BMI View: After outperforming in the Singapore auto market in 2014, we expect volume brands to continue enjoying strong demand in 2015 on the back of a rising number of COEs, as well as a weak Japanese yen.
We previously highlighted in late 2013 that the proposed revision to the country's COE system would help mass market brands claw back market share from their premium segment counterparts, which had been outperforming before 2014 ( see 'New COE Regulation Could Reverse Sales Trends', September 17 2013). True enough, when the Land Transport Authority (LTA) introduced the additional horsepower criterion for Category A vehicles, most luxury brands were pushed out of it, which helped increase demand for volume brands in the segment.
This revision coincided with a rising quota of COEs in 2014 as an increasing number of cars were de-registered. Significantly, Toyota Motor regained the mantle of the top selling brand in 2014, a position it had held before 2011. We expect these dynamics to remain in play over the course of 2015, as the quota of COEs continues to expand due to the rising number of cars nearing their 10-year validity period, which will in turn keep demand for volume brands strong.
In October 2014, the LTA announced that it will cut the vehicle sales growth rate from 0.5% to 0.25% from February 2015 to January 2018. In addition to that, the authorities will also reduce the allocation of COEs to Category E. COEs issued are grouped into five categories, with the open category (Category E) being COEs that can be used for any vehicle type. Right now, 15.0% of COEs from deregistered vehicles in each of the other vehicle categories form the COE quota for the Open Category and this will be cut to 10.0% from February 2015.
While these policy changes will squeeze the overall supply of COEs, they will be balanced out by the rising number of vehicle de-registrations we expect in the next few years. In fact, the LTA recently announced an increase in the COEs over...
The Singapore Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Singapore Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Singapore.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Singapore to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Singaporean automotives market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.