BMI View: Prospects for Singapore's healthcare sector will be robust. Supported by the government's consistent investments into the sector, the country has developed a strong research foundation which will in turn serve to augment Singapore's competitive edge in clinical trials and medical tourism. A strong healthcare sector will be advantageous for other sectors such as the logistics industry, and will support Singapore's long-term trade prospects as traditional drivers such as electronics face headwinds.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals : SGD1.10bn (USD800mn) in 2015 to SGD1.16bn (USD820mn) by 2016; +5.4% in local currency terms and 2.9% in USD terms.
Healthcare: SGD21.30bn (USD15.49bn) in 2015 to SGD23.53bn (USD16.71bn) by 2016; +10.5% in local currency terms and 7.8% in USD terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.820||0.800||0.820||0.880||0.950||1.030||1.110|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.28||0.29||0.29||0.29||0.29||0.29||0.29|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||5.4||5.2||4.9||4.7||4.5||4.4||4.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||15.150||15.490||16.710||18.690||21.020||23.580||26.180|
Singapore is ranked seventh out of 19 other Asia Pacific markets (scoring 59.7 out of a maximum 100) on BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q316. The country's above average score on country rewards (scoring 17.1 out of 21.0) with the highest score for risk (27.8 out of 35) in the region is weighed down by the limited industry rewards (14.8 out of 44.0) due to the country's small population.
In May 2016, the reopened Marine Parade will offer a 24 hours, seven days a week prescription pick-up service. At Bedok, a new care delivery model will be introduced where a regular team of doctors and nurses ensure the coordination and continuity of care for patients.
That same month, National University Hospital will be undertaking a study involving 800 people with normal blood sugar levels and 1,500 pre-diabetics. This is funded both by the Ministry of Health and Janssen Pharmaceuticals and seeks to identify lifestyle as well as biomarkers that makes a patient more likely to develop diabetes.
A separate study published in May 2016 noted that the aggregate, direct and indirect cost of dementia in Singapore amounted to SGD1.4bn annually. In 2013, the country shouldered a cost of SGD532mn to care for people with brain disease marked by memory disorders, personality changes and impaired reasoning.
BMI Economic View
Singapore's considerable exposure to the Chinese economy will weigh on its growth prospects over the next two years, and we have downgraded the city-state's real GDP growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Singapore dollar will remain under pressure as the Chinese yuan depreciates and the MAS looks to ease its currency policy in April, taking the unit to SGD1.5000/USD by the end of 2016.
BMI Political View
The ruling PAP's trouncing of the opposition in September 2015's parliamentary elections was not a fluke, and instead reflected the confluence of effective policymaking, political maneuvering, and advantageous timing. Singapore effectively remains a one-party state, but the PAP's significant policy shift between 2011 and 2015 proves that the feedback mechanism between the party and the electorate is nevertheless highly efficient.
The Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Singapore pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Singapore, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.