BMI View: We have made a downward revision to our historical data and forecast for the consumer electronics market in South Africa , to reflect lower household income data from our Retail team , as well as newly sourced trade data for all three segments . The biggest downward revisions have been to the PC and handset markets, where both data sets suggest a faster fall in average selling prices between 2012-2015 than we had previously estimated. We , nevertheless , retain our view that the handset market will outperform, as the depreciation of the rand has squeeze d demand for higher - value PC and AV devices. We have also revised our outlook for the tablet market, which we believe has fared poorly in 2016 as larger smartphone screens and limited functionality has curbed demand for 'nice to have' devices outside of high spending households.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Computer Sales: USD1.7bn in 2016 to USD1.65bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.6%. This is a downgrade due to our expectation for ASPs to fall as more low-income consumers buy PCs.
AV Sales: USD876mn in 2016 to USD891mn in 2020, a CAGR of 0.4%. Digital camera demand cannibalisation will continue to be a drag on growth, while the TV set market has a mixed outlook due to considerable scope for upgrades, but also intensifying price competition.
Handset Sales: USD2.58bn in 2016 to USD2.77bn in 2020, a CAGR of 1.7%. Handset spending growth is forecast to slow as smartphone prices continue to fall and market saturation approaches, but it will continue to outperform and remain the largest segment of the South African consumer electronics market over 2016-2020.
|Smart Device Sales To Compensate For General Squeeze|
|South Africa Smart Device Forecast|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
The South Africa Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in South Africa.
BMI Research's South Africa Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.