BMI View: Despite the small size of the Singaporean pharmaceutical market, the country's consistent drive into R&D, strong government commitment towards healthcare provision and its ageing population continue to present significant commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical firms. Furthermore, per capita pharmaceutical spending is high relative to the region which will be a strong plus for innovative drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals : SGD1.04bn (USD822mn) in 2014 to SGD1.1bn (USD788mn) by 2015; +5.4% in local currency terms and -4.1% in USD terms. Forecast maintained from previous quarter.
Healthcare: SGD18.27bn (USD14.42bn) in 2014 to SGD19.67bn (USD14.13bn) by 2015; +7.7% in local currency terms and -2.0% in USD terms. Forecast maintained from previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.790||0.822||0.788||0.781||0.820||0.882||0.949|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.26||0.28||0.29||0.28||0.28||0.27||0.27|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||5.8||5.7||5.6||5.4||5.3||5.2||5.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.571||14.417||14.126||14.326||15.398||16.963||18.711|
Singapore is ranked seventh out of 19 other Asia Pacific markets (scoring 59.7 out of a maximum 100) on BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q116. This score is largely driven by its increasingly ageing population, high levels of patent protection, a coherent political landscape as well as its position as a city-state which as no rural population. Limited industry rewards, namely its small population and low birth rate, weigh down the country's otherwise solid score.
In September 2015, Novartis disclosed that the firm will be producing Entresto (sacubitril and valsartan) from their Singapore-based manufacturing plant.
In October 2015, a review of nursing homes in Singapore noted that three in five patients there were taking the wrong medication or in the wrong dosage. The study also noted that some patients were taking as many as 20 different types of medicines as they had more than one chronic disease.
Singapore's national health insurance scheme, MediShield Life, came into effect from November 1 2015. This scheme covers all Singaporeans and permanent residents as well as 23,000 people with serious pre-existing conditions that are currently uninsured. The maximum claim limit per policy per year is now capped at SGD100,000 (USD71,313).
BMI Economic View
The comfortable return to power for Singapore's ruling PAP will guarantee another term of prudent fiscal policy-making, and we expect to see balanced budgets erring on the side of surplus following FY2015/16's election year deficit. Key spending measures will continue to focus on support for beleaguered SMEs and low-income citizens, while additional revenue streams will eventually be added to support a broader social safety net.
BMI Political View
The scale of the PAP's victory in Singapore's September 11 parliamentary elections was somewhat astounding, with the party locking up an extremely impressive 69.9% of the overall popular vote. While the result goes a long way towards restoring the incumbent's dominant position in Singapore's government, we do not expect the ruling party to take its mandate for granted, and instead see the PAP maintaining its more consultative approach to policy-making.
The Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Singapore pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Singapore, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.