Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

Published 11 June 2015

  • 66 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

BMI View: The outlook for the Saudi Arabian freight transport sector in 2015 is positive and we forecast robust growth across all freight modes. Rail freight in particular will perform well as the country ramps up its mineral exports, utilising newly developed freight lines like the North-South Railway. Despite the fall in the oil price through the end of 2014 we expect that the economy will continue to grow, driven in large part by private consumption. As a result, demand for containerised goods imports will be strong, boosting box throughput at container ports and intermodal volumes on the roads.

Real growth in Saudi Arabia's total trade will be steady rather than spectacular in 2015 and over our medium-term forecast period to 2019. We forecast a 3.3% expansion this year, followed by 2.7% next year, and project an average rate of 2.5% annually over the next five years. This growth will be overwhelmingly driven by a real expansion in real imports, as opposed to exports. In 2015, we forecast that imports will increase by 5.5% to exports' 1.1%.

We forecast that Saudi Arabia's road freight volumes will grow by 1.8% in 2015, making it the slowest out of the kingdom's freight transport modes in terms of its expansion rate. This is due largely to the fact that it is mode developed than the air and rail freight sector - which we expect to be the outperforming sector given its early stage of development. If our 2015 forecast is borne out, 120.44mn tonnes will be transported on the country's roads by year-end. In 2016 we forecast that growth will moderate slightly to 1.6%.

Rail freight will be the outperformer in terms of volume growth in Saudi Arabia in 2015, and over the length of our medium-term forecast period to 2019, as it benefits from massive investment. Although Saudi Arabia has had some limited rail services for some time, this has never been developed fully. Now, in common with the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of the Arabian...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Trade Forecast
15
Table: Trade Overview (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019)
17
Table: Main Import Partners
19
Table: Main Export Partners
19
Road Freight Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019)
23
Rail Freight Forecast
23
Table: Rail Freight (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019)
26
Air Freight Forecast
26
Table: Air Freight (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019)
29
Company Profile
30
Saudi Airlines Cargo (Saudia)
30
Political Outlook
33
Domestic Politics
33
Foreign Policy
36
Table: Yemen - Summary Of Political Situation
37
Long-Term Political Outlook
39
Table: Saudi Arabia - Political Overview
46
Oil Price Outlook
47
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
48
Macroeconomic Forecasts
50
Economic Analysis
50
Demographic Forecast
58
Demographic Outlook
58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
61
Methodology
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sector-Specific Methodology
64
Sources
66

The Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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