BMI View: In 2016, Slovenia's freight sector will witness strong growth across the board as the improved economic outlook for the eurozone will stimulate demand for Slovenian exports and improved domestic consumption will drive a recovery in imports. Air and road freight will post th e strongest growth rates , at 7.2% and 5.6% respectively, as they will bene fit directly from rising import levels . Meanwhile, rail freight growth will remain cons trained by difficulties to find investors for infrastructure expansion, a trend which we believe will continue over the medium term.
We forecast the Slovenian economy to grow by 2.7% in 2016, up from 2.6% in 2015. Growth will come on the back of good external demand for Slovenia's exports, supported by rising domestic consumption. Over our forecast period, the expansion rate will slow down to a yearly average of 2.3%, a rate which we consider to be below potential as the long-standing issue of corporate leverage and poor health of the banking sector will continue to weigh on performance of the economy.
On the back of stronger than expected eurozone growth and the recovery in domestic consumption, we forecast Slovenia's imports and exports to grow by good 4.1% and 4.2% respectively over 2016. These trends are forecast to continue over the medium term, with Slovenia benefitting particularly from the improved growth outlook in the eurozone, which will drive increases in Slovenian trade volumes, as all of Slovenia's key trading partners (Germany, Italy, Austria, Croatia, France) are located in the region. Domestic consumption is forecast to follow an upward trend through to 2020, which will spur demand for imports, albeit imports will remain low from a historical perspective. Expansion projects at the Port of Koper provide major upside risks to our trade forecast.
Road freight will outpace rail freight, both in 2016 as well as over the medium term, as road freight will benefit the most from growing domestic consumption and the weak oil price environment. The government has major projects in the pipeline to expand both road as well as rail networks over the long term; and as a result, we believe road will maintain its dominant share in the country's freight mix of around 80% through to 2020. In terms of growth rates, on the back of a growing domestic pharmaceuticals industry and rising consumer-driven import levels, Slovenia's air freight industry will be the outperformer in this regard, albeit from a very low base, in 2016 - a trend which we believe will continue over the medium.
The Slovenian government has postponed the shortlisting of a public private partnership (PPP) model for the EUR1.4bn Koper-Divaca rail link upgrade project to September 2015, according to Minister of Infrastructure Peter Gaspersic. The move comes after the project failed to win approval for EU funds from the Connecting Europe Facility. The PPP model is expected to be selected by end 2015.
In September 2015, Slovenia signed an Economic Cooperation Agreement with the UAE to boost bilateral ties in several sectors, including aviation. The agreement increases the possibility of a significant involvement of UAE's carriers Etihad and Emirates in the Slovenian air freight industry.
A potential full-privatisation of Slovenian Railways seems to be off the table. In July 2015, the National Assembly approved the Public Assets Management Strategy prepared by the government, which divides 91 Slovenian firms into three categories: strategic interest, major investment, portfolio asset. The government will maintain majority control over the railways which is deemed to be of strategic interest.
The second privatisation attempt of Adria Airways, in which the government seeks to sell its majority stake, reportedly has generated significant interest from potential investors. A public call for the expression of interest for a 91.58% share in the airline was published in July 2015. The countrt is looking for a swift sale in order for Adria to avoid liquidity issues, which arise at the airline each winter as business slows.
Key BMI Forecasts
2016 air freight tonnage is forecast to increase 7.2% to 9,770 tonnes.
2016 rail freight tonnage is forecast to rise 4.1% to 19.42mn tonnes.
2016 road freight tonnage throughput is predicted to grow 5.6% to 75.2mn tonnes.
Total trade in 2016 is forecast to increase by 4.2% in real terms.
The Slovenia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Slovenia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.