BMI View: High per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and a rising burden of chronic diseases will support long-term pharmaceutical growth in Saudi Arabia. However, a prolonged period of subdued oil prices may see Saudi Arabia cut back on high value drug spending - posing a risk to innovative drugmakers. Our outlook for the country's healthcare sector is a positive one. As such, the government's focus on healthcare will remain a priority, owing to the sensitive nature of the sector and its political importance. However, cost-containment measures will be encouraged, and over the long-term, the private sector will play an increasingly important role in the provision of healthcare in Saudi Arabia.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SAR31.75bn (USD8.46bn) in 2015 to SAR35.32bn (USD9.42bn) in 2016; +11.3% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 116 .
Healthcare: SAR113.11bn (USD30.16bn) in 2015 to SAR123.31bn (USD32.88bn) in 2016; +9.0% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 116 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, Local news source, domestic companies, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.562||8.462||9.419||10.419||11.461||12.540||13.652|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.00||1.30||1.33||1.38||1.38||1.38||1.38|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||27.3||28.1||28.6||29.1||29.4||29.5||29.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||27.652||30.161||32.882||35.832||39.029||42.492||46.244|
In our Q216 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Saudi Arabia's score of 59.7 out of 100 is marginally lower than its score last quarter of 59.8, but maintains its position in 2nd place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Regionally, Saudi Arabia ranks relatively well compared to the other Gulf States - only UAE is positioned higher. Its high composite score is due to its wealth and a sizeable population, which will support the longer-term development of the pharmaceutical market. To add to this, the country boasts the largest market size and per-capita expenditure on pharmaceuticals in the region. However, issues relating to patent approvals and the regulatory system remain a major issue for foreign research-based pharmaceutical players.
Saudi Arabia's state budget for 2016 includes a SAR105bn (USD28bn) allocation for health and social affairs. This equates to about 12.5% of the overall spending allocation, budgeted at SAR840bn (USD224bn).
In January 2016, Indian pharmaceuticals manufacturer Aurobindo announced plans to build its first manufacturing facility in the King Abdullah's Economic City (KAEC), in which it will manufacture generic drugs in the form of oral tablets and capsules.
In December 2015, Pharmaline Saudi Arabia, a new joint venture between Al Rashed and the Malia Group, entered a land lease agreement with KAEC, with plans to build and operate its first Saudi Arabian pharmaceutical facility in KAEC's industrial valley.
BMI Economic View
Saudi Arabia's economic growth will slow considerably in 2016 and 2017 after six consecutive years of strong expansion. We have revised down our growth forecasts slightly to reflect the economically disruptive nature of the government's 2016 budget and the further collapse in global energy prices since the start of the year. We project real economic growth of just 1.5% this year and 1.9% in 2017, down from 3.4% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The al-Saud regime has proved relatively resilient in the face of the Arab Spring, and the country has for the most part avoided the widespread anti-government demonstrations that swept throughout much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. However, the monarchy's position is heavily reliant on a combination of large handouts of cash in the form of public sector wages and subsidies, and a heavy-handed repression of dissent. In the long run, these strategies could prove unsustainable, and we would not rule out an uptick in popular dissatisfaction with the regime in the years ahead. While the government's economic programme has the potential to significantly overhaul the Saudi economy, resistance from the elite and popular discontent will present substantial roadblocks to reform.
The Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi Arabia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Saudi Arabia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.