South Africa Freight Transport Report

Published 16 June 2015

  • 61 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
South Africa Freight Transport Report

BMI View : Our forecasts for the South African freight transport sector are positive across all modes in 2015 - air, road, rail, and through the country's ports. The economy will see a partial recovery from 2014's anaemic growth of 1.4%, and we forecast a real expansion of 1.9% this year and in 2016. That said, growth in freight volumes will not be particularly robust, and there are significant downside risks to our projections, not least from the mining sector and a potential hard landing in China. South Africa's freight transport sector is driven primarily by two forces: private consumption and the mining sector. Manufacturing industries play a limited role in the intermodal transport of containers, but this is primarily driven by imports. Automotives production necessitates the transport of spare and intermediate parts.

Headline Industry Data

  • Rail freight growth will be 0.9% in 2015, to 225.48mn tonnes.

  • Road freight volumes are set to expand by 3.1% in 2015, to 582.56mn tonnes.

  • Air freight volumes will expand by 2.3% to 1.52mn tonnes.

  • 2015 total trade real growth is forecast at 4.0%. In nominal terms, growth will decline by 3.4% to USD217.6bn.

We forecast real growth of 4.0% in South Africa's total trade in 2015, followed by a slight pick-up to 4.3% in 2015. This year this will be driven equally by imports and exports growth, both projected at 4.0%, while in 2016, exports will outpace imports, expanding by 4.5% while imports growth will remain at 4.0%. However, the real growth obscures the nominal picture, where we envisage a decline in South Africa's total trade levels in nominal terms. We forecast that trade will total USD217.6bn in 2015, following a decline of 3.4%. This would mark the fourth consecutive year that nominal trade in the country declines.

We forecast a 3.1% expansion in South Africa's road haulage volumes in 2015, rising to 4.6% in 2016. Our slower rate of growth in 2015 is in large part predicated on statistical base effects...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Trade Forecast
15
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2012-2019)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2012-2019)
17
Table: Main Import Partners
18
Table: Main Export Partners
19
Road Freight Forecast
19
Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2012-2019)
22
Rail Freight Forecast
22
Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2012-2019)
25
Air Freight Forecast
25
Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2012-2019)
28
Company Profile
29
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR)
29
Grindrod
33
Political Outlook
36
Domestic Politics
36
Long-Term Political Outlook
39
Table: South Africa Political Overview
42
Oil Price Outlook
44
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
44
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
44
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
45
Macroeconomic Forecasts
47
Economic Analysis
47
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019)
52
Demographic Forecast
53
Demographic Outlook
53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
54
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
61

The South Africa Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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