B MI View: Upstream development in Slovenia's small hydrocarbon sector will remain limited within a lower oil price environment. While t here are glimmers of hope in the oil and gas segment attributed to the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas project, t he initiative is facing continued regulatory and funding headwinds, thereby informing our modest upstream outlook. We acknowledge upside risk to our forecast in the event of its start-up, however, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Scource: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.9||0.9||0.9||1.0||1.0||1.0||1.0|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||51.7||49.8||50.3||51.1||51.5||51.9||52.5|
The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:
Upstream development will remain limited as lower commodity prices weigh on project plans over the course of our 10-year forecast period.
Slovenia will remain a net importer of both refined fuels and natural gas for the foreseeable future as limited domestic supplies are coupled with rising demand from an improving macroeconomic outlook.
A lack of supply infrastructure means a more dramatic rise in refined fuels demand is unlikely. 2014 consumption is estimated to have dropped by 1% as the economy remained stagnant. However, consumption will pick up modestly beginning in 2015, reaching an estimated 52,600b/d by 2024, met entirely by imports.
Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petisovci tight gas project. While first production was initially expected by end-2014, the project has suffered from continued delays which we expect will continue for the foreseeable future.
Delays to the project are attributed to the lack of pre-existing Slovenian regulatory infrastructure which has delayed many of the permit requests being processed for the facility. Additional slowdowns are ascribed to new EU tendering obligations the country adopted in 2013.
More recently the decision by the state-owned electricity company to construct a new high voltage power line in the vicinity of the existing gas processing plant has resulted in additional months of delays.