Slovenia Telecommunications Report

Published 28 October 2014

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Slovenia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Slovenia's fairly small size and population has led to the market becoming saturated quickly, with minimal levels of growth throughout the sector. The continued dominant position of state-owned Telekom Slovenije has also stunted overall growth and investment in the market. With limited subscriber growth opportunities, we expect to see increased levels of M&A activity, as consolidation of smaller players by larger companies plays out over the next few years. For such a small market, there are too many active players, none of which can properly challenge Telekom Slovenije. This has led to bankruptcy procedures at T-2 as well as Tusmobil becoming an acquisition target Telemach and Telekom Austria. The p rivatisation of Telekom Slovenije expected to be sold by February 2014, and that would bring a new, private investor into the market, with upside benefits to growth as a result.

The country's relatively high income levels have led to it having the highest ARPU and postpaid subscription mix in the region, backed by growth in 3G services. The combination of high incomes and strong value-added service uptake means that the rollouts of 4G by the two largest mobile operators should be met with stronger demand than in neighbouring states in the region.

Key Data

  • The mobile market has continued to grow even as penetration reached 112.8% by the end of June 2014, with 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth to 2.311mn subscriptions. BMI forecasts growth will continue to slow in the medium term and total subscriptions will increase to 2.377mn by the end of 2018.

  • The broadband market has shifted towards higher speed technologies such as cable and fibre-to-the-home (FTTH). Fibre now represents 21% of the total fixed broadband market, 114,000 subscribers.  

  • By July 2014, Mobitel reported it had over 100,000 active LTE users on its network, with its coverage reaching over 60% of the population and 300 LTE base stations. The operator aims to expand this to a 75%...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
SWOT
12
Political
14
Economic
15
Business Environment
16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
17
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q115
21
Industry Forecast
23
Mobile
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2018)
23
ARPU
25
Wireline
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Slovenia 2011-2018)
26
Broadband
27
Market Overview
29
Mobile
29
Table: Slovenia's Mobile Market, Regional Comparisons, 2014
29
Table: Slovenia's Mobile Subscribers, Q214 (000')
33
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q213-214 ('000)
33
Table: Slovenia's Mobile Market Overview
42
Table: Mobitel
42
Table: Si
43
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
44
Wireline
49
Table: Telekom Slovenije Dominant Position
50
Table: Fixed Number Portability Transfers
52
Broadband
52
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Regulatory Development
61
Table: Slovenian Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
61
Table: Slovenian Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
62
Competitive Landscape
65
Table: Key Players In Slovenia's Telecoms Sector
65
Table: Key Data, 2007-2013 (USDmn, unless otherwise stated)
65
Company Profile
66
Telekom Slovenije
66
Si
73
Regional Overview
77
Demographic Forecast
83
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, 1990-2020 ('000)
84
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
85
Table: Slovenia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
86
Table: Slovenia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
86
Glossary
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Sources
91
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
91
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
93

The Slovenia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Slovenia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Slovenia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Slovenia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Slovenia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc