BMI View: The delivery of healthcare in Singapore will continue to change as the country looks to deepen the integration of technology with its medical sector. This will see a shift in the flow of patients seeking medical services, their interaction with physicians and potentially the use of pharmaceuticals as mobile applications play a greater role. Consequently, drugmakers will have to adapt their marketing strategies to account for these shifts in the patient journey to capture the commercial opportunities in the Singapore market.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals : SGD1.1bn (USD798mn) in 2015 to SGD1.2bn (USD844mn) by 2016; +5.4% in local currency terms and 5.7% in USD terms. US dollar values upgraded in line with shifts in currency.
Healthcare: SGD21.3bn (USD15.5bn) in 2015 to SGD23.5bn (USD17.2bn) by 2016; +10.5% in local currency terms and 10.8% in USD terms. US dollar values upgraded in line with currency changes.
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.820||0.800||0.840||0.900||0.970||1.050||1.130|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.28||0.29||0.29||0.29||0.29||0.29||0.29|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||5.4||5.2||4.9||4.7||4.5||4.4||4.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||15.150||15.490||17.180||19.100||21.500||24.130||26.800|
Singapore is ranked seventh out of 19 other Asia Pacific markets (scoring 60.9 out of a maximum 100) on BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q416. The country's above average score on country rewards (scoring 17.1 out of 21.0) with the highest score for risk (27.8 out of 35) in the region is weighed down by the limited industry rewards (16.0 out of 44.0) due to the country's small population.
In May 2016, Mundipharma announced that it will be establishing a new SGD100mn (USD74mn) global research and development (R&D) centre in the country. Slated to begin operations in January 2018, the facility will be the world's first betadine consumer health hub that combines R&D, manufacturing and distribution into one. A key focus of the hub would be on finding new ways to combat infectious diseases.
That same month, a study by local researchers noted that dementia costs Singapore SGd1.4bn (USD1.0bn) every year. At an individual patient level, for every person with dementia, he, his family and society paid SGD10,245 (USD7,850) more in health and social costs in 2013 than those without the condition. The study projects the number of dementia patients to grow from 40,000 in 2015 to 53,000 by 2020 and 187,000 by 2050.
In June 2016, local news sources reported that Takeda Pharmaceutical is conducting a trial of its dengue vaccine in Singapore. Thus far, 300 of the targeted 400 people have signed up for the Phase II trial. The trials are being done at the Singapore General Hospital and Changi General Hospital.
BMI Economic View
Singapore's FY2016/17 budget is largely focused on providing near-term support for SMEs, as well as deepening the government's efforts to restructure the economy away from cheap labour and towards high value-added industries and automation. Versus an estimated deficit of SGD4.9bn in FY2015/16 (1.2% of GDP), we forecast a surplus equivalent to 1.0% of GDP for FY2016/17.
BMI Political View
The PAP's victory in the Bukit Batok by-election on May 7 provides further evidence of the ruling party's strong momentum amongst the electorate. Strong voter support dating back to 2015's general elections will encourage a continuation of the PAP's centre-left policy agenda first adopted in 2011, including an incrementally more generous social safety net and a restructuring of the labour force in favour of citizens and permanent residents.
The Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Singapore Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Singapore pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Singapore, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Singaporean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Singapore.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.