Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 04 August 2015

  • 97 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Slovenia, similar to most Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, currently has limited capabilities in managing its rare disease population and we expect that EU authorities will push the country into accelerating its implementation of the necessary infrastructure to manage this patient subgroup. While Slovenia has adopted a national strategy and has a more progressive attitude towards orphan drug reimbursement than many of its CEE peers, it cur r ently lacks crucial elements needed to manage these populations. It i s an area where Slovenia's healthcare system will need to expand coverage to deliver better patient outcomes.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR675mn (USD896mn) in 2014 to EUR671mn (USD738mn) in 2015; -0.6% in local currency terms and -17.6% in US dollar terms. Forecasts unchanged compared to previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR3.22bn (USD4.27bn) in 2014 to EUR3.23bn (USD3.55bn) in 2015; 0.4% in local currency terms and -16.8% in US dollar terms. Forecasts unchanged compared to previous quarter.

BMI Risk/Reward Index

Slovenia scores 50.4 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q415 - down from 51.6 in the previous quarter. This places the country 10th in our index of 20 countries and above the average for the region, which is 49.3.

Key Trends & Developments

  • Krka's revenues in Q115 fell by 10% compared to Q114, coming to only EUR289mn (USD330mn). Nevertheless, Krka's net profits rose by 30% y-o-y to EUR55.1mn (USD62.7mn), primarily due to net foreign exchange gains in Q115, driven by the appreciation of the Russian rouble against the euro in the first three months of the year. Discounting this net financial gain, Krka's underlying financial performance from pharmaceutical sales deteriorated significantly in Q115. Operating profits fell by 32% y-o-y to EUR43mn (USD49mn). Krka's first quarter revenues for 2015 were primarily impacted by the company's exposure to Ukraine and...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
27
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
28
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2019)
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2013-2019)
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2013-2019)
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Real GDP By Expenditure
36
Risks To Outlook
40
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Slovenia 2012-2019)
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
41
Slovenia Risk/Reward Index
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Healthcare Sector
52
Table: Healthcare Resources (Slovenia 2009-2014)
56
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Slovenia 2009-2014)
56
Table: Healthcare Activity (Slovenia 2009-2014)
57
Research & Development
57
Clinical Trials
57
Regulatory Development
59
Intellectual Property Issues
60
Pricing Regime
60
Reimbursement Regime
62
Competitive Landscape
64
Research-Based Industry
64
Generic Drugmakers
64
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
65
Company Profile
66
Krka
66
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
71
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
75
Sanofi
77
Pfizer
79
Novartis
81
Merck & Co
83
Demographic Forecast
85
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Slovenia 1990-2025)
86
Table: Key Population Ratios (Slovenia 1990-2025)
86
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Slovenia 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group (Slovenia 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group % (Slovenia 1990-2025)
88
Glossary
90
Methodology
92
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
92
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
92
Notes On Methodology
93
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
94
Index Overview
95
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
95
Indicator Weightings
96

The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Slovenia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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