a dip in nominal trade volumes, we expect that the economy will continue to grow, driven in large part by private consumption. As a result, demand for containerised goods imports will be strong, boosting box throughput at container ports and intermodal volumes on the roads.
Saudi Arabia's trade is overwhelmingly driven by its oil exports. With the global price of Brent crude having fallen dramatically through the close of 2014, the country's nominal trade value has dropped off. Nevertheless, in real terms we expect continued growth, and the rising wealth of the country's population, and steady - if slow - diversification of the economy will see trade continue to expand over the course of our forecast period.
Road freight will be positive in 2015 and over the medium term, although as a developed sector its expansion will be slower than we expect in other freight modes. Growth will be bolstered by household spending, the mining sector and infrastructure projects. In 2016 growth will slow somewhat as the effects of the government's stimulus package wear off. Nevertheless, volumes will continue to increase, as we expect government spending to be kept up despite falling oil revenues. We forecast that Saudi Arabia's road freight volumes will grow by 4.8% in 2015, slowing to 2.2% in 2016. If our 2015 forecast is borne out, 128.27mn tonnes will be transported on the country's roads by year-end. In 2016 we forecast that 131.11mn tonnes will be transported.
Rail freight will be the outperformer in terms of volume growth in Saudi Arabia in 2015, and over the length of our medium-term forecast period to 2019,...
The Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.