BMI View: Saudi Arabia ' s tour ism sector continues to expand. The market will continue to be largely driven by the huge volumes of foreign visitors - mostly from neighbouring countries - embarking on annual religious pilgrimages to the kingdom. However, the country is keen to attract more leisure tourism visitors and the government has recently indicated that it sees tourism as playing a key role in its economic diversification plans, which bodes well for investment opportunities in the sector. That said, we do not expect these plans to be implemented at the pace set out by the government, while political risks could also undermine this agenda. Other barriers to growth include extensive visa restrictions and regional security concerns, which may deter potential visitors.
|Source: National Sources/BMI|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||8.66||9.10||10.19||10.74||11.25||12.10||12.55||13.11|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||3.1||5.1||11.9||5.4||4.7||7.6||3.8||4.4|
|International tourism receipts, SARbn||32.48||34.15||38.22||40.30||42.17||45.37||47.07||49.15|
|International tourism receipts, SARbn, % y-o-y||3.1||5.1||11.9||5.4||4.6||7.6||3.8||4.4|
|Total arrivals, '000||14,411.10||14,841.50||15,079.03||15,614.40||16,450.74||17,479.07||18,591.79||19,775.34|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||0.9||3.0||1.6||3.6||5.4||6.3||6.4||6.4|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Saudi Arabia is keen to expand the tourism industry and the Saudi Commission for Tourism and Antiquities is targeting some 45.3 million tourism visitors by 2020. We view these projections as overly optimistic and expect arrivals in 2020 to reach just under 20mn.
The government is reportedly considering easing visa restrictions to encourage more international tourism arrivals. Further, the outlook for sector has arguably brightened following the launch in April 2016 of the government's economic diversification strategy, dubbed Vision 2030.
A number of domestic, regional and global hotel groups are expanding their presence. Rotana Hotels has announced plans to open five new hotels in Saudi Arabia in 2016, part of regional expansion plans, while leading global hotel groups such as Marriott, Carlson Rezidor, InterContinental and Starwood also have new properties under development.
The Saudi Arabia Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Saudi Arabia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Saudi tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.