BMI View: South Africa boasts the largest pharmaceutical market in Africa, and already has a well-established manufacturing industry supported by foreign investment. An improving regulatory environment, promising economic growth and high per capita spending will all contribute to South Africa's increasingly attractive operating environment. M ore companies will express an interest in South Africa's pharmaceutical market in the coming years as part of a strategy to increase both the scale of their manufacturing footprint and also their product portfolio in emerging S ub-Saharan markets.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: ZAR43.41bn (USD3.40bn) in 2015 to ZAR47.48bn (USD3.04bn) in 2016; +9.4% in local currency terms and -10.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: ZAR359.7bn (USD28.2bn) in 2015 to ZAR387.3bn (USD24.8bn) in 2016; +7.7% in local currency terms and -12.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.670||3.400||3.040||3.190||3.350||3.590||3.840|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.05||1.09||1.11||1.13||1.14||1.16||1.17|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||11.9||12.1||12.3||12.4||12.6||12.8||12.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||30.790||28.180||24.760||25.610||26.540||28.050||29.650|
South Africa has strong longer-term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and economic development. However, the impact of currency depreciation and a worsening economic outlook have hurt its short-term growth prospects. In Q316, South Africa's dropped from 10th to 11th position in the matrix compared to the previous quarter, with a score of 46.3 out of 100.
Navamedic has expanded its Nordic portfolio of products from South Africa-based Aspen Pharmacare. From January 1, four new products have been added to the portfolio and are expected to represent sales of around NOK30mn (USD3.4mn). The four products are Eltroxin (thyroxine), Lanoxin (digoxin), Imuran (azathioprine) and Zyloric (allopurinol). Navamedic has distributed Aspen products in the Nordic and Benelux markets since 2010 and the South African pharma is currently Navamedic's largest supplier. Navamedic commented that the expansion of the agreement with Aspen is in line with its aims to grow sales and increase margins in its Nordic Partnership Business, through which it distributes and licenses contracts for pharmaceuticals and other healthcare products.
At the annual Union World Conference on Lung Health in Cape Town in December 2016, researchers introduced a new treatment for tuberculosis (TB). Many children with TB never complete their treatment as they reject their cut or crashed-up portions of adult-sized pills. The new strawberry- and raspberry-flavoured tablets dissolve in water and come in specific kid-sized doses.
BMI Economic View
South Africa's labour market dynamics are likely to remain weak in the months ahead, after the unemployment rate soared to 26.7% in Q116, a 12-year high. Indeed, while the increase in joblessness was due in part to seasonal factors, an uptick in mining sector layoffs and a public sector hiring freeze are likely to keep unemployment near current highs, with potential to climb further. This underpins our view for a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth in 2016, to 1.0% from 1.6% in 2015.
BMI Political View
President Jacob Zuma's leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) has been weakened by his policy inconsistencies, especially the dismissal of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene, increasing the odds of a Zuma ouster, which is likely to benefit Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa. The municipal elections will weaken Zuma's position further, as we expect the ANC to lose Johannesburg, Tshwane and/or Port Elizabeth.
The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for South Africa, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.