BMI View: As units three and four of the Mochovce nuclear power plant come online, we forecast nuclear capacity to increase 17.5% in 2017 and 15.2% in 2018. The increased power capacity from these plants will contribute to an increase of total power generation capacity, which we forecast will grow by 7.4% in 2017 and 9.0% in 2018, for a total of 28.4TWh and 30.9TWh respectively. This will consolidate the dominance of nuclear power in the power mix. After those projects come fully online, growth is likely to plateau for the remainder of our forecast period, given that other major projects have either been mothballed or marred by slow approval processes .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data|
|Generation, Total, TWh||26.620||26.410||28.370||30.910||30.920||31.060||31.040|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||25.6||25.8||26.1||26.4||26.7||27.0||27.2|
|Capacity, Net, MW||8,223.3||8,194.6||8,701.0||9,206.3||9,207.7||9,210.0||9,216.5|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In late June 2016, Slovenske elektrarne (SE) announced that it had completed construction at the third unit of Mochovce, enabling the testing phase to get underway, a process which initially involves primary circuit testing, ahead of so-called cold and hot hydrostatic tests of the reactor, including leak tightness checks. Meanwhile, SE further sought to reassure the market that the fourth unit was around 75% complete. Building in the timeline for testing, SE therefore confirmed that Unit 3 would be phased in during 2017, while Unit 4 would come online through the course of 2018.
Enel announced that it had successfully closed the first phase of its sale of SE - thereby offloading a 33% stake - in late July 2016. The sale of Enel's stake to EPH, a private company with Czech and Slovak energy assets, had been announced in December 2015, with two phases to the sale envisaged, on the basis of a preliminary price of EUR750mn. The first phase involved the disbursement of EUR150mn to Enel, with the fee for the remaining 33% contingent upon the health of SE after the completion of the two new nuclear reactors at Mochovce.
In April 2016, Slovakia's Ministry of Environment announced that it had approved, in principle, the plan for a new reactor at Bohunice. The consortium responsible for the project, Jadrova energeticka spolocnost Slovenska, announced that about half of the initial preparation work for the enterprise had been completed and that it was seeking a supplier of nuclear technology.
SE's work on the Mochovce Nuclear Power Plant is on course to result in reactor 3 coming onstream in Q416 or Q117 while reactor 4 should be complete a year later. Total power generation in Slovakia is therefore expected to increase substantially over the next couple of years, to 32.1TWh in 2018 (a rise of 29% over two years).
Consumption should accelerate from 2016 onwards, though annual growth will remain below 2%, which, combined with the improving generating capacity, will ameliorate the overall shortfall.
Italian power utility Enel in December 2018 concluded an agreement with Czech energy player EPH to sell SE, in a two-phase deal likely to total EUR750mn. However, the complex nature of the arrangement - which will not be completed until both new Mochovce reactors are online - could impair the strategic direction of SE over the medium term, especially given the added lack of full clarity over whether the state or EPH will end up as the majority shareholder.
The Slovakia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Slovakia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Slovakia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Slovakia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Slovakia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).