BMI View: Slovenia's healthcare system is relatively developed and effective, particularly when compared with other markets in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, Slovenia's disease profile is an attractive one for innovative drugmakers , as non-communicable diseases - cancer and cardiovascular diseases in particular - pose a great burden. On the other hand, the country's small population and market size may limit major investments from multinationals.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR671mn (USD745mn) in 2015 to EUR673mn (USD720mn) in 2016; 0.3% in local currency terms and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised upwards compared to previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR3.45bn (USD3.83bn) in 2015 to EUR3.56bn (USD3.80bn) in 2016; 3.1% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms. Forecasts increased slightly relative to previous quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, WHO, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.896||0.745||0.720||0.716||0.710||0.717||0.743|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.81||1.74||1.70||1.67||1.63||1.60||1.59|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.1||19.5||18.9||18.5||18.3||18.1||18.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.453||3.828||3.804||3.858||3.883||3.953||4.111|
BMI Risk/Reward Index
Slovenia's Risk/Rewards score is limited by a meagre Rewards score - a reflection of the small size of the market due to the country's small population, as well as its scant growth prospects. Slovenia scores 49.3 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q117, decreasing from 9th to 12th place compared to the previous quarter. Slovenia scores below the average for the region, which is 51.1.
In June 2016, Ales Delakorda of the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) voiced concerns that Slovenia is among countries with the highest risks of shortfall in public finances due to its ageing population. The country will require comprehensive changes to address this issue.
According to the European Commission's long-term estimates, Slovenia's expenditure on pensions, healthcare and long-term care will rise from 18.9% in 2013 to a quarter of the country's GDP by 2060, if left without intervention. (The Slovenia Times)
As announced in August 2016, the Slovenian Chamber of Pharmacies has estimated that despite the fragile economy, more than EUR50mn (USD53mn) was spent on over-the-counter drugs last year, extending growth seen since 2010. The biggest rise was recorded in weight-loss drugs, cough and cold medications as well as pain killers. The Chamber of Pharmacies has estimated that private expenditure on pharmaceuticals in Slovenia will continue to increase, primarily because of the ageing population and prevailing unhealthy lifestyle.
BMI Economic View
As the government coalition reaches the halfway point of its four-year term, its track record so far has been largely positive in terms of restoring political stability and institutional order following the successive government collapses in the 2011-2014 period. It has overseen an impressive reduction in the budget deficit, a return to solid growth and, more recently, a meaningful improvement in the labour market.
BMI Political View
The loss of public support poses a threat to the three-party governing coalition, one that is not a major concern now but will grow as we move closer to the 2018 elections and parties begin to court voters. With this in mind, we expect the risks to policymaking to gradually increase starting next year, making the coming quarters crucial in terms of enacting badly needed reforms in sensitive areas like pensions and the recovering banking sector.
The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Slovenia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.