BMI View: We forecast positive growth across South Africa's ports in 2015, following a decline at many facilities in 2014. High levels of unemployment and negative sentiment have been weighing on consumer demand, but we expect that a fall in the price of oil will boost household spending in 2015. While demand will still be far from robust, it will nevertheless not see a dip. In terms of gross tonnage volumes, coal will continue to be the primary driver of growth, although the slowdown in China does present some risk to this.
Headline Industry Data
Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast to return to growth at 2.0% following a decline in 2014. Over the medium term to 2019 we project a 2.2% average annual increase.
Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2015. Growth will average 3.2% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2019.
2015 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3%, and will average 4.4% per annum to 2019.
Key Industry Trends
Lower Oil Will Help Container Demand: The dramatic fall in the price of oil through the final months of 2014 will help support consumer demand in South Africa in 2015, thereby boosting growth in imports of containerised goods. That said, the outlook for the South African consumer is still relatively downbeat given ongoing high levels of unemployment and other factors, and demand will be fairly sedate. At Durban, the largest container-handling facility in South Africa, we forecast container throughput growth of 2.5% in 2015.
Transnet Plans Durban Port Upgrades : Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) plans to invest ZAR17bn (USD1.45bn) in infrastructure upgrades at the Port of Durban by 2023. The upgrades include construction of a sand pump station at Berth A Island View; deepening of berth two, five and six at Island View; and the development of a fifth berth at Bayhead. Plans are also under way to provide between 940m and 1.2km of extra space at the port to...
The South Africa Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in South Africa.
BMI's South Africa Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.