Serbia Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Serbia Retail Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Serbia Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our outlook for Serbia is steadily improving as the government takes divisive action to implement structural and fiscal reforms. We believe this will lessen Serbia's exposure to global economic fluctuation, lower the unemployment rate and help support growth in household income. Many retail sectors can expect to benefit from the improvements which lie on the horizon. We believe that communications and tourism will offer the most potential.

Headline Household Spending
2014-2020
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Eurostat

Key Views and Developments

  • In local currency terms, total household spending is set to remain increase in 2016 and continue expanding steadily over the forecast period. In US dollar terms, meanwhile, the figure will remain flat at USD26mn.

  • In dinar terms, net household income will grow by a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% over 2016-2020 thanks to growing employment and rebounding wages towards the end of the forecast period.

  • The total population will decrease by an average of 0.4% annually over the forecast period - one of the fastest rates in the region.

  • Unemployment will decline from 17.0% this year to 14.8% by the end of the forecast period thanks to recovering economic activity.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Serbia 2012-2019)
17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Serbia 2012-2019)
18
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
18
Retail Sector Forecast
20
Food & Drink
21
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
22
Clothing & Footwear
22
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
23
Household Goods
23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Serbia, 2012-2019)
24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
25
Table: Household Income Data (Serbia 2012-2019)
26
Table: Labour Market Data (Serbia 2012-2019)
29
Demographic Forecast
30
Table: Total Population (Serbia 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Young Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: Young People (Serbia 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Serbia 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Serbia 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Serbia 2012-2019)
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: Economic Activity (Serbia 2010-2019)
39
Industry Risk/Reward Index
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
40
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
41
Rewards
41
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Competitive Landscape
47
Glossary
50
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
60
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.