Serbia Retail Report

Published 26 June 2015

  • 58 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Serbia Retail Report

BMI View: Compared with the other countries in Central and Eastern Europe , Serbia has a relatively poor economi c growth outlook. A l arge budget deficit and increasing public debt made the government respond with austerity measures, which will inevitably delay a faster expansion of the Serbian economy. Despite that, retailers continue to invest and expect to capitali s e on the country' s potential in the medium term.

Poor public finances paired with underdeveloped financial and legal systems are taking a toll on the Serbian economy. Real GDP contracted by 2.0% in 2014 as a result of high unemployment and weak economic activity of the country's main trade partners. The decline is set to prolong into this year with a projected contraction of 0.7%. Unlike in the recent decade when the economy was falling and rebounding because of populist decisions and fast accumulation of public debt, this year the slowdown will be a direct outcome of structural reforms. In February 2015, Serbia reached a stand-by agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which will allow the country the access to EUR1.2bn of emergency funds over a three-year period. In return, the Serbian government agreed to balance public finances, increase the stability of the country's financial system and implement structural reforms necessary for reducing unemployment and promoting employment growth. As a result, a more sustained economic expansion can be anticipated in the medium term, with a 3.3% rate of real GDP growth projected for 2017.

Expectations for the medium term can explain the current activity in the Serbian retail sector. Not only are retailers such as Delhaize Group and Gomex expanding their operations in the country, but also new players such as Casino Group and Schwarz Group have entered or are considering entering the market. Moreover, Abu Dhabi's investment group Eagle Hills has announced a EUR2.8bn Belgrade Waterfront residential, business and retail...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Serbia 2012-2019)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Serbia 2012-2019)
16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
16
Retail Sector Forecast
18
Food & Drink
18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
19
Clothing & Footwear
19
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
20
Household Goods
20
Table: Household Goods Spending (Serbia, 2012-2019)
21
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
22
Table: Household Income Data (Serbia 2012-2019)
22
Table: Labour Market Data (Serbia 2012-2019)
24
Demographic Forecast
25
Table: Total Population (Serbia 2012-2019)
25
Table: Population: Young Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
26
Table: Population: Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
26
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
26
Table: Population: Young People (Serbia 2012-2019)
27
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Serbia 2012-2019)
27
Table: Population: Young Adults (Serbia 2012-2019)
27
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Serbia 2012-2019)
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Industry Risk Reward Index
34
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Retail Risk/Reward Index
34
Serbia Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
37
Competitive Landscape
40
Glossary
44
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
55
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Serbia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Serbia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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