Serbia Food & Drink Report

Published 27 August 2015

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$1,295.00
Serbia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: A series of planned austerity measures and high unemployment will continue to weigh on domestic demand in Serbia during 2015. The austerity measures entail reducing the size of the public sector (which accounts for close to one-fifth of the workforce), together with public sector wage and pension cuts, which will severely reduce disposable income s and weigh on household consumption. A sput tering recovery in the eurozone and a long recession in Russia will suppress exports, prompting us to forecast economic growth for Serbia for 2015 of just 0. 3 %. We are forecasting overall household consumption to contract by 1.0% in 2015 and also forecast total food consumption in Serbia to expand by only a modest 1.1% in local currency terms over the same period.

Headline Industry Data (local currency):

  • Total food consumption growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015: +1.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +1.9%.

  • Alcoholic drinks sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +1.1%; CAGR to 2019: +1.9%.

  • Soft drinks sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +1.8%; CAGR to 2019: +8.5%.

  • Total mass grocery sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +2.8%; CAGR to 2019: +4.7%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Casino And Sodibal Open Second Belgrade Store : The partnership between France-based retailer Casino and Serbian Sodibal (signed in early 2013) announced the opening of its second store in Belgrade in May 2015. This marked a slowdown on the original plans, which were expected to lead to the opening of up to seven Casino supermarkets in Serbia by the end of 2013. The first Casino-branded supermarket was opened in the capital in 2014 and offers around 2,500 items, including 300 'Casino' own brand products imported from France. The new store was launched under the 'Leader Price' fascia as a discount store, offering some 400 products branded Casino, Leader Price and from local suppliers.

Ferrero Buys Land For Hazelnut Plantation : Italian confectionery company Ferrero...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
17
Confectionery
17
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
18
Snack Foods
19
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
19
Meat
19
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Serbia 2012-2019)
20
Dairy
20
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
21
Pasta
21
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
21
Drink
22
Alcoholic Drinks
22
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
23
Soft Drinks
24
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
25
Hot Drinks
27
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
28
Mass Grocery Retail
30
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
31
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% of total)
32
Trade
33
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2019)
33
Macroeconomic Forecast
34
Economic Analysis
34
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315
41
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
45
Market Overview
47
Food
47
Food Consumption
47
Food Production
47
Leading Players
47
Confectionery
48
Canned Food
49
Trade
49
Agriculture
49
Dairy Production
51
Sugar Production
52
Drink
52
Beer
52
Spirits
54
Wine
54
Soft Drinks
55
Hot Drinks
57
Mass Grocery Retail
57
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Serbia 2006-2010)
59
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Serbia 2006-2010)
59
Industry Trends And Developments
60
Food
60
Key Industry Trends And Developments
60
Drink
67
Key Industry Trends And Developments
67
Mass Grocery Retail
70
Key Industry Trends And Developments
70
Competitive Landscape
75
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Food & Drink Sector
75
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
76
Company Profile
78
Apatinska Pivara
78
Arteska International Company
80
Bambi
82
BB Minaqua
84
Beogradska Industrija Piva (BIP)
86
Carlsberg Serbia/Pivara Celarevo
88
Coca-Cola/IBP Beograd AD
90
Delhaize/Delta Holding
92
Knjaz Milo-
95
Metro
97
Mercator
99
Mladost-Sid
102
Mondi Serbia
103
Sunoko
105
Veropoulos
108
Global Industry Overview
110
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q115 Roundup
117
Demographic Forecast
119
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Serbia 1990-2025)
120
Table: Population By Age Group (Serbia 1990-2025)
120
Table: Population By Age Group % (Serbia 1990-2025)
121
Glossary
123
Food & Drink
123
Mass Grocery Retail
123
Methodology
125
Industry Forecast Methodology
125
Sector-Specific Methodology
126
Sources
126
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
127
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
128
Table: Weighting
129

The Serbia Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Serbia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Serbia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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