Growth at South African ports is threatened by the global headwinds that are posing challenges for the country as a whole, namely the China slowdown and the drying up of foreign inflows due to the raised possibility that the extraordinarily loose monetary policy that has been the norm in the US is tapered off. However, with continued investment in facilities, growth in private final consumption, and ever-expanding coal exports, we forecast growth in both total tonnage and container volumes at South African ports in 2015.
Headline Industry Data
Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast to return to growth at 2.0% following a 2014 decline. Over the medium term to 2019 we project a 2.2% average annual increase.
Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2015. Growth will average 3.2% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2019.
2015 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3%, and to average 4.4% per annum to 2019.
Key Industry Trends
Long-Term Congestion Risks From Delays To Durban Expansion: Expansion project delays at the port of Durban present medium- to long-term capacity challenges and congestion risks at Africa's largest container terminal. South Africa's port of Nqura will be able to pick up some of the slack.
Transnet Plans Hub Ports To Cut Shipping Costs: South African state-owned ports and rail operator Transnet plans to set up hub ports in order to accommodate larger vessels and cut down shipping costs. Port charges at South African ports are currently among the highest in the world, with tariffs at the port of Durban 874% above the global average for containers, according to a 2012 study by the Ports Regulator of SA.
Port Of Ngqura Sees Business Boost: The new South African Port of Ngqura is now the third busiest in the country, according to the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics. The port, developed by the National Ports Authority of South Africa and maintained by Transnet Port Terminals...