Saudi Arabia Power Report

Published 07 July 2015

  • 76 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Power Report

BMI View: Saudi Arabia will register strong growth in new oil and gas-fired capacity over our forecast period as the government attempts to meet growing demand for electricity from an expanding population. Diversification into nuclear and solar will, however, take longer than anticipated, as lower oil prices mean public spending is rationalised from 2016 onwards and costly expansion plans are pushed back.

Saudi Arabia's power sector will continue to register robust growth over our forecast period, although a sustained period of lower global oil prices is likely to drag on government-backed spending on some of the Kingdom's more ambitious long-term projects. Government investment in new thermal-fired power capacity will remain high in the near term - as the kingdom attempts to keep pace with surging demand for electricity from a growing population. Investment in the diversification of the power sector - so as to reduce the amount of oil that is burned domestically and preserve it for export - will take longer, after targets for nuclear and solar expansion we pushed back in early 2015.

A strong project pipeline and growth in thermal capacity underpins our forecasts for annual average growth in electricity generation of 4% between 2015 and 2024. New gas-fired projects, valued at more than USD23bn (according to our Key Projects Database), will be key to energy mix diversification across our 10-year forecast period. Gas expansion is, however, likely to be constrained by uneconomic gas pricing and difficulties in accessing domestic gas supplies - meaning oil will still account for 47% of total electricity generation in 2024.

Notably, we have not yet included new nuclear capacity in our forecasts as we are awaiting more clarity on the country's ambitious plans to build 16 nuclear reactors. Similarly, despite hugely ambitious plans to diversify the energy mix through the construction of 41 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity (at a cost of USD109bn), the number of projects...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Saudi Arabia Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Saudi Arabia Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
16
Table: Saudi Arabia - Original 2032 Power Sector Targets (Now Pushed Back To 2040)
19
Electricity Consumption
32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
32
Transmission & Distribution
34
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
34
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk/Reward Index
36
MENA Power Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
41
Saudi Arabia Power Risk/Reward Index
42
Rewards
42
Market Overview
44
Key Policies And Market Structure
44
Regulation And Competition
44
Table: IPP - Investment Opportunities
45
Sustainable Energy Policies
46
Saudi Arabia Power Projects Database
47
Table: Major Projects - Power
47
Competitive Landscape
57
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)
58
Regional Overview
59
MEA Power Regional Overview
59
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
70
Industry Forecast Methodology
70
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Saudi Arabia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Saudi Arabia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Saudi Arabia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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