Slovenia Defence & Security Report

Published 15 January 2015

  • 59 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Free related articles sent monthly
 
$1,295.00
Slovenia Defence & Security Report

BMI View: Defence expenditure as a proportion of GDP rose in the last decade, from 1.15% of GDP in 2000 to 1.6% of GDP in 2010. However, it has declined since, and we estimate defence of 1.2% in 2014, although we do see a rise to 1.3% in 2015. This is well below the NATO European average of 2.2% and below the 2% target that NATO specifies for its members.

Borut Pahor, Slovenia's president, insisted in October 2014 that the country would make no further cuts to military expenditure in the coming years. The government has made pledges to this end to stabilise defence spending levels. Slovenia needs to address both defence spending levels and military modernisation.

We expect Slovenia to spend around USD576mn on defence in 2015, a fall from our estimate of USD589mn in 2014. By 2019 we expect the Slovenian defence budget to be worth USD672mn.

We have given Slovenia an overall security risk index score of 96 out of 100 for 2015. On average, Slovenia has had a security risk rating of 92 for November 2007 up to and including 2015. We see Slovenia as having a very low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict, and also only a low risk of terrorist attack or major criminal activity.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Defence
8
Security
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Defence Budget
14
Table: Defence Expenditure (Slovenia 2012-2019)
14
Armed Forces
15
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Slovenia 2005-2011)
16
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) (Slovenia 2012-2019)
16
Defence Production
16
Table: Defence Trade Balance (USDmn) (Slovenia 2012-2019)
17
Imports
17
Table: Defence Imports (USDmn) (Slovenia 2012-2019)
18
Exports
18
Table: Defence Exports (USDmn) (Slovenia 2012-2019)
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
20
Economic Analysis
20
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
21
Risks To Outlook
23
Table: Economic Activity (Slovenia 2009-2018)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Europe Security Risk Index
24
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Index
24
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
25
Slovenia - Security Risk Index
26
Market Overview
28
Security Overview
28
Domestic Threats
28
Regional Threats
29
International Threats
31
Defence Market Overview
32
Armed Forces
32
Domestic Defence Industry
35
Imports
36
Exports
36
Company Profile
37
Fotona Defence
37
Skupina KKK Kamnik
38
Sistemska Tehnika
39
Regional Overview
40
Europe Security Overview
40
Global Industry Overview
50
Global Political Outlook
50
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sector-Specific Methodology
57
Sources
58
Security Risk Index Methodology
58
Table: Indicators And Weighting
59

The Slovenia Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Slovenia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Slovenian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Slovenian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
  • Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
  • Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive Landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc