BMI View: We adjusted our outlook for 2016 down slightly in Q216 to reflect a weaker economic outlook, but our bullish medium term outlook is unchanged. Stronger economic growth and dinar appreciation are expected to drive growth in purchasing power, a trend that is key to our outlook for a marked improvement in PC, AV and handset spending 2017-2020. These economic trends are expected to deepen the market as households gain sufficient disposable income for the first time, while also offering vendors the opportunity to grow sales and widen margins through an easing of price sensitivity in the mid-market. Our forecast envisages a CAGR of 6.4% for total consumer electronics device spending 2016-2020 to a total of USD917mn in 2020.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD249mn in 2016 to USD340mn in 2020, corresponding to a CAGR of 5.7%. Pent-up demand after deferred purchases in 2014 and 2015, alongside income growth, will put the computer hardware market on a stronger trajectory from 2017.
AV Sales : USD135mn in 2016 to USD175mn in 2020, corresponding to a CAGR of 4.8%. The AV market will not return to previous highs, but smart and Ultra-HD TV set upgrades and a stabilisation of the digital camera market will make product trends more supportive and enable a return to growth from 2017.
Handset Sales : USD305mn in 2016 to USD402mn in 2020, corresponding to a CAGR of 7.7%. Smartphone upgrade demand will drive the market over the medium term, though as a result of saturation we do envisage a deceleration in the later years of our forecast.
|Deepening Market And Easing Price Sensitivity Support Positive Outlook|
|Serbia Household Income Breakdown (2016-2020)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
The Serbia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Serbia.
BMI Research's Serbia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Serbia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.