South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 02 July 2015

  • 127 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Improvements to South Africa's pharmaceutical supply chain will result in fewer drug shortages, making the country a more attractive destination for local manufacturing. Inequalities will still persist between states, with further drug shortages more likely in rural areas given the underdeveloped health systems in these parts of the country.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZAR39.79bn (USD3.67bn) in 2014 to ZAR44.12bn (USD3.62bn) in 2015; +10.9% in local currency terms and -1.4% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: ZAR330.74bn (USD30.49bn) in 2014 to ZAR360.78bn (USD29.57bn) in 2015; +9.1% in local currency terms and -3.0% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

South Africa has strong longer term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and economic development. However, the impact of currency depreciation and a worsening economic outlook have hurt its short-term growth prospects. In Q315, South Africa's place advanced from eighth to seventh position in the matrix, with a score of 51.4 out of 100.

Key Trends And Developments

  • South African Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi has met the leaders of several pharmaceutical companies and suppliers in an effort to deal with the pressing issue of drug shortages in the country. The ministry stated that there has been a shortage of some medical supplies because of a general lack of active pharmaceutical ingredients globally, which in turn is affecting both public and private health facilities. Allegations have been made that it is government incompetency which has led to the scarcity situation, but Motsoaledi refutes these claims noting that it is rather the result of profit-run pharmaceutical companies as they are the ones that supply medicines. Doctors Without Borders, however, have alleged that management and logistical challenges between the pharmaceutical companies and clinics are the primary reason for the shortage.

  • The Medicines Control Council (MCC) of South Africa will...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2019)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (South Africa 2013-2019)
27
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
27
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019)
34
Industry Risk Reward Indices
35
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index
35
South Africa Risk/Reward Index
43
Rewards
43
Risks
44
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Healthcare Sector
51
Public Healthcare Sector
52
Private Healthcare Sector
53
Healthcare Infrastructure
58
Table: Healthcare Resources (South Africa 2009-2014)
58
Table: Healthcare Personnel (South Africa 2009-2014)
59
Table: Healthcare Activity (South Africa 2009-2014)
59
Research & Development Sector
60
Clinical Trials
61
Vaccines
62
Traditional African Medicine
63
Telemedicine
64
Regulatory Development
65
Table: Drug Classification System
65
Regulatory Developments
68
Intellectual Property Environment
70
Pricing Regime
72
Table: Tiered Pharmaceutical Pricing System Is Better Than A Flat Fixed Mark-Up
73
Reimbursement Regime
74
Competitive Landscape
76
Research-Based Pharmaceutical Industry
76
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
79
Private Healthcare Market
82
Company Profile
83
Aspen Pharmacare
83
Adcock Ingram
87
Cipla Medpro
91
Ranbaxy
94
Sanofi
97
Pfizer
100
Roche
103
GlaxoSmithKline
105
Merck & Co
110
Novartis
113
Demographic Forecast
115
Demographic Outlook
115
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
116
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
116
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
117
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
117
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
118
Glossary
120
Methodology
122
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
122
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
122
Notes On Methodology
123
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
124
Index Overview
125
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
125
Indicator Weightings
126

The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for South Africa, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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