South Africa Commercial Banking Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the commercial banking industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Commercial Banking Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews and Company Profiles.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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South Africa Commercial Banking Report
Product Price
$1,295.00
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits Other
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
June 2015, ZARbn 4,434.4 3,378.8 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.3
June 2016, ZARbn 4,840.6 3,632.2 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.8
% change y-o-y 9.2% 7.5% -14.9% 6.8% na 2.9% 8.7% -12.7%
June 2015, USDbn 364.4 277.7 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
June 2016, USDbn 328.7 246.6 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
% change y-o-y -9.8% -11.2% -14.6% 9.0% na -11.4% 8.7% -12.7%
Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, June 2016
Loan/deposit ratio Loan/asset ratio Loan/GDP ratio GDP Per Capita, USD Deposits per capita, USD
na = not available. Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
106.99% 75.04% 87.91% 15.5 207,561.1
Falling Rising Falling na na
Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%)
Assets Loans Deposits
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
Annual Growth Rate 9 9 342997
CAGR 9 9 342997
Ranking 30 30 31
Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016
Loan/deposit ratio Loan/asset ratio Loan/GDP ratio
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
#N/A #N/A 25
Local currency asset growth Local currency loan growth Local currency deposit growth
25 27 33
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020
2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = forecast. Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
Total assets, ZARbn 3,836.2 4,179.9 4,827.2 5,309.9 5,787.8 6,308.7 6,876.5 7,495.4
Total assets, USDbn 365.6 361.3 312.1 366.2 385.9 420.6 456.9 504.7
Client loans, ZARbn 2,932.4 3,177.3 3,530.1 3,847.9 4,201.9 4,580.0 4,992.2 5,441.5
Client loans, USDbn 279.5 274.6 228.2 265.4 280.1 305.3 331.7 366.4
BMI Industry View
7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, December 2015
7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%)
7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016
8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020
8
SWOT
9
Commercial Banking
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Industry Trend Analysis
14
Table: SOUTH AFRICA - BANKING SECTOR RISK SNAPSHOT
15
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
18
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
18
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
19
Market Overview
20
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Outlook
20
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014
20
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016
21
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (USDbn)
22
Table: Comparison Of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016
23
Economic Growth Outlook
24
Table: South Africa - Real GDP Growth, % change q-o-q, SAAR
25
Competitive Landscape
28
Market Structure
28
Protagonists
28
Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector
28
Definition of The Commercial Banking Universe
28
List Of Banks
29
Table: Member Banks
29
Company Profile
31
Absa Bank (Barclays Africa Group)
31
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
33
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
34
Table: Key Ratios (%)
34
African Bank
35
Table: Stock Market Indicators
37
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
37
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
37
Table: Key Ratios (%)
38
FirstRand
39
Table: Stock Market Indicators
41
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
42
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
42
Table: Key Ratios (%)
42
Investec
43
Table: Stock Market Indicators
45
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
45
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
45
Table: Key Ratios (%)
46
Nedbank Group
47
Table: Stock Market Indicators
49
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
49
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
49
Table: Key Ratios (%)
50
Standard Bank
51
Table: Stock Market Indicators
53
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
53
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
53
Table: Key Ratios (%)
54
Global Industry Overview
55
Industry Forecast
55
Regional Outlooks
56
Table: 50 Largest Banking Sectors By Assets - Change In Loans-To-GDP
61
Demographic Forecast
63
Demographic Outlook
63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
64
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
66
Methodology
68
Industry Forecast Methodology
68
Sector-Specific Methodology
69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
70
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators
71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
72

The South Africa Commercial Banking Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the commercial banking sector in South Africa. It examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment. Leading banks are profiled, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

BMI's South Africa Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the commercial banking industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent commercial banking industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African commercial banking market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Key insights into the commercial banking market, covering industry trends, key players and the regulatory environment, plus snapshots of assets, liabilities, client loans and client deposits in local currency and USD.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the commercial banking sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Commercial Banking Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors and participants looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

  • Competitive Landscape Market Data: Analysis of market size, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key annual and quarterly data.
  • Company Database: A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading commercial banks, including assets and liabilities, client loans, client deposits, capital, bond holdings, loan-deposit ratio, tier 1 capital, return on assets, earnings per share and market capitalisation.

Company Profiles and SWOTs

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Commercial Banking reports draw on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.