B MI View: Slovenia's upstream sector remains close to inexistent, with little to no oil or gas production within our forecast period. While there is upside risk in the gas segment attributed to the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas project, t he initiative is facing continued regulatory and funding headwind . O verall volumes are likely to be relatively modest in the case of project realisation , with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Scource: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.9||0.9||0.9||0.9||1.0||1.0||1.0|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||49.8||50.3||51.1||51.5||51.9||52.5||52.9|
The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:
There is evidence of commercial gas deposits close to the Hungarian border that can be exploited for power generation purposes. However, given project delays we do not include it within our reserves or production forecast. The country's upstream reserves remain extremely limited at the moment.
Slovenian natural gas production will remain limited over the course of our forecast period given the lack of upstream development in the country. While the long-delayed Petisovci project poses upside risk to our forecast, we maintain our more modest outlook given continued financial and regulatory delays associated with the initiative.
As of early 2016, the company highlighted that the two appeals against the IPCC required for the gas processing plant were rejected as being without merit in November 2015. A further appeal was initiated by one of the two bodies whose objections were turned down. The appeal to the Slovenian courts is the final step in the determination of the IPPC permit, and an answer should be obtained by Q216.
In the case of a refusal of the IPCC award for the processing plant, the company is studying two alternative options to market early gas production: selling the raw gas to a neighbouring and newly re-opened methanol plant, or outsourcing gas processing to a third party. However, in all cases Ascent highlights that for the project to move into full field development, the new processing plant (and thereby the IPCC award) remains crucial as the other two options would only enable limited uptakes of gas. As such, while these two options are viable for early production, a new processing plant is required for the production of higher volumes of gas and for bringing field production to its full capacity.
The company is also facing financial problems. As a result of the permit delays, a decision was also made by the board to make further cuts in expenditure, reducing amounts spent on field development 'to a minimum' from October 2015.
With no active refinery, we believe Slovenia will not produce any refined products within our forecast period. While plans for a biodiesel plant are under discussion, the poor downstream environment in Europe will likely preclude plans from materialising.
Slovenia imports all its supplies of refined products, remaining heavily dependent on Russia for its refined fuels consumption. Strengthening demand will increase the country's deficit and maintain its status as a net importer through 2024.
We maintain Slovenia will remain dependent on gas imports for all of its domestic consumption given our expectation for delays to the Petisovci-Lovaszi project. Should the project materialise, we note downside risks to Slovenia's gas import requirements.
The Slovenia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Slovenia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Slovenia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian oil and gas industry.
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