BMI View: In the Q2 2015 update we undertook a major revision of the historical data for South Africa's consumer electronics market, scaling down our estimate for PC market value, as well as extending the forecast period to 2019. Even with the revision, our outlook for medium - term consumer electronics spending growth remains on track. Relatively weak economic growth, and particularly our in-house Country Risk team's forecast for rand depreciation against the US dollar 2015-2019, weigh on the growth outlook. The erosion of South African household purchasing power in global markets will to some extent be offset by an increasing supply of low- cost smartphones and tablets as mobile operators encourage greater data usage through launching own-brand low -price devices. The popularity of smartphones launched by MTN and Vodacom highlight the potential for low - priced devices although we believe there will be a steady demand for PCs and notebooks in the longer term as economic growth returns and large enterprise and government spending return to stronger levels.
Headline Expenditure Projections
PC sales: USD2.215bn in 2014 to USD2.208bn in 2015. Forecast in US dollar terms reflects the impact of rand depreciation and price pressures in the PC market as competition from low-cost tablets intensifies.
AV sales: USD1.082bn in 2014 to USD1.106bn in 2015. Digital TV sets and set-top boxes expected to drive growth in 2015, but digital camera demand cannibalisation will continue to be a drag on growth.
Handset sales: USD3.435bn in 2014 to USD3.509bn in 2015. Handset sales growth expected to outperform again in 2015 as the base of smartphone ownership continues to widen, with positive impact on overall handset average selling price.
Key Trends And Developments
The smartphone market has been the outperforming sub-segment of South Africa's consumer electronics market as volumes have boomed in recent years. BMI estimates a total of 11.140mn...
The South Africa Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in South Africa.
BMI Research's South Africa Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.