South Africa Agribusiness Report

Published 28 July 2015

  • 101 pages
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$1,295.00
South Africa Agribusiness Report

BMI View: W e maintain a subdued outlook for many industries within South Africa's agricultural sector. P roduction will increase year-on-year in the 2015/16 season , but for s ugar, wheat, corn and barley this will merely represent a rebound after severe decline s in 2014/15 caused by drought. G rain production growth will be slow over the coming years due to low prices , while yields will be constrained due to the weak rand, weather volatility and lower farm incomes. The sugar sector will remain relatively stagnant with production growth rates below 1% annually. That said, t he livestock sector will s ee more positive trends in production growth owing to a multitude of factors , such as increasing demand and a higher population with more discretionary spending power. We believe that the country's main agribusiness companies could reap benefits if drought conditions do not deteriorate and cattle and poultry feed prices are not severely impacted.

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production contraction 2013/14 to 2018/19 : 0.4 % to 2. 3 mn tonnes . Much lower global sugar prices, relative to the last few years, will lead to a decline in South African sugar output. We believe that production from Brazil will keep the global market well supplied.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2019 : 7.9% to 1.9 mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient, healthy and affordable source of nutrition.

  • Corn production contraction 2013/14 to 2018/19 : 6.6 % to 1 4.0 mn tonnes. Growth will be constrained over the next few years as a result of slower yield growth and weather droughts.

  • Real GDP growth: 1.9% in 2015, up from 1.5% in 2014.

  • Consumer price inflation: 4.4% in 2015, down from an average of 6.1% in 2014.

Industry Developments

US-based beverage company PepsiCo has opened a new manufacturing...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Sugar Outlook
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
16
Rice Outlook
17
Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2013-2019)
17
Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
19
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
22
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
23
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
25
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
25
Grains Outlook
27
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
28
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
28
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
28
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
32
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
32
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014)
32
Featured Analysis
34
Land Reform: Largely Rhetoric For Now
34
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Softs Update
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
48
Monthly Grains Update
48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
56
Upstream Analysis
57
Africa GM Outlook
57
Table: Farm Size By Region
60
Africa Machinery Outlook
62
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
63
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
68
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
68
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
69
Downstream Analysis
74
Food
74
Food Consumption
74
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
75
Confectionery
75
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
75
Meat
76
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2012-2019)
77
Other Prepared Foods
77
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2012-2019)
78
Oils & Fats
78
Dairy
78
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
79
Drink
80
Alcoholic Drinks
80
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
81
Soft Drinks
82
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
83
Hot Drinks
84
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
85
Mass Grocery Retail
86
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
87
Regional Overview
88
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
88
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector
91
Competitive Landscape
95
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
95
Demographic Forecast
96
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
97
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
97
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
98
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
98
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
99
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Sector-Specific Methodology
102

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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