BMI View: We have made further negative revisions to our forecast over the next five- year period for the South African consumer electronics market in our Q2 2016 report update to account fo r the stronger-than- anticipated rand depreciation against the US dollar. Consumer electronics device spending growth in South Africa has been negatively impacted by economic weakness in 2013-2015, with the squeeze on spending from rand depreciation against the US dollar most significant in the PC and AV segments. Rand depreciation eroded South African household purchasing power in global markets, though with the trend of depreciation expected to ease over the medium term, it will to some extent be offset by an increasing supply of low-cost smartphones and tablets. Such low-cost smart devices have proved the most resilient device categories, as demonstrated by the popularity of smartphones launched by MTN and Vodacom, and we expect this to remain the case over the forecast period to 2020.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
We have made further downgrades to our forecast for the consumer electronics market due to the stronger-than-anticipated depreciation of the rand against the US dollar.
Computer Sales: USD1.71bn in 2016 to USD1.68bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.6%%. Rand depreciation represents downside risk by squeezing household purchasing power, resulting in deferred purchases and substitution for cheaper models.
AV Sales: USD941mn in 2016 to USD984mn in 2020, a CAGR of 0.3%. Digital camera demand cannibalisation will continue to be a drag on growth, while TV set market has a mixed outlook due to considerable scope for upgrades, but also intensifying price competition.
Handset Sales: USD3.79bn in 2016 to USD3.98bn in 2020, a CAGR of 1.5%. Handset spending growth forecast to slow as smartphone market saturation occurs, but it will continue to outperform and remain the largest segment of the South African consumer electronics market over 2016-2020.
|Smart Device Sales To Compensate For General Squeeze|
|South Africa Smart Device Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The South Africa Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in South Africa.
BMI Research's South Africa Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African consumer electronics market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.