BMI View: The Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market represents a challenging environment for foreign drugmakers. Government cost containment, implemented through severe drug price cuts by the RFZO, will dampen growth. Furthermore, an increasing reliance on private health spending will impact pharmaceutical sales as the worsening macroeconomic outlook will reduce consumer spending power.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: RSD92.43bn (USD1.05bn) in 2014 to RSD91.42bn (USD820mn) in 2015; -1.1% in local currency terms and -21.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 15.
Healthcare: RSD389.48bn (USD4.40bn) in 2014 to RSD384.91bn (USD3.45bn) in 2015; -1.2% in local currency terms and -21.6% in US dollar terms. Forecasts unchanged from Q 4 15 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.066||1.045||0.820||0.786||0.815||0.867||0.932|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.29||2.13||2.09||1.97||1.88||1.76||1.69|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||23.7||23.7||23.8||23.9||24.2||24.6||25.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.502||4.404||3.454||3.296||3.363||3.522||3.724|
Serbia's Pharmaceutical RRI score for Q415 is 39.7 out of 100, making it the 18th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. This is a decline compared to Q415, where it was ranked 15th with a score of 43.3. The decline is primarily the result of the depreciation of the Serbian dinar against the US dollar and the subsequent impact of that on market values and growth rates as measured in US dollar terms. The country's overall score remains below the regional average of 49.6.
In December 2015, the Serbian economy minister announced new plans for the privatisation of state-owned pharmaceutical firm, Galenika. It is hoped to be completed by May 2016.
In November 2015, the Serbian government agreed to invest in health care institutions, in order to provide a better quality of healthcare services.
In October 2015, the Serbian government's new regulations regarding drug pricing took effect.
BMI Economic View
The Serbian government's fiscal consolidation drive will continue over the coming quarters. Although politically popular, the government will remain committed to cutting public sector wages and pensions to adhere to IMF loan conditions.
BMI Political View
Serbia's social stability will deteriorate in the coming months, and has prompted us to revise down our short-term political risk index for the country. Nevertheless, social instability will not result in the ousting of Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic's cabinet, which will remain in power for the duration of its term ending in 2018. The ongoing migrant crisis is a cause for concern, placing strain on domestic and region-wide political relations.
The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Serbia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.