BMI View: We have further downgraded our forecast for the South African consumer electronics market in 20 16 in our Q316 report update to reflect our Country Risk team's outlook for a sharp depreciation of the rand this year. This will further squeeze demand for higher value PC and AV devices, which have been hardest hit by currency depreciatio n and weakened purchasing power in global markets over 2013-2015. However, following a 22.5% depreciation in 2016, we expect the rand to stabilise by 2020. This will allow rising demand for smartphones, tablets, supported by an increasing supply of low-cost devices, as well as previously deferred PC purchases, to drive a return to growth in US dollar terms.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
We have made further downgrades to our forecast for the consumer electronics market in 2016 due to the stronger-than-anticipated depreciation of the rand against the US dollar, but expect the currency impact to stabilise somewhat and a return to growth from 2017.
Computer Sales: USD1.65bn in 2016 to USD1.83bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.9%%. Rand depreciation represents downside risk by squeezing household purchasing power, resulting in deferred purchases and substitution for cheaper models.
AV Sales: USD941mn in 2016 to USD984mn in 2020, a CAGR of 0.3%. Digital camera demand cannibalisation will continue to be a drag on growth, while the TV set market has a mixed outlook due to considerable scope for upgrades, but also intensifying price competition.
Handset Sales: USD3.79bn in 2016 to USD3.98bn in 2020, a CAGR of 1.5%. Handset spending growth forecast to slow as smartphone market saturation occurs, but it will continue to outperform and remain the largest segment of the South African consumer electronics market over 2016-2020.
|Smart Device Sales To Compensate For General Squeeze|
|South Africa Smart Device Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The South Africa Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in South Africa.
BMI Research's South Africa Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.