BMI View: We continue to maintain our mixed outlook for the South African agricultural ma rket as a whole in our latest Q1 2017 report update. We believe that corn and wheat - crucial grain sectors of the country - took severe losses due to the El Ni n o - related drought. Nevertheless, we expect them both to rebound out to 2020 , as the weather conditions improve. Furthermore, livestock production (poultry and pork) and sugar consumption will both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand , weather volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market. We view South Africa as a generally lucrative market with strong economic growth, rising incomes, a solid population base and growing discretionary spending powers coupled with rising per capita private final consumption levels. Our production and consumption forecasts are predicated upon higher food consumption and a growing national appetite for meats and confectionaries among other commodities. We do believe that the market will track upwards but caution that weather volatility and currency weakness remain persistent features, especially as South Africa must import a variety of foodstuffs to feed domestic demand.
|South Africa Agribusiness Market Value|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO|
Corn production will take another year of heavy losses in 2015/16 due to severe drought, declining by an additional 25.7% y-o-y to reach 7.9mn tonnes.
Sugar production will decline by 23.2% to reach 1.7mn tonnes in 2015/16, as El Nino and severe regional weather droughts hit output.
Poultry production will reach 1.34mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing a y-o-y increase of 1.5%.
Pork production will rise by 2.1% in 2015/16 to reach 245,000 tonnes, while consumption will see a rise to 270,000 tonnes.
The continuing effects of the drought on the South African agricultural sector are wreaking havoc on farmers and the farming infrastructure of the country. Corn, sugar and wheat yields are all expected to take severe hits. Corn will suffer the most, dropping by an additional 35.7% this year after taking a hit of over 28% in the previous year. Sugar declines will also be severe of over 23% this year after declining by over 10% in the previous year. The local wheat crop will also suffer two consecutive years of declines. We anticipate that the severity of the droughts and impact of the El Nino year will be lessened in the subsequent years, providing the grains and sugar industry a return to growth.
The South Africa Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.