Serbia Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Serbia Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Serbian economy will continue to recover from the 2014 recession in the coming two years, aided by Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic's credible market-friendly and structural reform of the public sector, along with the prospects of EU accession providing a policy anchor for the Serbian government. With a decrease in the unemployment rate and growth in household income, indications for retail growth remain promising.

Headline Household Spending
2014-2020
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Eurostat

Key Views And Developments

  • While we maintain a cautious outlook for the Serbian retail sector, we expect strengthening household spending to show from 2017 across our forecast period to 2020. In 2016, total household spending is forecast to show almost a 3% contraction in US dollar terms but then to grow again by 6.6% in 2017, reaching 7.3% in 2020.

  • The total population will decrease by an average of 0.4% annually over the forecast period - one of the fastest rates in the region.

  • Unemployment will decline from 20% this year to 15% by the end of the forecast period thanks to recovering economic activity.

  • Swedish homewares giant IKEA has recently started building a EUR70mn (USD78.96mn) store in Belgrade. The facility, which will reportedly be the retailer's first store in the country, is expected to open by Q317. French sports retailer Decathlon has also announced that it is to open a flagship store in Belgrade, marking its entry onto the Serbian market.

  • A sign of the growing sophistication of the retail market is the opening of the first Zara Home store in Serbia in spring 2016 in the USCE shopping centre in Belgrade and the announcement by fashion chain Mango that it is to introduce men's and children's fashion into its stores in the capital city

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Headline Retail Forecast
11
Table: Total Household Spending (Serbia 2013-2020)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Serbia 2013-2020)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Serbia 2013-2020)
16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Serbia 2013-2020)
17
Retail Sector Forecast
19
Food, Drink & Tobacco
20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Serbia 2013-2020)
20
Clothing & Footwear
21
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Serbia 2013-2020)
21
Household Goods
22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Serbia, 2012-2019)
22
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Income Data (Serbia 2013-2020)
25
Table: Labour Market Data (Serbia 2013-2020)
29
Demographic Forecast
30
Table: Total Population (Serbia 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Young Children (Serbia 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Children (Serbia 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Serbia 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Young People (Serbia 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Serbia 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Young Adults (Serbia 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Serbia 2013-2020)
35
Industry Risk/Reward Index
36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316
36
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
37
Rewards
37
Risks
38
Market Overview
40
Competitive Landscape
46
Clothing & Footwear
46
Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers
46
Household Goods
47
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers
47
Electronics
47
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
47
Department Stores
48
Table: Selected Department Store Retailers
48
E-Commerce
48
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers
48
Pharmacies
49
Table: Selected Pharmacies Retailers
49
Glossary
50
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
60
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.