BMI View: Saudi Arabia will maintain its crude production broadly flat in 2016. However, longer-term production will rise, to answer growing demand from the domestic power and downstream sectors. The kingdom is increasingly targeting its exploration and development spending towards its non-associated gas resources. Saudi Arabia has vast unconventional gas resources, but the pace of production will be slowed by low state-set gas prices and limited foreign participation in the sector. The consumption outlook is positive for both oil and gas. However, we have revised down our refined fuels consumption forecasts in response to an accelerated subsidy reform programme.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Saudi Aramco, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||11,546.0||12,171.9||12,208.7||12,288.1||12,451.1||12,565.3||12,634.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||116.8||118.7||131.1||136.1||137.5||138.8||150.8|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||116.8||118.7||131.1||136.1||137.5||138.8||150.8|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||2,319.9||2,551.9||2,705.0||2,772.6||2,938.9||3,056.5||3,087.1|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||2,968.9||3,087.6||3,133.9||3,196.6||3,260.6||3,322.5||3,385.6|
Latest Updates & Key Trends
Saudi output will remain broadly flat in 2016, before resuming a gentle upward trend from 2017.
However, we forecast exports to remain flat as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbing forecast production growth.
In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power and industrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited production growth.
In spite of Saudi Arabia's heavy focus on unconventional and onshore non-associated gas resources, we expect slow progress in developing these prospects. Domestic production will likely remain insufficient to meet unrestrained demand.
Despite inadequate domestic supply, proposals to import LNG will face major roadblocks, due to concerns over the loss of the kingdom's energy self sufficient status, low domestic gas prices and risks to domestic gas development.
The pace of energy demand growth will begin to slow, as a more ambitious subsidy reform programme begins to take effect.
The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
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Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.