BMI View: Crude production in Saudi Arabia continues to grow, as the kingdom looks to balance existing export commitments with rising demand domestically. Export volumes will be supported by increased oil-to-gas switching in the power sector in 2016, with the commissioning of the Wasit gas plant. In order to grow the role of gas in the longer term, Aramco is targeting development of its vast unconventionals potential. However, we expect progress here to remain slow, despite an uptick in investment towards R&D. The outlook for gas consumption is bullish, driven by rising demand from the power and petrochemical sectors. However, consumption will remain capped by production across our forecast period. Fuels consumption growth has softened markedly in the YTD, due to the impact of subsidy reform and a weakened macroeconomic setting.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, Saudi Aramco|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||11,546.0||12,171.9||12,331.5||12,400.8||12,502.9||12,575.8||12,645.4|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||2,320.0||2,552.0||2,781.7||2,809.5||2,978.1||3,097.2||3,128.1|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||3,239.3||3,404.5||3,387.5||3,421.4||3,489.8||3,556.1||3,623.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||116.8||118.7||131.1||136.1||137.5||138.8||150.8|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||116.8||118.7||131.1||136.1||137.5||138.8||150.8|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Saudi output will trend gently upwards across the next five years.
However, we forecast exports to remain flat as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbing forecast production growth.
In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power and industrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited production growth.
In spite of Saudi Arabia's heavy focus on unconventional onshore non-associated gas resources, we expect slow progress in developing these prospects. Domestic production will likely remain insufficient to meet unrestrained demand.
Despite inadequate domestic supply, proposals to import LNG will face major roadblocks, due to concerns over the loss of the kingdom's energy self sufficient status, low domestic gas prices and risks to domestic gas development.
The pace of energy demand growth will begin to slow, as a more ambitious subsidy reform programme begins to take effect.
The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.