Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 June 2015

  • 122 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Low domestic gas prices and limited foreign participation will continue to weigh on Saudi Arabia's non-associated gas development. Oil production will see incremental growth, as the kingdom looks to meet rising demand domestically and maintain stable export volumes. Fuels consumption will see strong growth, supported by increased domestic refinery output and a high level of subsidisation; however, gas consumption will remain heavily constrained by limitations in the domestic supply. Insufficient gas supply poses major risks to planned downstream expansion projects and diversification in the kingdom's power sector.

Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 11,711.0 11,631.7 11,960.4 12,118.7 12,198.9 12,412.5 12,527.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 113.8 120.6 129.1 136.8 143.2 150.4 153.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 113.8 120.6 129.1 136.8 143.2 150.4 153.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,954.5 2,189.0 2,583.0 2,738.0 2,806.5 3,016.9 3,137.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,925.0 3,027.4 3,133.3 3,258.7 3,389.0 3,507.6 3,612.9
  • In an attempt to maintain crude oil export share, we expect Saudi output to remain stable over the coming year. This will see average production of about 11.8mn b/d of crude and other liquids in 2015, a marginal increase from 2014 levels.

  • However, we forecast a small decline in crude exports as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbing forecast production growth.

  • In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power and industrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited production growth.

  • In spite of Saudi Arabia's heavy focus on unconventional...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
9
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Upstream Project Database
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
18
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
25
Gas Consumption
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
31
Table: Major Downstream Projects
34
Trade - Oil
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
42
Industry Risk Reward Index
43
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
43
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Limited Opportunities Downstream
47
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Index
50
Market Overview
51
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
51
Table: Saudi Arabia - Upstream Project Database
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
54
Oil Refineries
54
Table: Refineries In Saudi Arabia
54
Oil Processing Facilities
57
Oil Terminals/Ports
57
Oil Pipelines
58
Gas Pipelines
59
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia's Oil & Gas Sector
61
Company Profile
62
Saudi Aramco
62
Shell Saudi Arabia
71
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
74
Chevron
77
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
83
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
83
Oil Production - Low Oil Prices Not Preventing Growth
83
Oil Consumption - Demand Continues Unabated
85
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Modernity And Scale
86
Gas Production - Pressure To Produce
87
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
89
Global Industry Overview
91
Oil Price Outlook
91
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
91
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
92
Appendix
99
Middle East - Regional Appendix
99
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
104
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
105
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
105
Saudi Arabia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
106
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
106
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
106
Saudi Arabia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
113
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
114
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
114
Glossary
115
Table: Glossary Of Terms
115
Methodology
117
Industry Forecast Methodology
117
Source
119
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
119
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
121
Table: Weighting
122

The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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