BMI View: We have made a downward revision to our historical data and forecast for the handset market value in South Africa, to reflect lower household income data from our Retail team as well as newly sourced trade data for handsets and components . We nevertheless retain our view that the handset market will outperform, as the depreciation of the rand over 2013-2016 has squeeze d demand for higher value PC and AV devices. Our Country Risk team expects the rand to stabilise from 2017, which will allow rising demand for smartphones, tablets, supported by an increasing supply of low-cost devices, as well as previously deferred PC purchases, to drive a return to growth in US dollar terms.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Following a downgrade to our handset market value data, we now forecast the total value of the consumer electronics market to reach USD5.72bn in 2016, compared to our previous forecast of USD6.4bn.
Computer Sales: USD1.67bn in 2016 to USD1.92bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.1%. This is a slight upgrade due to the rand's recovery from multi-year lows in early 2016, but a return to sharp currency depreciation poses downside risks.
AV Sales: USD941mn in 2016 to USD984mn in 2020, a CAGR of 0.3%. Digital camera demand cannibalisation will continue to be a drag on growth, while the TV set market has a mixed outlook due to considerable scope for upgrades, but also intensifying price competition.
Handset Sales: USD3.11bn in 2016 to USD3.28bn in 2020, a CAGR of 1.5%. Handset spending growth forecast to slow as smartphone prices continue to fall and market saturation approaches, but it will continue to outperform and remain the largest segment of the South African consumer electronics market over 2016-2020.
|Smart Device Sales To Compensate For General Squeeze|
|South Africa Smart Device Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The South Africa Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in South Africa.
BMI Research's South Africa Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.