BMI View: International solar manufacturers will increasingly set up production facilities in South Africa. This will be the result of South Africa's rapidly expanding solar market, which will increase demand for panels, the government's tightening local content requirements for renewable energy projects and the growing opportunities in the wider SSA solar market.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||5.090||6.645||7.701||8.758||9.813||10.869||11.926||12.982||14.038||15.094||16.137|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||81.986||30.548||15.883||13.733||12.047||10.759||9.720||8.858||8.136||7.522||6.905|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||3,027.5||3,897.5||4,485.0||5,097.5||5,697.7||6,298.2||6,899.2||7,500.5||8,102.3||8,704.5||9,299.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||60.2||28.7||15.1||13.7||11.8||10.5||9.5||8.7||8.0||7.4||6.8|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We have previously noted in our analysis that international solar manufacturers are increasingly turning to the South African market to set up production facilities - with prominent examples including US company SunPower, Chinese solar manufacturer JinkoSolar, France's Solairedirect and China's ReneSola .
South Africa-based solar projects developer Solar Capital opened the 90MW De Aar 3 solar farm, part of the second phase of the De Aar solar project in Northern Cape in March 2016. The first two phases cost a total of ZAR5bn (USD325.77mn), of which 25% was equity financed by South Africa's state-owned Public Investment Corporation and other local firms.
Saudi Arabian company ACWA Power opened the ZAR5bn (USD313.33mn) Bokpoort CSP plant in Groblershoop in Northern Cape province in March 2016. The 50MW facility is part of the REIPPP and the power output will be sold to Eskom under a 20-year offtake contract.
Irish energy developer Mainstream Renewable Power linked its 80MW Noupoort wind plant in South Africa to the Eskom grid in February 2016. The ZAR1.9bn (USD120.6mn) plant is reportedly the first to be connected to the grid under Round 3 of the REIPPP.
The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.