Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Krka's exposure to Eastern European markets will continue to act as a drag on revenue growth. However, strong sales growth in Western Europe will mitigate the impact of revenue declines for the short term. We expect a continued focus on cost containment by European healthcare payers to moderate Krka's growth outlook over the longer term, unless the company looks to geographically diversify its exposure.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR671mn (USD745mn) in 2015 to EUR645mn (USD690mn) in 2016; -3.9% in local currency terms and -7.3% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised downwards compared to previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR3.22bn (USD3.58bn) in 2015 to EUR3.25bn (USD3.48bn) in 2016; 0.9% in local currency terms and -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised slightly downwards compared to previous quarter .

BMI Risk/Reward Index

Slovenia scores 56.0 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q216, up to 9th place from 11th place in the previous quarter. Slovenia scores above the average for the region, which is 52.6.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Krka has reported its total sales for 9M15 of EUR863.3mn (USD962.7mn), ended September 30 2015, were flat compared to 9M14. The firm commented that sales increased by 6% in terms of quantity of products sold, but the smaller increase in revenues was the result of declining prices of pharmaceuticals and depreciation of certain key currencies. Despite the lacklustre sales performance, Krka's profit for the period rose by 4.7%, from EUR127.4mn for 9M14 to EUR133.3mn (USD148.7mn).

  • In December, Swiss drugmaker Novartis' Slovenian subsidiary Lek stated that high labour costs in Slovenia are reducing the competitiveness of the business within the international company. 'We urgently need a serious tax reform that will reduce labour costs in a way that will stimulate the employment of top experts,' Lek said (Reuters). In 2013, the government increased personal income tax on annual net wages of above EUR71,000 (USD76,740) to 50% from 41%.

  • In November, Krka's Notol 2 solid dosage forms production plant has been opened at the firm's main location in Slovenia. The investment in the plant is worth EUR200m (USD215.7mn) and provides Krka with new capacities that will enable it to control the entire production process from development to production of raw materials and finished products.

BMI Economic View

Falling oil prices will help to increase Slovenia's already large current account surplus. Although the surplus in part reflects the weak state of domestic demand, it will help to reduce the large negative net international position accrued across the last decade.

BMI Political View

We have downgraded Slovenia's short-term political risk score as the regional profile has deteriorated slightly. The European migrant crisis will remain at the forefront of the political agenda for the foreseeable future, although the absence of popular support for eurosceptic or nationalist parties suggests that the country's political environment is at a lower risk of extremism compared to other countries.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.896 0.745 0.690 0.718 0.760 0.814 0.842
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.81 1.77 1.65 1.61 1.56 1.52 1.51
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 21.0 20.8 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.4
Health spending, USDbn 4.272 3.578 3.480 3.642 3.903 4.201 4.350
BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
8
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2014-2020)
31
Industry Risk/Reward Index
32
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
32
Slovenia Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Regulatory Review
40
Intellectual Property Issues
41
Pricing Regime
41
Reimbursement Regime
43
Market Overview
45
Healthcare Sector
46
Table: Healthcare Resources (Slovenia 2010-2015)
50
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Slovenia 2010-2015)
50
Table: Healthcare Activity (Slovenia 2010-2015)
51
Research & Development
51
Clinical Trials
51
Epidemiology
52
Competitive Landscape
55
Research-Based Industry
55
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
55
Generic Drugmakers
56
Company Profile
59
Krka
59
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
64
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Slovenia 1990-2025)
69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Slovenia 1990-2025)
69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Slovenia 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group (Slovenia 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Slovenia 1990-2025)
71
Glossary
73
Methodology
75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Notes On Methodology
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Index Overview
78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
78
Indicator Weightings
79

The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Slovenia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.