Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price

BMI View: Serbia will remain an unattractive market for multinational drugmakers in comparison to its regional neighbours. Government cost-containment, via severe drug price cuts, and continued economic issues will dampen the country's growth outlook.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: RSD91.42bn (USD840mn) in 2015 to RSD87.40bn (USD760mn) in 2016; -4.4% in local currency terms and -9.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 2 16 .

Healthcare: RSD406.31bn (USD3.73bn) in 2015 to RSD416.04bn (USD3.62bn) in 2016; 2.4% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q 2 16 .

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Serbia 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.040 0.840 0.760 0.780 0.840 0.900 0.940
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.36 2.03 1.84 1.76 1.67 1.60 1.55
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 23.0 22.5 21.0 20.6 20.2 20.0 19.8
Health spending, USDbn 4.550 3.730 3.620 3.810 4.140 4.520 4.760

Risk/Reward Index

In our Q316 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Serbia is ranked 18th out of 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with a downgraded score of 43.0 compared with the previous quarter (44.0). Its position remains unchanged in the matrix despite a worse score, above Uzbekistan (40.9) and below Kazakhstan (43.5). Serbia scores considerably below the regional average score of 52.2 in Q316. Serbia will continue to be a challenging market for foreign investors, because of the prevalence of corruption, a large-scale black-market economy, and the poor state of the country's infrastructure and finances, in both public and private spheres.

Latest Updates

  • Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic was re-elected in April 2016, with reform of the country's healthcare sector at the forefront of his campaign.

  • In April, the Serbian government announced a tender process for 25% of pharmaceutical manufacturer Galenikam, setting the starting price at just EUR7mn (USD7.95mn).

  • In March 2016, the World Bank vice president for Europe and Central Asia stated that reforms to Serbia's public healthcare sector are key to accelerating the country's accession to the EU.

BMI Economic View

The Serbian economy will continue to recover from the 2014 recession in the coming two years, although growth will remain dragged down by fiscal consolidation measures. Fixed investment will be the main driver of growth in 2016, underpinned by recovering production in the mining and energy sectors and a rebound in foreign direct investment.

BMI Political View

Serbia's ruling Progressive Party (SNS) emerged as the winner of the April 24 general election, which will reaffirm public support for Prime Minister Alexandar Vucic's austerity agenda and structural reform programme. However, with ultranationalist parties now also entering parliament, the passage of legislation will now be a more difficult and protracted process.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Serbia 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2020)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Serbia 2014-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Review
Intellectual Property Environment
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Market Overview
Healthcare Sector
Table: Healthcare Resources (Serbia 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Serbia 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Serbia 2010-2015)
Research & Development
Clinical Trials
Competitive Landscape
Research-Based Industry
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
Generic Drugmakers
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
Company Profile
Hemofarm (Stada)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Serbia 2005-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Serbia 2005-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Serbia 2005-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Serbia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.