South Africa Renewables Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Renewables industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BM's Renewables Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Business Environment Rankings and Competitive Landscape.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts to test other views
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
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South Africa Renewables Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: South Africa's renewables project pipeline continues to strengthen, in line with our optimistic forecasts for renewables capacity in the country to total nearly 9.3GW by 2025. Solar and wind wil l be the technologies of choice and domestic South African companies will continue to dominate the competitive landscape, despite heavy investment from European companies.

South Africa - Headline Renewables Forecast
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, TWh 5.09 6.65 7.70 8.76 9.81 10.87 11.93 12.98 14.04 15.09 16.14
Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y 81.99 30.55 15.88 13.73 12.05 10.76 9.72 8.86 8.14 7.52 6.91
Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, MW 3,027.5 3,897.5 4,485.0 5,097.5 5,697.7 6,298.2 6,899.2 7,500.5 8,102.3 8,704.5 9,299.5
Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y 60.2 28.7 15.1 13.7 11.8 10.5 9.5 8.7 8.0 7.4 6.8

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Renewables capacity in South Africa will grow by an annual average of 12% between 2016 and 2025. This will result in an installed capacity base of nearly 9.3GW by 2025.

  • In August 2015, the Department of Energy made arrangements to offer an additional 6.3GW of renewables capacity in future auctions, providing greater opportunities for investment.

  • In October 2015, US-owned development finance institution Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) signed a formal agreement to provide USD400mn of debt financing for 100MW Redstone concentrating solar power (CSP) project in South Africa.

  • South Africa-based sawmill operator York Timber Holdings is developing a 25MW biomass power plant in Mpumalanga. The project will cost USD106mn and fuel for the plant will come from biomass waste generated after processing timber.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: South Africa - Headline Renewables Forecast
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
South Africa Renewables Forecast Scenario
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
10
Table: Ambitious Targets
11
Table: South Africa Non-Hydro Renewables Generation Forecasts, 2013-2018
16
Table: South Africa Non-Hydro Renewables Generation Forecasts, 2019-2024
16
Table: South Africa Non-Hydro Renewables Capacity, 2013-2018
17
Table: South Africa Non-Hydro Renewables Capacity, 2019-2024
18
South Africa Renewables Projects Database
19
Table: South Africa - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)
19
Industry Risk Reward Index
20
South Africa Renewables Risk/Reward Index
20
Rewards
20
Risks
20
Market Overview
22
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
22
Targets
22
Table: Ambitious Targets To Drive Growth
23
Subsidies
23
Infrastructure
23
Competitive Landscape
25
Eskom
25
Vestas
26
-lectricit- de France
26
Enel Green Power
27
Tata Power
27
Glossary
28
Table: Glossary Of Terms
28
Methodology
29
Methodology And Sources
29
Industry Forecast Methodology
29
Sources
31
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
31
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
33
Table: Weighting Indicators
34

The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.