BMI View: Delays in implementing South Africa's national health insurance scheme and intellectual property reform will negatively impact patients' access to medical treatments in the short term. Despite these impediments, innovative drugmakers and private healthcare providers will continue to seek opportunities in the interim, given the relatively high proportion of spending on patented drugs and private healthcare services.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: ZAR39.79bn (USD3.67bn) in 2014 to ZAR43.84bn (USD3.47bn) in 2015; +10.2% in local currency terms and -5.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised downwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: ZAR330.1bn (USD30.43bn) in 2014 to ZAR360.04bn (USD28.53bn) in 2015; +9.1% in local currency terms and -6.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised downwards from last quarter.
South Africa has strong longer-term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and economic development. However, the impact of currency depreciation and a worsening economic outlook have hurt its short-term growth prospects. In Q415, South Africa's remained in seventh position in the matrix compared to previous quarter, with a score of 52.6 out of 100.
Key Trends And Developments
In June, UN-backed health organisation Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) expanded its licensing agreement with US-based Gilead Sciences to allow the generic production of tenofovir alafenamide, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and other Gilead drugs in South Africa. The expansion will broaden MPP's manufacturing base by allowing South African manufacturers to partner Indian and Chinese firms in developing generics for low and middle-income nations, according to MPP's Executive Director Greg Perry. 'The revision could contribute to local production of several important antiretrovirals in South Africa and increase supply to other Sub-Saharan African countries with the world's highest HIV burden,'...
The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for South Africa, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the South African pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.