BMI View: After anaemic growth of 0.1% in 2014 when the consumer electronics market was subdued by recession, we forecast a steep decline in spending in 2015 as a result of significant depreciation of the dinar against the US dollar forecast by our Country Risk team for Serbia. T he Serbian consumer electronics market is already one of the least lucrative in per capita terms in the region, and dinar depreciation will decrease the affordability of imported hardware. The impact will be most severe in the PC and AV segments due to low margins for vendors and retailers, requiring the vast majority of price increases from depreciation be passed on to consumers. Meanwhile , the handset segment should fare better, supported by a host of factors including smartphone upgrade demand, wider margins for vendors and retailers, operator support and the greater necessity of handset ownership. Looking beyond the short term disruption from depreciation, as the economic environment strengthens we believe the low penetration rate in key device categories will benefit vendors across the market. Despit e a contraction of 7.7% in 2015, we fore cast a CAGR of 4.9 % over 2015-2019, with the market expected to return to growth in 2016 before accelerating to a much stronger trajectory from 2017.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Computer Hardware Sales: USD328.8mn in 2014 to USD289.8mn in 2015; -11.9% in US dollar terms. Low device penetration rates offer potential for faster growth rates compared to developed markets, but in 2015 the market will contract sharply as a result of dinar depreciation.
AV Sales : USD166.0mn in 2014 to USD138.0mn in 2015; -16.9% in US dollar terms. The AV segment is forecast to underperform in a climate of depreciation, which will hit demand for TV sets that remain a 'big ticket' purchase for most Serbian households, with the decline extended by the continued cannibalisation of digital camera volumes by smartphones.
Handset Sales :...
The Serbia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Serbia.
BMI Research's Serbia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Serbia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian consumer electronics market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.