South Africa Shipping Report

Published 30 March 2015

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$1,295.00
South Africa Shipping Report

BMI View: We forecast positive growth across South Africa's ports in 2015, following a decline at many facilities in 2014. High levels of unemployment and negative sentiment have been weighing on consumer demand, but we expect that a fall in the price of oil will boost household spending in 2015. While demand will still be far from robust, it will nevertheless not see a dip. In terms of gross tonnage volumes, coal will continue to be the primary driver of growth, although the slowdown in China does present some risk to this.

Headline Industry Data

  • Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast to return to growth at 2.0% following a decline in 2014. Over the medium term to 2019 we project a 2.2% average annual increase.

  • Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2015. Growth will average 3.2% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2019.

  • 2015 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3%, and will average 4.4% per annum to 2019.

Key Industry Trends

Lower Oil Will Help Container Demand: The dramatic fall in the price of oil through the final months of 2014 will help support consumer demand in South Africa in 2015, thereby boosting growth in imports of containerised goods. That said, the outlook for the South African consumer is still relatively downbeat given ongoing high levels of unemployment and other factors, and demand will be fairly sedate. At Durban, the largest container-handling facility in South Africa, we forecast container throughput growth of 2.5% in 2015.

Transnet Plans Durban Port Upgrades : Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) plans to invest ZAR17bn (USD1.45bn) in infrastructure upgrades at the Port of Durban by 2023. The upgrades include construction of a sand pump station at Berth A Island View; deepening of berth two, five and six at Island View; and the development of a fifth berth at Bayhead. Plans are also under way to provide between 940m and 1.2km of extra space at the port to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Shipping
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Port Of Durban Throughput
13
Port Of Richards Bay Throughput
18
Table: Major Ports Data, (South Africa 2012-2018)
22
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2011-2018)
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2011-2018)
25
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012
26
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012
27
Market Overview
29
South Africa Container Shipping Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
37
South Africa Company Profile
39
Safmarine
39
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL)
43
Shipping - Global Industry View
45
Container Demand:
45
Container Supply:
53
Container Rates:
59
Global Company Strategy
62
Maersk Line
62
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
73
CMA CGM
79
Evergreen Line
90
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
98
Macroeconomic Forecasts
105
Expenditure Breakdown
105
Demographic Forecast
108
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
109
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
110
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
111
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
111

The South Africa Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in South Africa.

BMI's South Africa Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc