BMI View: Government efforts to diversify the power sector away from oil-fired electricity output will be hampered by low oil prices over our forecast period to 2025. Ambitious targets for non-hydropower renewables will not be realised due to stringent local content requirements and fiscal pressures. The majority of capacity increase will be focused on thermal electricity generation, particularly gas-fired power .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||292.697||311.092||327.090||340.141||351.580||362.373||370.909|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||266.6||283.3||299.8||312.7||323.7||336.6||347.8|
|Capacity, Net, MW||69,139.3||71,701.2||75,082.1||77,806.5||79,438.7||80,386.7||81,025.0|
Latest Trends And Developments:
Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction has been awarded the contract for the construction of the 1.5 gigawatt combined cycle gas turbine power plant to the value of USD900mn. Doosan will partner with French firm Engie for the construction, and it is expected to be complete by the end of 2019.
The Saudi Arabian energy minister has stated in November 2016 that the government is committed to reducing its reliance on oil-fired power generation. The government intends to achieve this by increasing its gas production for gas-fired capacity while also aiming to increase renewable and nuclear energy.
Saudi Arabia's energy minister stated at the end of October 2016 that the government will be looking to identify a potential site to reserve a spot for the future construction of a nuclear power plant. The government will reportedly announce more concrete plans over the coming 12 months.
We maintain our forecast that Saudi Arabia will not have nuclear power capacity over our forecast period to 2025.
Siemens AG has stated that it expects to receive non-hydropower renewable electricity revenue of up to USD5bn in Saudi Arabia over the course of 2017 to 2020 from contracts to construct wind and solar farms. The company estimates that Saudi Arabia has potential for up to 300 megawatts (MW) of onshore wind capacity.
The Egyptian government has stated that it expects the planned interconnection between Egypt and Saudi Arabia to be completed within 2017. This was after a SAR6bn agreement was signed for interconnection between the two countries in 2013, with the aim of trading a peak capacity of 3,000MW.
The Saudi Arabia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Saudi Arabia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Saudi Arabia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).