Slovenia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Slovenia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

B MI View: Slovenia's upstream sector remains close to inexistent, with little to no oil or gas production within our forecast period. While there is upside risk in the gas segment attributed to the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas project, t he initiative is facing continued regulatory and funding headwind . O verall volumes are likely to be relatively modest in the case of project realisation , with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future.

Headline Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Scource: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 49.8 50.3 51.1 51.5 51.9 52.5 52.9
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 42.50 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00

The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:

  • There is evidence of commercial gas deposits close to the Hungarian border that can be exploited for power generation purposes. However, given project delays we do not include it within our reserves or production forecast. The country's upstream reserves remain extremely limited at the moment.

  • Slovenian natural gas production will remain limited over the course of our forecast period given the lack of upstream development in the country. While the long-delayed Petisovci project poses upside risk to our forecast, we maintain our more modest outlook given continued financial and regulatory delays associated with the initiative.

  • As of early 2016, the company highlighted that the two appeals against the IPCC required for the gas processing plant were rejected as being without merit in November 2015. A further appeal was initiated by one of the two bodies whose objections were turned down. The appeal to the Slovenian courts is the final step in the determination of the IPPC permit, and an answer should be obtained by Q216.

  • In the case of a refusal of the IPCC award for the processing plant, the company is studying two alternative options to market early gas production: selling the raw gas to a neighbouring and newly re-opened methanol plant, or outsourcing gas processing to a third party. However, in all cases Ascent highlights that for the project to move into full field development, the new processing plant (and thereby the IPCC award) remains crucial as the other two options would only enable limited uptakes of gas. As such, while these two options are viable for early production, a new processing plant is required for the production of higher volumes of gas and for bringing field production to its full capacity.

  • The company is also facing financial problems. As a result of the permit delays, a decision was also made by the board to make further cuts in expenditure, reducing amounts spent on field development 'to a minimum' from October 2015.

  • With no active refinery, we believe Slovenia will not produce any refined products within our forecast period. While plans for a biodiesel plant are under discussion, the poor downstream environment in Europe will likely preclude plans from materialising.

  • Slovenia imports all its supplies of refined products, remaining heavily dependent on Russia for its refined fuels consumption. Strengthening demand will increase the country's deficit and maintain its status as a net importer through 2024.

  • We maintain Slovenia will remain dependent on gas imports for all of its domestic consumption given our expectation for delays to the Petisovci-Lovaszi project. Should the project materialise, we note downside risks to Slovenia's gas import requirements.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Upstream Production - Gas
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Gas Production (Slovenia 2014-2019)
16
Table: Gas Production (Slovenia 2020-2025)
16
Refining
17
Refined Fuels Consumption
18
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Slovenia 2014-2019)
19
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Slovenia 2020-2025)
19
Gas Consumption
20
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovenia 2014-2019)
21
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovenia 2020-2025)
21
Trade - Oil
22
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovenia 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovenia 2020-2025)
24
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
25
Latest Updates
25
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovenia 2014-2019)
26
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovenia 2020-2025)
27
Industry Risk Reward Index
28
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
28
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe
28
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
29
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
30
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
32
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
34
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
35
Slovenia - Risk/Reward Index
37
Slovenia Upstream Score - Overview
37
Slovenia Upstream Score - Rewards
37
Slovenia Upstream Score - Risks
37
Slovenia Downstream Score - Overview
38
Market Overview
39
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
39
Oil Refineries
39
Table: Refineries In Slovenia
39
Service Stations
39
Oil Storage Facilities
39
Oil Terminals/Ports
39
Oil Pipelines
40
Gas Pipelines
40
Competitive Landscape
42
Competitive Landscape Summary
42
Table: Key Downstream Players
43
Company Profile
44
Geoplin
44
Nafta Lendava
48
Petrol
50
Other Summaries
55
Regional Overview
57
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
57
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
57
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
58
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
59
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
60
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
61
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
62
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
63
Glossary
65
Table: Glossary Of Terms
65
Methodology
67
Industry Forecast Methodology
67
Source
69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
69
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
71
Table: Weighting
72

The Slovenia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Slovenia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Slovenia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Slovenia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.