Serbia Freight Transport Report

Published 17 November 2014

  • 52 pages
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Serbia Freight Transport Report

Following a year in which BMI believes saw mixed trends in different freight modes, 2014 will signal slow to moderate growth across all freight modes.

Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 6.15% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 7.15% in 2013.

Road freight is to grow at a highest pace, with 7% increase predicted, although rail freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 1% in 2014. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn but quickly recovered its pre-2009 freight volumes, only to lose a quarter of them in 2012. However, it will be boosted by a large number of railway infrastructure upgrades.

The country finally found strategic partner for the national airline and rebranded Jat Airways as Air Serbia.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.2%

  • 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.4%

  • 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 7.4%

  • 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%

  • 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 6.2%.

Key Industry Trends

Russia to Modernise Serbia's Rail Infrastructure : Russian Railways (RZD) via its subsidiary Russian Railways International will build new and reconstruct existing railway infrastructure in Serbia and will also supply diesel trains for Serbian Railways. The respective contract was signed by Russian Railways International and Serbian Railways top executives in Serbia's capital Belgrade in May 2013. All infrastructure works are expected to be completed within five years.

Jat Links-Up with Etihad, Gets Rebranded : The new Serbian national carrier was officially launched on October 25 2013. Air Serbia is the product of rebranding Jat Airways after 49% of the latter was sold to Etihad Airways. Apart from new name and link-up with Etihad, Serbia's carrier also boasts new aircraft, new routes and will receive further investment.

New Serbia-Hungary Road Border...

BMI Industry View
7
Serbia - 2015
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport - 2015
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Serbia - 2015
13
Table: Air Freight
13
Table: Rail Freight
14
Table: Road Freight
14
Table: Inland Waterway Freight
15
Table: Trade Overview
15
Table: Key Trade Indicators
16
Table: Top Import Destinations
17
Table: Top Export Destinations
18
Market Overview
19
Serbia - 2015
19
Industry Trends And Developments
22
Serbia 2015
22
Company Profile
24
Air Serbia
24
-eleznice Srbije (Serbian Railways)
27
Political Outlook
30
Domestic Politics
30
Table: SERBIA Political Overview
34
Long-Term Political Outlook
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
41
Table: Economic Activity (Serbia 2009-2018)
45
Demographic Forecast
46
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
47
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
48
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
49
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
49
Methodology
50
Industry Forecast Methodology
50
Sector-Specific Methodology
51
Sources
52

The Serbia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Serbia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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