BMI View: BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance on South Africa's freight transport sector in 201 5 . Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, we believe that growth in the mining industry will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sector s . However, i mports of containerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as unemployment rises .
South Africa registered an increase of 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in freight volumes in September 2014, according to Statistics South Africa, based on a preliminary land transport survey. Income registered an increase of 12.3% . During Q314 the income from freight transportation rose by 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), with mining, quarrying, agriculture and forestry key contributors to this rise. These dynamics will continue to support growth in freight transport volumes in 2015.
Headline Industry Data
Rail freight growth will be 2.7% in 2015, and will average 3.0% to 2019.
Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast expand by 2.0%, returning to positive territory after a decline in volumes in 2014. Over the medium term we project a 2.2% average annual increase.
2015 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3%, and to average 4.4% over the medium term.
Road freight volumes are set to expand by 5.7% in 2015, and to average 6.1% over our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
New Coal Freight Contracts Will Guarantee Return On Transnet's Investment: The new 'take-or-pay' contract between South African freighter Transnet and coal mining company BHP Billiton will guarantee Transnet a return on its equipment and infrastructure investment. Transnet is seeking to close similar guaranteed payment agreements with its 28 other coal-mining customers.
Long-Term Congestion Risks From Delays To Durban Expansion: Expansion project delays at the port of Durban present long-term capacity challenges and congestion risks at Africa's largest container...
The South Africa Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the South African freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.