Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 17 June 2015

  • 107 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: A focus on reining in Serbia's bloated public sector following an agreement with the IMF will inevitably lead to cuts in healthcare spending. Furthermore, Serbia's healthcare authorities will continue to cut prices to reduce their pharmaceutical expenditure as a means to contain healthcare costs. We expect the growth outlook for the Serbian pharmaceutical market to worsen in the short - term as household and government consumption decline.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: RSD92.43bn (USD1.05bn) in 2014 to RSD97.15bn (USD872mn) in 2015; +5.1% in local currency terms and --16.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q215.

Healthcare: RSD401.44bn (USD4.54bn) in 2014 to RSD415.54bn (USD3.73bn) in 2015; +3.5% in local currency terms and -17.9% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised downwards from Q215 due to historical revision of data.

Risk/Reward Index

Serbia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q315 is 45.7 out of 100, making it the 15th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. This is a decline compared to Q215, where it was ranked 11th with a score of 50.1. The decline is primarily the result of the depreciation of the Serbian dinar against the US dollar and the subsequent impact of that on market values and growth rates as measured in US dollar terms. The country's overall score remains below the regional average of 49.5.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In June 2015, talks between the Serbian government and private investors fell through over the sale of state-owned drugmaker Galenika.

  • In May 2015, the health ministry announced that the prices of around 930 drugs in Serbia are set to become up to 30% cheaper. Prices for drugs related to Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease, psychosis, depression, osteoporosis, migraine, benign prostatic hyperplasia, bacterial and fungal infections, bronchial asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and menopause were to be reduced. The lowering of these prices...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2011-2019)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2013-2019)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Serbia 2013-2019)
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
37
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
43
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Table: Serbian Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
48
Healthcare Sector
50
Healthcare Insurance
52
Table: Healthcare Resources
53
Table: Healthcare Activity
53
Table: Healthcare Personnel
54
Clinical Trials
55
Regulatory Development
57
Registration Renewals
59
Intellectual Property Environment
60
Promotion
61
Pricing Regime
64
Price Developments
65
Reimbursement Regime
66
Reimbursement Developments
67
Competitive Landscape
68
Research-Based Industry
68
Generic Drugmakers
68
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
69
Company Activity
69
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail
69
Company Profile
72
Galenika
72
GlaxoSmithKline
76
Hemofarm (Stada)
79
Krka
83
Merck
87
Novartis
89
Pfizer
91
Sanofi
93
Zdravlje Actavis
95
Demographic Forecast
98
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Serbia 1990-2025)
99
Table: Population By Age Group (Serbia 1990-2025)
99
Table: Population By Age Group % (Serbia 1990-2025)
100
Glossary
102
Methodology
104
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
104
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
104
Notes On Methodology
105
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
106
Index Overview
107
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
107
Indicator Weightings
108

The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Serbia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc