Serbia Food & Drink Report

Published 27 February 2015

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Serbia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: A series of planned austerity measures and high unemployment will continue to weigh on domestic demand in Serbia during 2015. The austerity measures entail reducing the size of the public sector (which accounts for close to one-fifth of the workforce), together with public sector wage and pension cuts, which will severely reduce disposable income and weigh on households' consumption sentiment. A sputtering recovery in the eurozone, and a looming recession in Russia will suppress exports, prompting us to forecast economic contraction for Serbia for 2015 of 0.7%. We are forecasting overall household consumption to contract by 1.0% in 2015 and also forecast total food consumption in Serbia to expand by only a modest 1.1% in local currency terms over the same period.

Headline Industry Data (local currency):

  • Total food consumption growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015: +1.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +1.9%

  • Alcoholic drinks sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +1.1%; CAGR to 2019: +1.9%

  • Soft drinks sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +1.8%; CAGR to 2019: +8.5%

  • Total mass grocery sales growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +2.8%; CAGR to 2019: +4.7%

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Mid Europa Partners Move On Danube Foods Group : The Mid Europa Partners' move to secure a controlling stake in Danube Foods Group was widely reported in February 2015. The acquisition by Mid Europa was for an undisclosed sum and will bring with it some of Serbia's most recognisable food brands and subsidiaries, including Imlek (dairy), Knajaz Milos (mineral water) and Bambi (confectionery).

Coca-Cola To End Fresh & Co Production In Subotica : The C oca-Cola Company announced in January 2015 that it was to end production of its Fresh & Co range of juices in Subotica by the end of the year. The company is investing EUR3.8mn into a state-of-the-art juice production plant in Belgrade which will, when completed, incorporate its current Subotica operations. The...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
18
Confectionery
18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
19
Canned Food
20
Snack Foods
20
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
21
Meat
21
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Serbia 2011-2018)
21
Dairy
22
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
22
Pasta
23
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
23
Oils And Fats
23
Drink
24
Alcoholic Drinks
24
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
25
Soft Drinks
27
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
28
Hot Drinks
30
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
31
Mass Grocery Retail
32
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
34
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% of total)
34
Trade
35
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2018)
36
Macroeconomic Forecast
37
Table: Economic Activity (Serbia 2009-2018)
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414
43
Serbia Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Market Overview
49
Food
49
Food Consumption
49
Food Production
49
Leading Players
49
Confectionery
50
Canned Food
51
Trade
51
Agriculture
51
Dairy Production
53
Sugar Production
54
Drink
54
Beer
54
Spirits
56
Wine
56
Soft Drinks
57
Hot Drinks
58
Mass Grocery Retail
59
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Serbia 2005-2014)
61
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Serbia 2005-2014)
61
Industry Trends And Developments
62
Food
62
Key Industry Trends And Developments
62
Drink
68
Key Industry Trends And Developments
68
Mass Grocery Retail
71
Key Industry Trends And Developments
71
Competitive Landscape
75
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Food & Drink Sector
75
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
76
Company Profile
78
Bambi
78
Mondi Serbia
80
Mladost-Sid
82
Sunoko
83
Coca-Cola/IBP Beograd AD
86
Beogradska Industrija Piva (BIP)
88
Carlsberg Serbia/Pivara Celarevo
90
Apatinska Pivara
92
Arteska International Company
94
BB Minaqua
96
Knjaz Milo-
98
Mercator
100
Veropoulos
103
Delhaize/Delta Holding
105
Metro
108
Global Industry Overview
110
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
116
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
118
Demographic Forecast
119
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
120
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
121
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
122
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
122
Glossary
123
Food & Drink
123
Mass Grocery Retail
123
Methodology
125
Industry Forecast Methodology
125
Sector-Specific Methodology
126
Sources
126
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
127
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
128
Table: Weighting
129

The Serbia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Serbia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Serbia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc