South Africa Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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South Africa Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We continue to hold a mixed outlook for the South African agricultural market as a whole. Both corn and wheat will be hit by severe drought and the effects of El Ni n o , but we do expect grains to rebound over the course of our forecast period . Furthermore, livestock production and sugar consumption will both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand , weather volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market. However, economic growth , increasing demand and a higher population with mo re discretionary spending power will be boosts for growth.

South Africa Agribusiness Market Value
2013-2020
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production will take another year of heavy losses in 2015/16 due to severe drought, declining by an additional 38.8% y-o-y to reach 6.5mn tonnes.

  • Sugar production will decline by 20.2% to reach 1.75mn tonnes in 2015/16, as El Nino and severe regional weather droughts hit output.

  • Poultry production will reach 1.3mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing a y-o-y increase of 1.2%.

  • Pork production will rise by 2.1% in 2015/16 to reach 245,000 tonnes, while consumption will see a rise to 306,000 tonnes.

Industry Outlook

The continuing effects of the drought on the South African agricultural sector are wreaking havoc on farmers and the farming infrastructure of the country. Corn, sugar and wheat yields are all expected to take severe hits. Corn will suffer the most, with o dropping by an additional 38.8% this year after taking a hit of over 28% in the previous year. Sugar declines will also be severe of over 20% this year after declining by over 10% in the previous year. The local wheat crop will also suffer two consecutive years of declines. We anticipate that the severity of the droughts and impact of the El Nino year will be lessened in the subsequent years, providing the grains and sugar industry a return to growth.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook
12
Table: South Africa - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
12
Table: Risks to Outlook
12
Table: Sugar Consumption & Production (South Africa 2012-2020)
14
Rice Outlook
15
Table: South Africa - Rice Consumption Outlook
15
Table: Risks to Outlook
15
Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2012-2020)
17
Grains Outlook
18
Table: South Africa - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
18
Table: Risks To Outlook
19
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2020)
20
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: South Africa - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
22
Table: Risks To Outlook
23
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (South Africa 2012-2020)
24
Commodities Price Analysis
25
Global Commodities Strategy
25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
25
Upstream Analysis
27
Africa GM Outlook
27
Table: Farm Size By Region
31
Africa Machinery Outlook
33
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
33
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
38
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
39
Downstream Analysis
46
Food
46
Food Consumption
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
47
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
48
Confectionery
48
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
49
Meat
49
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019)
50
Other Prepared Foods
50
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019)
51
Oils & Fats
51
Table: Oils and Fats Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019)
51
Dairy
52
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019)
53
Regional Overview
54
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
54
Competitive Landscape
60
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
60
Demographic Forecast
61
Demographic Outlook
61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
62
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
64
Methodology
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Sector-Specific Methodology
67

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.