South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 31 December 2014

  • 123 pages
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$1,295.00
South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: A cooling economy, rising unemployment and a worsening consumer outlook will limit the South African pharmaceutical market 's potential in the short term. However, the government's commitment to an expansive fiscal policy, particularly to spending on healthcare infrastructure and general healthcare expenditure, will support continued growth in the sector over the next five years.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZAR34.01bn (USD3.52bn) in 2013 to ZAR38.13bn (USD3.53bn) in 2014; +12.1% in local currency terms and +0.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q414.

  • Healthcare: ZAR301.49bn (USD31.24bn) in 2013 to ZAR326.66bn (USD30.25bn) in 2014; +8.3% in local currency terms and -3.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards from Q414.

Risk/Reward Index

South Africa has longer-term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and disease burden. South Africa is one of the most promising markets in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. South Africa's score in Q115 is 56.2, ranking it fourth in the MEA region.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In November 2014 a subsidiary of Cardiome Pharma entered into an agreement with Pharmacare, which trades as Aspen Pharmacare and is a part of the Aspen Group, to sell and distribute Brinavess (vernakalant intravenous) exclusively in South Africa. Under the terms of the agreement, Aspen has agreed to specific annual commercial goals for Brinavess. Financial details of the agreement have not been disclosed.

  • In October, patients, doctors and members of civil society met with government experts to plot a course for quickly reforming South Africa's patent laws in order to improve access to affordable essential medicines. The National Summit on Intellectual Property and Access to Medicines in Pretoria was organised by TAC, which is leading the 'Fix the Patent Laws' coalition of 13 civil society organisations.

  • In October, the Department of Trade and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: South Africa Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: South Africa Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2010-2018)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: South Africa OTC Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2018)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts Local Currency (South Africa 2012-2018)
28
Other Healthcare Data
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Expenditure Breakdown
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
35
South Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Rewards
42
Risks
43
Market Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
45
Epidemiology
45
Healthcare Sector
49
Public Healthcare Sector
49
Private Healthcare Sector
51
Private Healthcare Sector Developments
55
National Health Reference Price List
56
Healthcare Infrastructure
56
Research & Development Sector
57
Clinical Trials
58
Vaccines
59
Traditional African Medicine
60
Telemedicine
61
Regulatory Development
62
Table: Drug Classification System
62
Regulatory Developments
65
Intellectual Property Environment
66
Pricing Regime
68
Table: Tiered Pharmaceutical Pricing System Is Better Than A Flat Fixed Mark-Up
69
Table: SEP Inflation, 2008-2011
70
Reimbursement Regime
70
Competitive Landscape
72
Pharmaceutical Industry
72
Pharmaceutical Pricing
75
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
77
Private Healthcare Market
78
Company Profile
79
Aspen Pharmacare
79
Adcock Ingram
84
Cipla Medpro
89
Ranbaxy
92
Sanofi
94
Pfizer
97
Roche
100
GlaxoSmithKline
103
Merck & Co
107
Novartis
109
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
113
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
114
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114
Glossary
115
Methodology
117
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
117
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
117
Notes On Methodology
118
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
119
Ratings Overview
120
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
120
Indicator Weightings
121

The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for South Africa, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc