Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market remains one of the least attractive within the CEE region for foreign drugmakers. Government cost containment, implemented through severe drug price cuts by the RFZO, will dampen growth. Furthermore, an increasing reliance on private health spending will impact pharmaceutical sales as the worsening macroeconomic outlook will reduce consumer spending power.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: RSD91.42bn (USD840mn) in 2015 to RSD87.40bn (USD762mn) in 2016; -4.4% in local currency terms and -9.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 116 .

Healthcare: RSD372.29bn (USD3.42bn) in 2015 to RSD362.75bn (USD3.15bn) in 2016; -2.6% in local currency terms and -7.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 116 .

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Serbia 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.045 0.821 0.790 0.820 0.877 0.946 0.988
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.15 2.02 1.89 1.81 1.70 1.64 1.58
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9
Health spending, USDbn 4.403 3.459 3.296 3.363 3.522 3.724 3.810

Risk/Reward Index

Serbia has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 44.2 out of 100, placing it 18 th out of the 20 pharmaceutical markets in Emerging Europe. Serbia's Q216 RRI score is higher than last quarter (39.7) but its position remains unchanged in our regional matrix, above Uzbekistan (40.9) and below Croatia (46.0). The Serbian market's key selling points include its advantageous geographical position, which allows easy access to the rest of Europe, a largely untapped pharmaceutical market and the low cost and abundant supply of skilled labour - a position helped by a growing network of free trade agreements. However, Serbia will continue to be a challenging market for foreign investors, because of the prevalence of corruption, a large-scale black-market economy, and the poor state of the country's infrastructure and finances, in both public and private spheres. Furthermore, its Risks score has fallen slightly from the previous quarter, highlighting the challenging operating environment in the country.

Latest Updates

  • In March 2016, Serbia's Minister of Economy said that the sale of state-owned pharmaceutical firm, Galenika, was imminent.

  • In March 2016, the Serbian Prime Minister called for early Parliamentary election in April with his plans to reform the healthcare sector at the centre of his campaign.

  • In February 2016, the World Bank announced its intentions to assist in the development of the Serbian economy through the implementation of digital technology, particularly in healthcare.

BMI Economic View

Serbia's economic rebound will remain on track in 2016, but growth will remain tepid, as fiscal consolidation measures and structural reforms will prevent a stronger recovery in domestic demand.

BMI Political View

The opening of accession negotiations between Serbia and the EU at end-2015 offers little cause for optimism that the country will join the union any time soon. We see limited possibility that Serbia fulfils the EU's main condition for EU membership - normalising relations with its former province Kosovo, as nationalist elements in Kosovo will obstruct progress on cooperation with Serbia. Meanwhile, Belgrade will continue to deny Kosovo's sovereignty for the foreseeable future.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Serbia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2014-2020)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Serbia 2014-2020)
28
Industry Risk/Reward Index
29
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
29
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Risks
36
Regulatory Review
38
Intellectual Property Environment
39
Pricing Regime
43
Reimbursement Regime
45
Market Overview
47
Healthcare Sector
48
Table: Healthcare Resources (Serbia 2010-2015)
51
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Serbia 2010-2015)
51
Table: Healthcare Activity (Serbia 2010-2015)
52
Research & Development
52
Clinical Trials
53
Epidemiology
54
Competitive Landscape
58
Research-Based Industry
58
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
58
Generic Drugmakers
59
Pharmaceutical Distribution
59
Company Profile
60
Hemofarm (Stada)
60
Galenika
63
Demographic Forecast
66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Serbia 2005-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group (Serbia 2005-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Serbia 2005-2025)
68
Glossary
70
Methodology
72
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
72
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
72
Notes On Methodology
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
74
Index Overview
75
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
75
Indicator Weightings
76

The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Serbia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.