BMI View: Over the forthcoming years, growth in Saudi Arabia's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will remain elevated. The government's ongoing commitment to sector development will continue to attract investments from multinational drugmakers and healthcare companies. More recently, the Kingdom has attracted significant attention from the South Korean healthcare industry. Saudi Arabia's economic diversification plans, dubbed 'Vision 2030', include a promising long-term healthcare strategy. The prolonged period of subdued oil prices and regional instabilities present downside risks to our otherwise positive outlook.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SAR31.75bn (USD8.46bn) in 2015 to SAR35.33bn (USD9.42bn) in 2016; +11.3% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 2 16 .
Healthcare: SAR142.93bn (USD38.11bn) in 2015 to SAR153.60bn (USD40.94bn) in 2016; +7.5% in local currency terms (+7.4% US dollar terms). Forecast in line with Q 2 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, Local news source, domestic companies, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.560||8.460||9.420||10.460||11.600||12.830||14.150|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.00||1.30||1.41||1.41||1.42||1.44||1.45|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||21.3||22.2||23.0||23.8||24.5||25.3||26.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||35.440||38.110||40.940||44.000||47.260||50.760||54.530|
In our Q316 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Saudi Arabia's score of 60.4 out of 100 is marginally higher than its score last quarter of 59.7, but maintains its position in second place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Regionally, Saudi Arabia ranks relatively well compared to the other Gulf States - only UAE is positioned higher. Its high composite score is due to its wealth and a sizeable population, which will support the longer-term development of the pharmaceutical market. To add to this, the country boasts the largest market size and one of the highest per-capita expenditure on pharmaceuticals in the region. However, issues relating to patent approvals and the regulatory system remain a major issue for foreign research-based pharmaceutical players.
In May 2016, Boehringer Ingelheim announced plans to expand their presence in Saudi Arabia's pharmaceuticals industry, primarily through, the expansion of diabetes medicines across the Kingdom.
In May 2016, the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Health announced plans to privatise 295 hospitals and 2,259 health centres over the next 15 years.
In April 2015, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, part of which includes plans to diversify the healthcare sector.
BMI Economic View
Saudi Arabia is entering a protracted period of subdued growth, with low oil prices negatively impacting business confidence, banking liquidity and government spending. In addition, real growth in the oil sector will decelerate, further compounding the country's economic slowdown. We therefore forecast real economic growth of 1.5% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017, down from 3.4% in 2015. This year will mark the slowest growth rate for the Saudi economy since 2002.
BMI Political View
The Saudi royal family depends on steady oil revenues to maintain its tight grip on the population. As a result, the sustained downturn in global oil demand could lead to substantial unrest and, potentially, regime change over the long term. We expect the Kingdom to closely monitor the impact of its economic transformation plan on domestic stability, scaling back reforms if it perceives them to trigger too much instability.
The Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi Arabia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Saudi Arabia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.