BMI View: Although issues pertaining to market access will continue to be of concern for multinational drugmakers, the Saudi Arabian pharmaceutical market will remain as one of the most commercially attractive in the Middle East and Africa region. The kingdom's young and growing population is a major draw for multinationals pharmaceutical companies, given that the Saudi Arabian drug market remains import-reliant. Furthermore, the kingdom's increasing focus on healthcare and social provision is going to be a long-term driver of medicine sales.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SAR28.21bn (USD7.52bn) in 2015 to SAR27.93bn (USD7.44bn) in 2016; -1.0% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from Q 416 .
Healthcare: SAR130.31bn (USD34.75bn) in 2015 to SAR129.12bn (USD34.41bn) in 2016; -0.9% in local currency terms and US dollar terms. Forecast revised down from Q 4 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, Local news source, Domestic companies, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.160||7.520||7.443||7.521||7.899||8.313||8.769|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.95||1.15||1.14||1.03||1.01||0.99||0.97|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.2||21.6||21.6||21.1||21.2||21.3||21.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||35.441||34.750||34.414||35.573||37.197||38.992||40.966|
In our Q117 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Saudi Arabia's score of 60.4 out of 100 is in line with its last quarter score, and maintains its position in second place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Regionally, Saudi Arabia ranks relatively well compared to the other Gulf States - only UAE is positioned higher. Its high composite score is due to its wealth and a sizeable population, which will support the longer-term development of the pharmaceutical market. To add to this, the country boasts the largest market size and one of the highest per-capita expenditure on pharmaceuticals in the region. However, issues relating to patent approvals and the regulatory system remain a major issue for foreign research-based pharmaceutical players. Moreover, Saudi Arabia's profound economic upheaval has the potential to cause greater instability in the kingdom; as such the government will closely monitor the social impact of its reforms.
In November 2016, the Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, announced that the Saudi Industrial Development Fund could be used to develop Saudi Arabia's pharmaceutical sector over the coming years.
In November 2016, the Kingdom announced a five-year plan to encourage medical tourism into the country's public and private sector hospitals.
In August 2016, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Health (MoH) announced plans to employ 100,000 Saudi nationals in the healthcare sector by 2030 - making up part of the Kingdom's National Transformation Program (NTP).
BMI Economic View
We forecast Saudi Arabia's real GDP growth to decelerate over the coming quarters, as private consumption is hit by fiscal consolidation measures implemented by the government in October. The shock from austerity will be severe enough to revert improvements recorded in non-oil economic activity since Brent recovered from its January lows. As a result, we now forecast real GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in 2017, down from 1.3% in 2016. Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions with Iran will put pressure on the recovering Saudi economy.
BMI Political View
Political risk in Saudi Arabia will increase substantially over the next ten years, but the al-Saud family will retain control of the state's apparatus. The country will embark on far-reaching economic and social reforms, which will transform Saudi Arabian society, and erode the welfare state. The risk of seeing conservative forces push back will increase as reforms progress, while tensions with Iran will persist, and impact Saudi Arabia's Shi'a minority.
The Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi Arabia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Saudi Arabia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.