Singapore Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Singapore Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The ruling PAP's landslide victory in 2015's elections, along with a comfortable by-election victory in May 2016, support our assertion that the party is experiencing a resurgence in popular support. However, we expect the party to broadly retain its policy strategy adopted in 2011, as its more consultative approach to governance appears to have paid significant dividends. This entails a continued emphasis on restructuring the labour force away from its dependence on foreigners, as well as strategic investments into productivity enhancing measures.

  • Singapore is likely to experience modest real GDP growth through 2017, and we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to come in at 1.7% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017. Poor external demand and structural domestic trends will keep headline GDP growth subdued, although we believe that a marked deterioration in the labour market remains unlikely owing to the city-state's solid economic foundation.

Key Forecast Changes

  • We have revised our end-2016 forecast for the Singapore dollar upwards to SGD1.3700/USD (versus SGD1.4000/USD previously) as a result of a stronger than expected performance so far this year, as well as a lower likelihood of interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve in the near future. For 2017, we expect the currency to appreciate modestly to SGD1.3400/USD by year-end.

Key Risks

  • Despite Singapore's sound fundamentals, the confluence of weak external demand (led by a rapidly slowing Chinese economy) and domestic economic restructuring could give rise to a technical recession over the coming quarters.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Singapore 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 292.9 278.2 292.0 308.2
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.3 2.0 1.7 2.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.1 -0.6 0.0 2.0
Exchange rate SGD/USD, eop 1.33 1.42 1.37 1.34
Budget balance, % of GDP 1.3 -1.2 1.0 1.2
Current account balance, % of GDP 20.1 20.7 17.6 15.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Slower GDP Growth The New Norm, But Acute Downturn Unlikely
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
2016 Budget Deepens Economic Transformation Programme
10
TABLE: KEY NEAR-TERM MEASURES
11
TABLE: KEY POINTS: INDUSTRY TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMME
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: KEY GOVERNMENT REVENUE & EXPENDITURE ITEMS
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Tough Trade Outlook To Persist
13
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: KEY EXPORTS
15
TABLE: KEY IMPORTS
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
16
Monetary Policy
16
MAS Easing Reflects Competitiveness Concerns
16
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Currency Forecast
19
SGD: Near-Term Weakness To Give Way To Long-Term Appreciation
19
TABLE : BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Singaporean Economy To 2025
21
Solid Growth Trajectory To 2025
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Political Risk Index
25
Domestic Politics
26
By-Election Victory Further Evidence Of PAP Resurgence
26
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
26
Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
27
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk Index
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
32
Economic Openness
33
TABLE : TOP 5 TRADE PARTNERS - PRODUCT IMPORTS (2010- 2014), USDMN
33
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
34
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONE AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
35
Availability Of Labour
41
TABLE: ASIA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR
42
TABLE: SINGAPORE'S TOP TEN SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
43
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ('000), 2009-2013
44
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
47
Global Macro Outlook
47
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
47
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
47
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
48
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
49
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
51

Assess your risk exposure in Singapore with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Singapore with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report