BMI View: Serbia will remain an unattractive market for multinational drugmakers in comparison to its regional neighbours. Government cost-containment, via severe drug price cuts, and continued economic issues will dampen the country's growth outlook.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: RSD91.42bn (USD840mn) in 2015 to RSD88.08bn (USD766mn) in 2016; -3.7% in local currency terms and -8.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 3 16 .
Healthcare: RSD405.24bn (USD3.73bn) in 2015 to RSD414.284bn (USD3.60bn) in 2016; 2.2% in local currency terms and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 3 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.050||0.840||0.770||0.750||0.750||0.770||0.810|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.36||2.30||2.04||1.94||1.88||1.85||1.83|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||23.0||22.6||21.3||20.6||20.4||20.3||20.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.550||3.730||3.600||3.620||3.670||3.790||4.020|
In our Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Serbia is ranked 18th out of 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with an unchanged score of 43.0 compared with the previous quarter. Its position also remains unchanged, sitting one place above Uzbekistan (36.5) and just below Kazakhstan (45.9). Serbia scores considerably below the regional average score of 52.4 in Q416. Serbia will continue to be a challenging market for foreign investors, because of the prevalence of corruption, a large-scale black-market economy, and the poor state of the country's infrastructure and finances, in both public and private spheres.
The privatisation of drugmaker Galenika appears to finally be edging closer, with three bids received by the state in late July 2016.
In August 2016, a Draft Law on Health Insurance was announced that will enter parliamentary procedure during the autumn to be adopted by the end of 2016.
In August 2016, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic announced the government's programme which included pay rises for healthcare personnel.
BMI Economic View
Real GDP growth will slow in Serbia as the new government resumes an ambitious austerity agenda, which will act as a constraint on domestic demand growth. Although modest, Serbia's recovery will remain on track, driven mainly by the export sector, underpinning our forecast for GDP growth of 1.7% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.
BMI Political View
Geo and Regional politics are the biggest headaches the new government faces politically. Ethnic tensions are threatening the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina and poor relations with Croatia are delaying Serbia's EU ascension. Domestically, with its large majority in parliament, the government is tasked with ensuring that it implements its own manifesto effectively and overcoming the political protestations of the newly elected right-wing parties.
The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Serbia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.