Singapore Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Singapore Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The ruling PAP capitalised on positive sentiment amid Singapore's 50 th anniversary to put in an extremely strong performance in September's parliamentary elections, capturing 69.9% of the popular vote. However, we expect the party to broadly retain its policy strategy adopted in 2011, as its more consultative approach to governance appears to have paid significant dividends.

  • Singapore's ongoing restructuring drive continues, with the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) pushing ahead with stricter foreign labour rules despite an increasingly tight labour market. We believe that the tight labour market is acting as a significant headwind to real GDP growth, but do not see the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) easing measures in any significant way despite its landslide victory in September's parliamentary elections.

Key Forecast Changes

  • Following a deceleration in real GDP growth to 2.2% in 2015 , we believe that the ec onomy will cool further to a 1.9% rate of expansion in 2016 . Singapore's labour intensive manufacturing industry is losing competitiveness as a result of an extremely tight labour market, and along with a difficult external environment, this will cap growth over the near-term.

Key Risks

  • The Singapore dollar has witnessed significant selling pressure as a result of broad-based weakness among its peer currencies, and a larger-than-expected depreciation in the Chinese yuan would deepen the SGD's woes. This is a key downside risk to our end-year forecast of SGD1.5000/USD.

  • Despite Singapore's sound fundamentals, the confluence of weak external demand (led by a rapidly slowing Chinese economy) and domestic economic restructuring could give rise to a technical recession over the coming quarters.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Singapore 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.9 2.2 1.9 2.2
Nominal GDP, USDbn 294.5 280.4 274.3 291.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.1 -0.5 1.0 2.5
Exchange rate SGD/USD, eop 1.32 1.42 1.48 1.45
Budget balance, % of GDP 1.3 -0.2 0.3 0.8
Current account balance, % of GDP 20.0 21.5 19.5 17.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
PAP Consolidating Position As Elections Draw Nearer
8
Table : Political Over vie w
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Quality Growth Achievable Despite Long-Term Slowdown
14
table : Economic Activity
14
Fiscal Policy
15
Fiscal Evolution No Threat To Business Environment
15
table : Fiscal Policy
16
Monetary Policy
17
MAS Increasingly Likely To Ease
17
table : Monetary Policy
17
Currency Forecast
19
SGD To Remain Under Pressure
19
table : Current Account
19
Table : BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Singapore Economy To 2024
23
Solid Growth Trajectory To 2024
23
Table : Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
table : Operational Risk
28
Market Size And Utilities
29
table : Asia - Market Size & Utilities Risk
30
International Security Risk
34
table : Asia - Interstate Securit y Risk
34
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
37
table : Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data & Forecasts
38
table : Healthcare Expenditure Trends , Historical Data & Forecasts
38
Telecommunications
39
table : Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
40
Other Key Sectors
45
Table : Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
45
Table : Defence & Security Sector Key Indicators
45
Table : Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
45
Table : Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
46
Table : Autos Sector Key Indicators
46
Table : Freight Key Indicators
46
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
47
Global Outlook
47
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events
47
Table : Global Assumptions
47
Table : Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
48
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
48
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
49

Assess your risk exposure in Singapore with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Singapore with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
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