South Africa Commercial Banking Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the commercial banking industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Commercial Banking Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews and Company Profiles.

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  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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South Africa Commercial Banking Report
Product Price
$1,295.00
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits Other
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
December 2014, ZARbn 4,179.9 3,177.3 524.5 478.1 4,179.9 556.6 3,002.2 621.1
December 2015, ZARbn 4,827.3 3,530.4 787.2 509.6 4,827.3 615.7 3,295.5 916.0
% change y-o-y 15.5% 11.1% 50.1% 6.6% 15.5% 10.6% 9.8% 47.5%
December 2014, USDbn 361.8 275.0 45.4 41.4 361.8 48.2 259.9 53.8
December 2015, USDbn 311.8 228.0 50.8 32.9 311.8 39.8 212.8 59.2
% change y-o-y -13.8% -17.1% 12.0% -20.5% -13.8% -17.5% -18.1% 10.0%
Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, December 2015
Loan/deposit ratio Loan/asset ratio Loan/GDP ratio GDP Per Capita, USD Deposits per capita, USD
na = not available. Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
107.13% 73.14% 86.89% 5,976.4 3,905.9
Falling Falling Rising na na
Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%)
Assets Loans Deposits
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
Annual Growth Rate 9 9 9
CAGR 9 9 9
Ranking 28 26 31
Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016
Loan/deposit ratio Loan/asset ratio Loan/GDP ratio
Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
14 3 27
Local currency asset growth Local currency loan growth Local currency deposit growth
29 23 26
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020
2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = forecast. Source: BMI; Central banks; Regulators
Total assets, ZARbn 3,836 4,180 4,827 5,213 5,683 6,194 6,752 7,359
Total assets, USDbn 365.6 361.3 332.9 342.4 358.9 376.1 394.2 413.2
Client loans, ZARbn 2,932 3,177 3,530 3,848 4,195 4,572 4,983 5,432
Client loans, USDbn 279.5 274.6 243.5 252.8 264.9 277.6 291.0 305.0
Client deposits, ZARbn 2,780 3,002 3,296 3,576 3,880 4,209 4,567 4,955
Client deposits, USDbn 264.9 259.5 227.3 234.9 245.0 255.6 266.7 278.2
BMI Industry View
7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, December 2015
7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%)
7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016
8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020
8
SWOT
9
Commercial Banking
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Industry Trend Analysis
14
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
17
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
17
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index
18
Market Overview
19
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Outlook
19
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014
19
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016
20
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (USDbn)
21
Table: Comparison Of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016
22
Economic Analysis
23
Competitive Landscape
26
Market Structure
26
Protagonists
26
Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector
26
Definition of The Commercial Banking Universe
26
List Of Banks
27
Table: Member Banks
27
Company Profile
29
Absa Bank (Barclays Africa Group)
29
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
31
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
32
Table: Key Ratios (%)
32
African Bank
33
Table: Stock Market Indicators
35
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
35
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
35
Table: Key Ratios (%)
36
FirstRand
37
Table: Stock Market Indicators
39
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
40
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
40
Table: Key Ratios (%)
40
Investec
41
Table: Stock Market Indicators
43
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
43
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
43
Table: Key Ratios (%)
44
Nedbank Group
45
Table: Stock Market Indicators
47
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
47
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
47
Table: Key Ratios (%)
48
Standard Bank
49
Table: Stock Market Indicators
51
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn)
51
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn)
51
Table: Key Ratios (%)
52
Regional Overview
53
Industry Trend Analysis
53
Global Industry Overview
56
Industry Forecast
56
The Reserves Penalty
56
Mixed Results So Far
59
Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already-
64
In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent
65
Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary
67
Demographic Forecast
68
Demographic Outlook
68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
69
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
71
Methodology
73
Industry Forecast Methodology
73
Sector-Specific Methodology
74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
75
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators
76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
77

The South Africa Commercial Banking Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the commercial banking sector in South Africa. It examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment. Leading banks are profiled, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

BMI's South Africa Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the commercial banking industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent commercial banking industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African commercial banking market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Key insights into the commercial banking market, covering industry trends, key players and the regulatory environment, plus snapshots of assets, liabilities, client loans and client deposits in local currency and USD.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the commercial banking sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Commercial Banking Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors and participants looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

  • Competitive Landscape Market Data: Analysis of market size, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key annual and quarterly data.
  • Company Database: A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading commercial banks, including assets and liabilities, client loans, client deposits, capital, bond holdings, loan-deposit ratio, tier 1 capital, return on assets, earnings per share and market capitalisation.

Company Profiles and SWOTs

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Commercial Banking reports draw on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.