South Africa Agribusiness Report

Published 05 May 2015

  • 103 pages
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$1,295.00
South Africa Agribusiness Report

BMI View: While we believe that agricultural production (in value terms) will increase on a year-on-year basis in the 2015/16 marketing year, we hold a subdued outlook for many industries within the country's agricultural sector. Grain production growth will be slow over the comi ng years due to low prices , and yields will be constrained by the weak rand and lower farm incomes. The sugar sector will also suffer due to much lower global prices relative to the last few years. The country's livestock sector will see greater growth over the coming years owing to lower grain prices and increasing demand from a more affluent population. We believe the country's main a gribusiness companies will reap the benefit s from lower global grain prices and therefore lower feed prices.

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: -7.6% to 2. 3 mn tonnes. Much lower global sugar prices, relative to the last few years, will lead to a decline in South African sugar output. We believe that production from Brazil will keep the global market well supplied.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2019: 15.9% to 2.0mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient, healthy and affordable source of nutrition.

  • Corn production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: -6.6% to 14.0mn tonnes. Growth will be constrained over the next few years as a result of slower yield growth.

  • Real GDP growth: 1.9% in 2015, up from 1.5% in 2014.

  • Consumer price inflation: 4.4% in 2015, down from an average of 6.1% in 2014.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD16.1bn in 2015/16.

Industry Developments

US-based beverage company PepsiCo has opened a new manufacturing unit in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa for its potato chips business under its Simba brand. The new unit will join...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Sugar Outlook
11
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
11
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
14
Rice Outlook
15
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (South Africa 2012-2018)
15
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
16
Livestock Outlook
18
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
19
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
19
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
20
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
23
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
23
Grain Outlook
25
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
26
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
26
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
26
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
28
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
29
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)
29
Commodities Price Analysis
31
Monthly Softs Strategy
31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Monthly Grains Strategy
41
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Upstream Analysis
51
Africa GM Outlook
51
Table: Farm Size By Region
54
Africa Machinery Outlook
57
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
57
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
61
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
62
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
63
Downstream Analysis
70
Food
70
Food Consumption
70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018)
71
Confectionery
71
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018)
72
Meat
73
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2013-2018)
73
Other Prepared Foods
73
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2011-2018)
74
Oils & Fats
74
Dairy
74
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018)
75
Drink
76
Alcoholic Drinks
76
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018)
77
Soft Drinks
78
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (South Africa 2013-2018)
79
Hot Drinks
80
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018)
81
Mass Grocery Retail
82
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018)
83
Regional Overview
84
Competitive Landscape
91
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
91
Demographic Forecast
92
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
93
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
94
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
95
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
95
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Sector-Specific Methodology
97

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc