BMI View: As a result of Slovenia's limited external and internal security threats, as well as its weak economy, the country's defence sector is small on a regional comparison. Although Prime Minister Miro Cerar has announced that his government is committed to raising military spending - and despite an improvement in economic conditions from 2016 onwards - we do not expect the defence budget to grow significantly over our forecast period to 2019, as the country will remain relatively secure , and with Ljubl ja na continuing to direct the majority of funding towards socio-economic development. Meanwhile, t he Slovenian defence sector will remain focused on production of parts and components rather than complete products, as local manufacturers lack advanced technological capabilities and investment into defence R&D is limited.
In 2016, we forecast the Slovenian defence budget to reach a value of USD545mn, a 4.4% increase on 2015 levels. This figure continues to make up a comparatively small proportion of GDP. At just 1.3%, in both 2015 and 2016, Slovenia's defence expenditure remains well below the NATO requirement of 2%, illustrating the low level of threat from domestic unrest, terrorism, crime and interstate conflict - as well as still-weak macroeconomic conditions. Prime Minister Miro Cerar has previously stated that his government is committed to raising the Slovenian military budget; however, we do not expect any large spending increases over our forecast period to 2019, as Ljubljana continues to focus its budget on socio-economic development. Moreover, out of the defence budget's already small share of overall spending, the vast majority will be directed towards personnel and maintenance expenses, rather than new procurement and R&D.
We expect Slovenia's security environment to remain relatively stable over the next five years, as domestic threats - associated with perceived corruption, a lack of public confidence in the government, and...
The Slovenia Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Slovenia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Slovenian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Slovenian defence and security market.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.