Singapore Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Singapore Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The ruling PAP capitalised on positive sentiment amid Singapore's 50 th anniversary to put in an extremely strong performance in September's parliamentary elections, capturing 69.9% of the popular vote. However, we expect the party to broadly retain its policy strategy adopted in 2011, as its more consultative approach to governance appears to have paid significant dividends.

  • Singapore's ongoing restructuring drive continues, with the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) pushing ahead with stricter foreign labour rules despite an increasingly tight labour market. We believe that the tight labour market is acting as a significant headwind to real GDP growth, but do not see the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) easing measures in any significant way despite its landslide victory in September's parliamentary elections.

Key Forecast Changes

  • Following a deceleration in real GDP growth to 2.2% in 2015 , we believe that the ec onomy will cool further to a 1.9% rate of expansion in 2016 . Singapore's labour intensive manufacturing industry is losing competitiveness as a result of an extremely tight labour market, and along with a difficult external environment, this will cap growth over the near-term.

Key Risks

  • The Singapore dollar has witnessed significant selling pressure as a result of broad-based weakness among its peer currencies, and a larger-than-expected depreciation in the Chinese yuan would deepen the SGD's woes. This is a key downside risk to our end-year forecast of SGD1.5000/USD.

  • Despite Singapore's sound fundamentals, the confluence of weak external demand (led by a rapidly slowing Chinese economy) and domestic economic restructuring could give rise to a technical recession over the coming quarters.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Singapore 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.9 2.2 1.9 2.2
Nominal GDP, USDbn 294.5 280.4 274.3 291.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.1 -0.5 1.0 2.5
Exchange rate SGD/USD, eop 1.32 1.42 1.48 1.45
Budget balance, % of GDP 1.3 -0.2 0.3 0.8
Current account balance, % of GDP 20.0 21.5 19.5 17.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
SGD, GDP To Falter As China Weighs
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Fiscal Accounts To Return To Surplus
11
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: SINGAPORE GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
12
Trade Prospects Remain Downbeat For 2016
12
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: SINGAPORE EXPORTS
14
TABLE: SINGAPORE IMPORTS
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
Monetary Policy
16
MAS Set To Ease Further In April
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Singaporean Economy To 2025
19
Solid Growth Trajectory To 2025
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
PAP Will Continue To Evolve Even If The Political System Doesn't
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Trade Procedures And Governance
31
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
31
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
31
TABLE: ASIA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
32
Vulnerability To Crime
33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
37
Global Macro Outlook
37
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
38
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
39
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41

Assess your risk exposure in Singapore with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Singapore with confidence.

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