South Africa Commercial Banking Report

Published 11 May 2015

  • 74 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
South Africa Commercial Banking Report
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits Other
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
March 2014, ZARbn 3,955.4 3,043.1 479.5 432.9 3,955.4 517.4 2,845.3 592.8
March 2015, ZARbn 4,371.0 3,308.6 578.6 483.8 4,371.0 578.0 3,090.7 702.2
% change y-o-y 10.5% 8.7% 20.7% 11.8% 10.5% 11.7% 8.6% 18.5%
March 2014, USDbn 375.6 288.9 45.5 41.1 375.6 49.1 270.2 56.3
March 2015, USDbn 360.3 272.7 47.7 39.9 360.3 47.6 254.8 57.9
% change y-o-y -4.1% -5.6% 4.8% -3.0% -4.1% -3.0% -5.7% 2.8%
Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, March 2015
Loan/deposit ratio Loan/asset ratio Loan/GDP ratio GDP Per Capita, USD Deposits per capita, USD
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
107.05% 75.69% 85.77% 6,338.8 4,786.2
Rising Falling Rising n.a. n.a.
Annual Growth Rate Projections 2014-2019 (%)
Assets Loans Deposits
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
Annual Growth Rate 9 9 9
CAGR 9 9 9
Ranking 30 29 32
Ranking Out Of 73 Countries Reviewed In 2015
Loan/deposit ratio Loan/asset ratio Loan/GDP ratio
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
17 4 21
Local currency asset growth Local currency loan growth Local currency deposit growth
29 30 27
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2012-2019
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
Total assets, ZARbn 3,648.2 3,836.2 4,180.1 4,556.3 4,966.3 5,413.3 5,900.5 6,431.5
Total assets, USDbn 430.5 365.6
BMI Industry View
7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, December 2014
7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2014-2019 (%)
7
Table: Ranking Out Of 73 Countries Reviewed In 2015
8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2012-2019
8
SWOT
9
Commercial Banking
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
18
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
19
Market Overview
20
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Outlook
20
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2013
20
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, 2015
21
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (USDbn)
22
Table: Comparison Of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2015
23
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019)
27
Competitive Landscape
28
Market Structure
28
Protagonists
28
Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector
28
Definition of The Commercial Banking Universe
28
List Of Banks
29
Table: Member Banks
29
Company Profile
30
Absa Bank (Barclays Africa Group)
30
Table: Stock Market Indicators
32
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
33
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
33
Table: Key Ratios (%)
33
African Bank
34
Table: Stock Market Indicators
36
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
37
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
37
Table: Key Ratios (%)
37
FirstRand
38
Table: Stock Market Indicators
40
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
41
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
41
Table: Key Ratios (%)
41
Investec
42
Table: Stock Market Indicators
44
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
44
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
44
Table: Key Ratios (%)
45
Nedbank Group
46
Table: Stock Market Indicators
48
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
48
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
49
Table: Key Ratios (%)
49
Standard Bank
50
Table: Stock Market Indicators
53
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
53
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
53
Table: Key Ratios (%)
54
Regional Overview
55
Africa Overview
55
Global Industry Overview
60
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
60
US and Eurozone Banking Outlook
60
Emerging Market Regional Outlooks
61
Demographic Forecast
65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
66
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
66
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
67
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
68
Methodology
70
Industry Forecast Methodology
70
Sector-Specific Methodology
71
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
72
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
74

The South Africa Commercial Banking Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the commercial banking sector in South Africa. It examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment. Leading banks are profiled, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

BMI's South Africa Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the commercial banking industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent commercial banking industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African commercial banking market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Key insights into the commercial banking market, covering industry trends, key players and the regulatory environment, plus snapshots of assets, liabilities, client loans and client deposits in local currency and USD.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the commercial banking sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Commercial Banking Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors and participants looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

  • Competitive Landscape Market Data: Analysis of market size, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key annual and quarterly data.
  • Company Database: A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading commercial banks, including assets and liabilities, client loans, client deposits, capital, bond holdings, loan-deposit ratio, tier 1 capital, return on assets, earnings per share and market capitalisation.

Company Profiles and SWOTs

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Commercial Banking reports draw on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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