BMI View: Much like those of its Western European neighbours, Slovenia's health profile is dominated by non-communicable diseases, which pose a great burden and provide opportunities for innovative drugmakers. However, despite an attractive epidemiological profile, the country's small population and market size will somewhat act as a deterrent to any major investment from multinationals.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR671mn (USD745mn) in 2015 to EUR656mn (USD702mn) in 2016; -2.2% in local currency terms and -5.7% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised downwards compared to previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR3.44bn (USD3.82bn) in 2015 to EUR3.53bn (USD3.78bn) in 2016; 2.7% in local currency terms and -1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecasts unchanged compared to previous quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.900||0.740||0.700||0.700||0.700||0.700||0.730|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.81||1.74||1.65||1.60||1.57||1.53||1.52|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.1||19.5||18.6||18.2||18.2||18.1||18.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.450||3.820||3.780||3.820||3.830||3.880||4.020|
BMI Risk/Reward Index
Slovenia scores 54.8 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q416, rising from 11th to 9th place compared to the previous quarter. Slovenia scores above the average for the region at 52.4.
During an official visit in March 2016, Qatari Minister of Economy and Trade Ahmed bin Jassim Al Thani expressed his country's interest in investing in Slovenia, especially in tourism, healthcare and education. The total trade between the two countries was EUR26.7m (USD30.0mn) in 2015, imports from Qatar to Slovenia were worth EUR17m (USD19mn). This leaves plenty room for expansion, according to the Economy Ministry (The Slovenia Times).
In July 2016, Lek (Sandoz [Novartis]) has opened what it claims to be the first production facility in Slovenia for drug substances for innovative drug products. The facility is at Lek's Menges site. According to Lek, until now, only the production of generic drug substances and drug products has been carried out in Slovenia. The investment in the construction of the site amounted to EUR28mn (USD30.7mn) and is the largest individual Novartis investment in Slovenia to date.
In February 2016, the Health Ministry of Slovenia proposed to tighten restrictions on tobacco products in line with EU rules and to introduce new levies to finance smoking prevention. Within two years the ministry also seeks to introduce no-brand packaging for tobacco products.
BMI Economic View
Slovenia continues to enjoy a period of relative political calm, supported by an improving macroeconomic backdrop. Nonetheless, the government coalition will face key tests to stability in the coming quarters as attention begins to slowly shift towards the 2018 elections.
BMI Political View
While Slovenia is enjoying a window of relative stability in domestic politics, risks to policy-making are likely to increase from next year as the 2018 elections come into view. Managing the migration crisis and relations with powerful public sector unions are two key short-term challenges for the governing coalition.
The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Slovenia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.