BMI View: The ongoing disconnect between the government and Eskom regarding renewable energy policy presents headwinds to the continued expansion of South Africa's renewables industry - and by extension, a downside risk to our renewables capacity forecasts. We expect no major retrenchment in policy and do not think existing projects contracted are at risk from cancellations; however, this does throw into question future rounds of the REIPPP.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||5.090||6.645||7.701||8.758||9.813||10.869||11.926||12.982||14.038||15.094||16.137|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||81.986||30.548||15.883||13.733||12.047||10.759||9.720||8.858||8.136||7.522||6.905|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||3,027.5||3,897.5||4,485.0||5,097.5||5,697.7||6,298.2||6,899.2||7,500.5||8,102.3||8,704.5||9,299.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||60.2||28.7||15.1||13.7||11.8||10.5||9.5||8.7||8.0||7.4||6.8|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In September, the US Trade and Development Agency awarded SolarReserve a grant for several mid-sized urban solar projects in South Africa. The grant will aid SolarReserve South Africa in developing a blueprint for the implementation of 50MW of solar PV projects in urban areas, initially. The total capacity may be expanded further to 200MW.
Mainstream Renewable Power commissioned the 80MW Noupoort wind plant in September. The USD132.7mn wind plant is expected to produce about 304,800MWh of clean renewable energy.
Cennergi, a 50:50 joint venture (JV) between Exxaro and Tata Power, commissioned a 95MW wind project in August. The scheme, called Tsitsikamma community wind farm, is equipped with 31 Vestas V 112 machines, each with capacity of 3.075MW.
In August, Eskom postponed the signing of a PPA for the 100MW Redstone Solar Thermal Power Project in Northern Cape, 'until further notice'. The plant is being developed by SolarReserve and ACWA Power. The 20-year PPA was postponed 'purely on conditions precedent not being met'.
The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.