Slovenia Autos Report

Published 06 January 2015

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Slovenia Autos Report

The Slovenian auto production sector looks set for strong recovery in 2015, following five consecutive years of decline. H114 figures also showed a decline, of 9.8% to 48,826 units, according to figures from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA). Passenger cars (48,778 units) accounted for virtually all Slovenian production over the January-June 2014 period. Given the poor start to the year, this means that we are still targeting a slight decline (of 1.8%) for 2014.

However, over H214, the outlook for domestic auto production has improved significantly. In November, we revised up our 2015 production growth forecast from 8%, to 28%. This followed the news that Slovenia's main automotive producer, Revoz, was starting a third shift at its Novo Mesto plant, starting December 2014.

Revoz - which is wholly owned by French manufacturer Renault - announced the added shift in the wake of the launch of the new Renault Twingo and Smart ForFour models. Both models are made by the company at Novo Mesto using a common vehicle platform jointly developed by Renault and Daimler AG, which owns the Smart brand.

Since Revoz remains the sole mass autos producer in the country, the added shift has prompted us to revise up our 2015 production forecast from 8% growth to 28%. We are doing so based on the company's aims of increasing production by up to one-third to produce 800 cars per day, compared to the current capacity of 600. The company is also planning on hiring an additional 450 people to complement its existing workforce of 2,400 ( see Renault company profile for more information).

Beyond 2015, we are targeting further growth, of 26.5%, which should take total Slovenian auto production to around 147,000 units by 2018. However, this remains substantially below the 2009 peak of 212,749 units and BMI does not see production returning to this high level at any time over our forecast period to 2018. Downside and upside risks to our current forecast...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Slovakia Autos Industry SWOT
6
Slovakia Political SWOT
7
Slovakia Economic SWOT
7
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT
8
Global Overview
9
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
9
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
9
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
9
Regional Overview
14
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
21
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
25
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
26
Industry Forecast Scenario
28
Sales
28
Table: Slovakia Auto Sales, 2010-2017
28
Production
29
Table: Slovakia Auto Production, 2010-2017
29
Trade
30
Table: Slovakia Auto Trade, 2010-2017
30
Passenger Cars
31
Table: Slovakia Passenger Cars, 2010-2017
31
Industry News
32
Commercial Vehicles
33
Table: Slovakia Commercial Vehicles, 2010-2017
33
Suppliers
34
Company Monitor
35
Company Profiles
37
Volkswagen (VW)
37
PSA Peugeot Citro-n
38
Kia Motors
39
Demographic Outlook
40
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
41
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
42
Table: Slovakia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
43
Table: Slovakia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
43
BMI Methodology
44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
44
Sources
45

The Slovenia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Slovenia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Slovenia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Slovenian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc