Serbia Retail Report

Published 26 March 2015

  • 57 pages
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$1,295.00
Serbia Retail Report

BMI View: We expect that the Serbian retail sector will not begin to recover considerably in 2015 as the country continues to face numerous economic problems. Total household spending is anticipated to grow at stable rates in dinar terms ; however, the appreciation of the US dollar will deflate the total household spending figure in USD terms . Despite the slowdown, however, the market will continue to diversify.

A candidate for EU membership, Serbia has one of the closest economic and political ties with Russia among all of the European countries. When the members of the EU have firmly decided to impose sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine crisis, the Serbian government hesitated and remains highly approving of Russia as an ally. The Russian authorities have already expressed their gratitude to Serbia for its support by allowing the latter country's apple exporters to enjoy economic prerogatives in the vast Russian market among several other tools imposed to strengthen the ties between the two long-standing political allies. Moreover, Serbia is emerging as a destination for foreign investment from the Gulf countries, particularly the United Arab Emirates. The construction of a massive Belgrade waterfront project is set to start this summer, reinventing the quayside of Sava River, which will eventually be able to house 17,000 residents. Eagle Hills, an Emirati company, will invest a stunning USD3.6bn to capitalise on the city's growing affluent population. BMI projects that the number of households in the USD50,000+ income bracket will expand by 25% in the next five years.

However, middle-class Serbians will first have to cope with the country's ailing economy. While the affluent population in the country remains relatively insensitive to economic shifts, the average Serbian households are threatened by sluggish economic growth as the unemployment rate remains very high at 22.0% in 2015. The country is receiving a USD1.3bn loan from International...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Serbia 2011-2018)
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Serbia 2011-2018)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Serbia 2011-2018)
16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Serbia 2011-2018)
16
Retail Sector Forecast
18
Food & Drink
18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Serbia 2011-2018)
19
Clothing & Footwear
19
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Serbia 2011-2018)
20
Household Goods
20
Table: Household Goods Spending (Serbia 2011-2018)
21
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
22
Table: Household Income Data (Serbia 2011-2018)
22
Table: Unemployment Rate (Serbia 2011-2018)
24
Demographic Forecast
25
Table: Total Population (Serbia 2011-2018)
26
Table: Population: Young Children (Serbia 2011-2018)
26
Table: Population: Children (Serbia 2011-2018)
26
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Serbia 2011-2018)
27
Table: Population: Young People (Serbia 2011-2018)
27
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Serbia 2011-2018)
27
Table: Population: Young Adults (Serbia 2011-2018)
28
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Serbia 2011-2018)
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Table: Economic Activity (Serbia 2009-2018)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Serbia Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
36
Department Stores
38
MGR
38
Consumer Electronics
39
Automotives
39
Competitive Landscape
41
Glossary
44
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
55
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc