BMI View: Slovenia's disease profile is attractive for innovative drugmakers as non-communicable diseases pose a great burden. Much like those of its Western European neighbours, Slovenia's health profile is dominated by cancer and cardiovascular diseases in particular. However, despite an attractive epidemiological profile, the country's small population and market size will somewhat act as a deterrent to any major investment from multinationals.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR671mn (USD745mn) in 2015 to EUR666mn (USD713mn) in 2016; -0.7% in local currency terms and -4.3% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised upwards compared to previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR3.44bn (USD3.82bn) in 2015 to EUR3.53bn (USD3.78bn) in 2016; 2.7% in local currency terms and -1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised upwards compared to previous quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.900||0.740||0.710||0.740||0.780||0.840||0.870|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.81||1.74||1.67||1.62||1.57||1.53||1.52|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.1||19.5||18.9||18.5||18.1||18.0||18.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.450||3.820||3.780||4.000||4.320||4.660||4.830|
BMI Risk/Reward Index
Slovenia scores 53.6 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q316, falling to 11th place from 9th place in the previous quarter. Slovenia scores above the average for the region, which is 52.2. Slovenia's Risk/Rewards score is limited by a meagre Rewards score, a reflection of the small size of the market due to the country's small population, as well as its scant growth prospects.
Slovenia's mortality rate from cancer is still high in comparison with other developed countries, healthcare officials warned on World Cancer Day on February 4, reported Medlines. According to the national Cancer Registry, more than 14,000 people in the country were diagnosed with cancer last year, with more than 8,000 or 55% of those being men.
Furthermore, according to the OECD's Health at glance publication, Slovenia is second in terms of cancer mortality rate among the 34 countries in the organisation. Healthcare practitioners believe that this is primarily a consequence of the poor management of cancer in men.
In January, Novartis expanded its Slovenian Lek subsidiary by adding 100 jobs and investing about EUR10mm (USD10.8mm) in new facilities, bringing its total investment in the biosimilar facility to EUR64mn (USD69mn). Lek already developed and manufactured active ingredients for biosimilars at its Menges site, but the new investment will allow for the development of the final dosage form for biosimilars and ensure quality control.
BMI Economic View
Although deflationary pressure will prevail throughout the first half of 2016 due to low global oil prices, we remain relatively sanguine towards the medium-term inflation outlook.
BMI Political View
The migrant crisis continues to dominate the political agenda in Slovenia. The country has already taken the step to introduce restrictions on migrants by imposing border checks and limiting entry to the country only to applicants seeking asylum in Austria or Germany. Slovenia's stance has led to a deterioration of relations with other EU countries, most notably Greece, after Slovenia proposed that the frontier of the Schengen zone should be moved to Greece's northern border.
The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Slovenia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.