Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 14 January 2015

  • 123 pages
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$1,295.00
Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The combination of a deteriorating economic outlook, rising political risks and industry-specific challenges place downside pressure on prospects for Serbia ' s pharmaceutical market. In light of this situation, we do not e xpect any meaningful investments by foreign firms. The key commercial opportunity is locally-made generic drugs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: RSD90.46bn (USD1.06bn) in 2013 to RSD99.03bn (USD1.13bn) in 2014; +9.5% in local currency terms and +6.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly upwards since Q414.

Healthcare: RSD376.28bn (USD4.42bn) in 2013 to RSD398.91bn (USD4.54bn) in 2014; +6.0% in local currency terms and +2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly upwards since Q414.

Risk/Reward Index (RRI)

Serbia's Pharmaceutical RRI score for Q115 is 48.9 out of 100, making it the 14th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. The country's overall score remains below the regional average of 51.0.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In December 2014, Serbia's Association of Innovative Medicine Manufacturers (INOVIA) announced that from 2015 manufacturers of innovative medicines will have to disclose full details when promoting prescription medicines in the country.

  • Medicines will become cheaper from the beginning of 2015, with co-payments for listed drugs not to be more than RSD50 (USD0.51), according to a December 2014 statement by Momcilo Babic, director of the Health Insurance Fund (RFZO).

  • Serbia was not facing any shortage of medicines as a result of lower prices, according to a November 2014 statement by Milica Bajectic, an official at the Department of Drug Administration of the RFZO.

  • In October 2014, the health ministries of Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia were considering the possibility of joint tenders for the procurement of medicines and medical devices, according to Director of Slovenian Health Insurance Institute Samo Fakin.

  • The lack of appropriate procurement...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
26
Generic Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
29
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
30
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2018)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts Local Currency (Serbia 2012-2018)
34
Other Healthcare Data
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Table: Economic Activity (Serbia 2009-2018)
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Serbia Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
49
Market Overview
51
Industry Trends And Developments
52
Epidemiology
52
Healthcare Sector
54
Table: Major General And Specialised Hospitals
58
Healthcare Insurance
59
Healthcare Debts
61
Clinical Trials
62
Regulatory Development
64
Table: Number Of Products On The Drugs List
64
Registration Renewals
66
Healthcare Sector Corruption
67
Intellectual Property Environment
69
Promotion
71
Pricing Regime
73
Price Developments
75
Reimbursement Regime
76
Table: Leading Suppliers Of Medicines To RZZO, By Value (RSDmn)
80
Table: Cost Of Prescriptions Covered By RZZO By Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification (RSD '000)
80
Competitive Landscape
82
Investment Climate
82
Pharmaceutical Industry
82
Table: Companies Involved In The Serbian Pharmaceutical Industry
83
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
84
Domestic Company Activity
85
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
86
Table: Proposed Members Of Serbia's Pharmaceutical Industry Association
86
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail
87
Company Profile
90
Hemofarm (Stada)
90
Galenika
95
Zdravlje Actavis
100
Jugoremedija
104
Pfizer
107
GlaxoSmithKline
109
Novartis
111
Sanofi
113
Merck & Co
115
Krka
117
Demographic Forecast
121
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
122
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
123
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
124
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
124
Glossary
125
Methodology
127
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
127
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
127
Notes On Methodology
128
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
129
Ratings Overview
130
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
130
Indicator Weightings
131

The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Serbia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc