BMI View: South Africa continues to be a global renewable energy hotspot, owing to the presence of effective regulatory mechanisms to attract investment (REIPPP) . The high rate of capacity growth registered by the market over the last two years and the strong investor interest shown in the auction, particularly from international renewables developers, attest to the REIPPP's success and support our positive forecasts.
South Africa - Headline Renewables Forecast
| || 2014e || 2015f || 2016f || 2017f || 2018f || 2019f || 2020f || 2021f || 2022f || 2023f || 2024f |
| e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI |
| Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, TWh || 2.80 || 5.09 || 6.65 || 7.70 || 8.76 || 9.81 || 10.87 || 11.93 || 12.99 || 14.04 || 15.10 |
| Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y || 373.20 || 81.99 || 30.55 || 15.88 || 13.73 || 12.05 || 10.76 || 9.72 || 8.86 || 8.14 || 7.52 |
| Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, MW || 1,889.5 || 3,027.5 || 3,897.5 || 4,485.0 || 5,097.5 || 5,697.7 || 6,298.2 || 6,899.2 || 7,500.5 || 8,102.3 || 8,704.5 |
| Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y || 265.5 || 60.2 || 28.7 || 15.1 || 13.7 || 11.8 || 10.5 || 9.5 || 8.7 || 8.0 || 7.4 |
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
In August, the Department of Energy made arrangements to offer an additional 6.3GW of renewables capacity in future auctions, providing greater opportunities for investment.
We now expect solar capacity to total 3.95GW by 2024, up from a previous 2.1GW by the same time period - contributing close to 45% to the non-hydro renewables capacity mix in South Africa. Wind capacity will total 4.25GW by 2024, a significant upward revision to the previous forecast of 2.4GW - and making a contribution of over 48% to total non-hydro renewables capacity.
Irish energy developer Mainstream Renewable Power begun construction work on the 80MW Noupoort wind park in Umsobomvu Local Municipality, Northern Cape in July 2015. The Noupoort wind facility is scheduled to be...
The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.