South Africa Renewables Report

Published 27 March 2015

  • 39 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
South Africa Renewables Report

BMI View: Two pertinent risks are threatening the growth prospects of the South African renewable industry. Both South Africa's ageing and inefficient power network infrastructure and the country's lack of resource capacity to ensure both the conventional power and renewable industries grow in tandem are threatening the sustainability of growth in the renewables sector.

We have been tracking South Africa's rapidly expanding renewables industry over the last three years, as the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) has progressed. The success of the procurement programme, in terms of attracting international renewables developers and suppliers into the market and bringing projects online, has cemented South Africa as one of the key renewable energy growth markets, not just in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) but globally.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In March 2015, the Northern Cape Department of Economic Development, Spanish engineering company Abengoa and South Africa's Industrial Development Corporation launched a 100MW CSP plant near Pofadder. The ZAR7.9bn (USD671.71mn) KaXu Solar One park will supply energy to the national electricity grid, helping to reduce the power shortage in the country.

  • In January 2015, French utility GDF Suez signed a 20-year PPA with Eskom Holdings for the 100MW Kathu CSP facility in Northern Cape. GDF holds a 49% stake in the project consortium comprising South African investors SIOC Community Development Trust, Investec Bank, Lereko Metier and Public Investment Corporation.

  • Spanish conglomerate Acciona's subsidiary ACCIONA Energia has put online the 74MW Sishen solar plant in Northern Cape, South Africa in December 2014. Acciona Energia and South African group Aveng started work on the power plant in August 2013. The facility has a peak capacity of 94.3M.

  • In November 2014, Africa's largest solar PV plant was commissioned, the 96MW Jasper facility in the country's Northern Cape province, near...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
South Africa Renewables Forecast Scenario
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
Table: REIPPP Capacity Target, 2016
South Africa Renewables Projects Database
Table: Renewable Projects - South Africa
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
South Africa Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
Targets (Renewables And Emissions)
Competitive Landscape
-lectricit- de France
Tata Power
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators

The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc