Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Crude production in Saudi Arabia continues to grow, as the kingdom looks to balance existing export commitments with rising demand domestically. Export volumes will be supported by increased oil-to-gas switching in the power sector in 2016 , with the commissioning of the Wasit gas plant. In order to grow the role of gas in the longer term, Aramco is targeting development of its vast unconventionals potential. However, we expect progress here to remain slow, despite an uptick in investment towards R&D. The outlook for gas consumption is bullish, driven by rising demand from the power and petrochemical sectors. However, consumption will remain capped by production across our forecast period. Fuels consumption growth has softened markedly in the YTD, due to the impact of subsidy reform and a weakened macroeconomic setting.

Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 11,546.0 12,171.9 12,331.5 12,400.8 12,502.9 12,575.8 12,645.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 2,320.0 2,552.0 2,781.7 2,809.5 2,978.1 3,097.2 3,128.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,005.4 3,125.6 3,172.5 3,236.0 3,300.7 3,363.4 3,427.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 116.8 118.7 131.1 136.1 137.5 138.8 150.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 116.8 118.7 131.1 136.1 137.5 138.8 150.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates & Key Trends

  • Saudi output will trend gently upwards across the next five years.

  • However, we forecast exports to remain flat as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbing forecast production growth.

  • In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power and industrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited production growth.

  • In spite of Saudi Arabia's heavy focus on unconventional onshore non-associated gas resources, we expect slow progress in developing these prospects. Domestic production will likely remain insufficient to meet unrestrained demand.

  • Despite inadequate domestic supply, proposals to import LNG will face major roadblocks, due to concerns over the loss of the kingdom's energy self sufficient status, low domestic gas prices and risks to domestic gas development.

  • The pace of energy demand growth will begin to slow, as a more ambitious subsidy reform programme begins to take effect.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Upstream Project Database
14
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
18
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
18
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
22
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
22
Refining
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Saudi Arabia Fuel Price Reform, December 2015
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
31
Gas Consumption
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
34
Trade - Oil
35
Crude Oil
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020)
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
39
Refined Fuels
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
42
Structural Trends
42
Industry Risk Reward Index
43
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
46
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Index
49
Market Overview
50
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
50
Regulatory Overview
50
Licensing Regime
50
Fiscal Regime
50
Table: Saudi Arabia PCA Main Fiscal Terms
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Refineries
51
Oil Terminals/Ports
51
Oil Pipelines
52
Gas Pipelines
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia's Oil & Gas Sector
55
Company Profile
56
Chevron
56
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
59
Saudi Aramco
62
Shell Saudi Arabia
74
Other Summaries
77
Regional Overview
80
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
80
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
80
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
82
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
84
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
85
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
87
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
88
Glossary
90
Table: Glossary Of Terms
90
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Source
94
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
94
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
96
Table: Weighting
97

The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.