South Africa Renewables Report

Published 01 July 2015

  • 52 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
South Africa Renewables Report

B MI View: South Africa's renewable energy auctions continue unabated despite the conventional power sector remaining firmly in crisis mode. We have long-held the view that the country's renewables sector is a brightspot in South Africa's energy industry, a view supported by the successful outcome of the country's fourth bidding window of the REIPPP.

We have been tracking South Africa's rapidly expanding renewables industry over the last three years, as the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) has progressed. The success of the procurement programme, in terms of attracting international renewables developers and suppliers into the market and bringing projects online, has cemented South Africa as one of the key renewable energy growth markets, not just in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) but globally.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In March 2015, the Northern Cape Department of Economic Development, Spanish engineering company Abengoa and South Africa's Industrial Development Corporation launched a 100-megawatt (MW) CSP plant near Pofadder. The ZAR7.9bn (USD671.7mn) KaXu Solar One park will supply energy to the national electricity grid, helping to reduce the power shortage in the country.

  • German turbine manufacturer Nordex connected the 80MW Kouga wind farm in Oyster Bay to the grid in June 2015. The German company's subsidiary Nordex Energy South Africa installed 32 units of N90/2500 turbines for the project. Construction of the power plant took two years to complete and Nordex will also be responsible for maintaining the wind farm.

  • It was announced in June 2015 that Industrial group Gestamp Renewables' business unit Gestamp Wind secured a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 102MW Copperton wind project in Northern Cape. The USD169.7mn project was awarded in the fourth round of the country's REIPPP. Signing of the PPA and the start of construction is expected to take place by Q116 and the wind farm is scheduled to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Industry Forecast
8
South Africa Renewables Forecast Scenario
8
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
8
Table: South Africa's Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
9
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
11
Table: South Africa's Electricity Generating Capacity, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
12
Table: REIPPP Capacity Target, 2016
14
South Africa Renewables Projects Database
21
Table: Renewable Projects - South Africa
21
Industry Risk Reward Index
25
South Africa Renewables Risk/Reward Index
25
Rewards
25
Risks
25
Market Overview
27
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
27
Targets (Renewables And Emissions)
27
Subsidies
27
Infrastructure
28
Competitive Landscape
29
Eskom
29
Vestas
30
-lectricit- de France
30
Tata Power
30
Glossary
32
Table: Glossary Of Terms
32
Methodology
33
Methodology And Sources
33
Industry Forecast Methodology
33
Sources
35
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
35
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
37
Table: Weighting Indicators
38

The South Africa Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in South Africa. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in South Africa, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in South Africa, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's South Africa Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the South Africa renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in South Africa, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc