Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Saudi Arabia will continue to raise its crude production in 2016, in order to meet rising demand from the domestic power and downstream sectors. Crude exports will remain relatively flat, although expanding refining capacity will help ease the kingdom's reliance on imported refined fuels. Fuels consumption continues to see strong growth and limited progress on subsidy reform will keep this dynamic broadly in play. Gas consumption will accelerate over the next several years, as a spate of major new processing facilities are brought online. However, it will remain below the level of unrestrained demand, weighed downed by the limits of domestic production and a lack of import alternatives.

Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Saudi Aramco, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 11,592.0 11,615.0 12,108.7 12,186.3 12,255.4 12,418.2 12,532.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 113.8 116.8 118.7 131.1 136.1 137.5 138.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 113.8 116.8 118.7 131.1 136.1 137.5 138.8
Refined products production, 000b/d 2,109.0 2,319.9 2,551.9 2,705.0 2,772.6 2,938.9 3,056.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,925.0 2,968.9 3,087.6 3,140.5 3,210.1 3,283.9 3,366.0
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

Latest Updates & Key Trends

  • In an attempt to maintain crude oil export share, we expect Saudi output to increase its production y-o-y in 2016.

  • However, we forecast exports to remain flat as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbing forecast production growth.

  • In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power and industrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited production growth.

  • In spite of Saudi Arabia's heavy focus on unconventional and onshore non-associated gas resources, we expect slow progress in developing these prospects. Domestic production will likely remain insufficient to meet unrestrained demand.

Despite inadequate domestic supply, proposals to import LNG will face major roadblocks, due to concerns over the loss of the kingdom's energy self sufficient status, low domestic gas prices and risks to domestic gas development.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
9
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Upstream Project Database
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
19
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
19
Refining
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
24
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
27
Gas Consumption
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
33
Table: Major Downstream Projects
36
Trade - Oil
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
42
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
45
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
45
Middle East Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
46
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
46
Limited Opportunities Downstream
48
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
48
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Index
51
Market Overview
52
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
52
Table: Saudi Arabia - Upstream Project Database
53
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
Oil Refineries
55
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Refineries
55
Oil Terminals/Ports
55
Oil Pipelines
56
Gas Pipelines
57
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape Summary
58
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia's Oil & Gas Sector
59
Company Profile
60
Saudi Aramco
60
Shell Saudi Arabia
69
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
72
Chevron
75
Other Summaries
78
Regional Overview
81
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
81
Oil Production - Low Production Costs Support Expansion
81
Oil Consumption - Downstream Expansion, Subsidies Drive Demand
83
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Advanced Mega Refineries
84
Gas Production - More Gas Needed
85
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
87
Global Industry Overview
89
Global Energy Market Overview
89
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
93
Appendix
95
Middle East - Regional Appendix
95
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
101
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
101
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
102
Saudi Arabia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
103
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
103
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
103
Saudi Arabia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
110
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
111
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
111
Glossary
112
Table: Glossary Of Terms
112
Methodology
114
Industry Forecast Methodology
114
Source
116
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
116
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
118
Table: Weighting
119

The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.