BMI View: Non-communicable disease will continue to dominate Singapore's epidemiological profile, creating strong commercial opportunities for medicines addressing these illnesses. Companies seeking to benefit from these revenue earning prospects will have to compete with the population's ongoing use of alternative treatments as a supplement to conventional medicine.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals : SGD1.10bn (USD798mn) in 2015 to SGD1.15bn (USD790mn) by 2016; +5.1% in local currency terms and -0.9% in USD terms.
Healthcare: SGD19.67bn (USD14.31bn) in 2015 to SGD21.15bn (USD14.50bn) by 2016; +7.5% in local currency terms and 1.3% in USD terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.822||0.798||0.790||0.822||0.890||0.962||1.045|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.28||0.28||0.29||0.28||0.28||0.28||0.28|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||5.7||5.6||5.5||5.3||5.2||5.1||5.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||14.418||14.311||14.501||15.427||17.115||18.951||21.093|
Singapore is ranked seventh out of 19 other Asia Pacific markets (scoring 59.7 out of a maximum 100) on BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q216. The country's above average score on country rewards (scoring 17.1 out of 21.0) with the highest score for risk (27.8 out of 35) in the region is weighed down by the limited industry rewards (14.8 out of 44.0) due to the country's small population.
In February 2016, the masterplan to develop the Singapore General Hospital campus over the next 20 years was unveiled. The new site intends to bring together different aspects of care for patients and integrate technology into the delivery of healthcare.
In January 2016, it was disclosed that SGD19bn (USD13bn) will be channelled towards scientific and technological research under the Research, Innovation and Enterprise 2020 plan. Funds will be channelled into key areas that will provide a competitive edge or meet national needs. Disease groups that have been identified include cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes.
In December 2015, local news sources disclosed that patients may soon be able to order repeat prescription medicines online from retail pharmacies and have them delivered to their home.
BMI Economic View
Singapore's economy is treading water amidst a domestic economic restructuring and poor external demand conditions, and we see little prospect for a significant pick-up over the coming quarters. As such, we have downgraded our real GDP forecasts for 2015 and 2016 to 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2.5% and 3.2% previously. Meanwhile, the MAS has confirmed our expectations for a weaker Singapore dollar policy, suggesting further weakness against the US dollar heading into 2016.
BMI Political View
The People's Action Party's landslide victory in September's general election will allow the party to stay the course with its broad policy framework adopted in 2011. This will entail incremental augmentations of Singapore's social safety net, as well as a gradual restructuring of the economy away from dependence on foreign labour.
The Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Singapore pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Singapore, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.