South Africa Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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South Africa Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We continue to hold a mixed outlook for the South African agricultural market as a whole. Both corn and wheat will be hit by severe drought and the effects of El Ni n o , but we do expect grains to rebound over the course of our forecast period . Furthermore, livestock production and sugar consumption will both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand , weather volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market. However, economic growth , increasing demand and a higher population with mo re discretionary spending power will be boosts for growth.

South Africa Agribusiness Market Value
2013-2020
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production will take another year of heavy losses in 2015/16 due to severe drought, declining by an additional 25.9% y-o-y to reach 8.0mn tonnes.

  • Sugar production will decline by 20.2% to reach 1.75mn tonnes in 2015/16, as El Nino and severe regional weather droughts hit output.

  • Poultry production will reach 1.3mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing a y-o-y increase of 1.2%.

  • Pork production will rise by 2.1% in 2016 to reach 245,000 tonnes, while consumption will see a rise to 306,000 tonnes.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook Q1 2016
12
Table: South Africa Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
12
Table: Risks to Outlook
12
Table: South Africa Sugar Consumption & Production
14
Rice Outlook Q1 2016
15
Table: South Africa Rice Consumption Outlook
15
Table: Risks to Outlook
15
Table: South Africa Rice Consumption
17
Grains Outlook Q1 2016
18
Table: South Africa Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
18
Table: South Africa Wheat Production & Consumption Outlook
19
Table: Risks to Outlook
19
Table: South Africa Grain Production & Consumption Outlook
20
Livestock Outlook Q1 2016
21
Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption Outlook
21
Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption Outlook
22
Table: South Africa Beef and Veal Production & Consumption Outlook
22
Table: Risks To Outlook
23
Table: South Africa Livestock Production & Consumption (2013-2019)
24
Commodities Price Analysis
25
Global Commodities Strategy
25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
25
Featured Analysis
27
African Agriculture: Lower Growth Over Coming Years
27
Table: African Union CAADP Objectives To 2025
28
Table: Indonesia - Select Inward Cocoa Investment Projects
33
Table: Most Popular Brands Are Foreign - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In South Africa In 2014 (%)
36
Upstream Analysis
39
Africa GM Outlook
39
Table: Farm Size By Region
43
Downstream Analysis
45
Food
45
Food Consumption
45
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
46
Confectionery
46
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
46
Meat
47
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2012-2019)
48
Other Prepared Foods
48
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (South Africa 2012-2019)
49
Oils & Fats
49
Dairy
49
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
50
Regional Overview
51
Africa Machinery Outlook
51
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
51
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
56
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
57
Africa GM Outlook
62
Table: Farm Size By Region
66
Competitive Landscape
68
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
68
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
70
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
70
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sector-Specific Methodology
75

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.