BMI View: The Slovenian market has undergone major consolidation measures in 2016 with Si.mobil acquiring Amis and Telemach acquiring Tus mobil. Furthermore, T-2, a fixed line operator remains in receivership and both operators are eyeing its prospective purchase. Furthermore, the sale of state-owned telecoms giant Telekom Slovenia remains incomplete as the government looks to find a buyer. We believe these consolidation measures will lead to heated competition and a quicker uptake of 3G and 4G LTE services. We have revised our 3G and 4G LTE uptake forecast in light of the new consolidation measures and are now forecasting a higher percentage of 3G and 4G enabled phones to penetrate the market quicker. The country's relatively high income levels have led to it having the highest ARPU and postpaid subscription mix in the region, backed by growth in 3G services. The combination of high incomes and strong value-added service uptake means that the rollouts of 4G by the two largest mobile operators should be met with stronger demand than in neighbouring states in the region.
|3G & 4G: Primary Drivers of Growth|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: APEK/BMI|
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The Slovenian telecommunications industry has undergone significant consolidation in 2015 with Austrian owned Si.mobil acquiring fixed line and mobile operator Amis. Furthering the consolidation is Telemach, a Slovenian fixed line operator, buying Tu s mobil in 2015. Telemach will be investing heavily into developing 4G LTE capabilities as it anticipates heated competition in the market.
The sale of state- owned giant, Telekom Slovenia has still not gone through with no buyer looking to purchase the majority share from the government in 2015. The regulator still hopes to find a buyer in 2016 and the introduction of a new, foreign operator will significantly alter the competitive dynamics of the market.
Primary growth will come from the quicker than anticipate uptake of 3G and 4G services as competitors will look to reduce their prepaid subscribers and look to add new post-paid subscribers by luring them with competitive data plans and advanced technologies.
H1 2015 saw the mobile market contract by 11,000 subscribers after having posted a modest increase of 64,000 in FY 2014.
The Slovenia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Slovenia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Slovenia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Slovenia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Slovenia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.