South Africa Telecommunications Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast Scenario, Telecommunications Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Regulatory Environment, Company Profiles and Competitive

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
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South Africa Telecommunications Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for South Africa's mobile market and the country's telecoms sector. Subscription growth in the mobile market is driven by factors including operators' promotional activities, multiple SIM ownership and launch of advanced services . 3 G and 4G services have strong uptake a s well as a positive impact on non-voice service revenues , with all four carriers launching LTE-Advanced technology offerings . Further market consolidation is expected, with Liquid Telecoms ' attempt to acquire fixed-line network operator Neote l likely to be approved.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • The South African mobile subscriptions reached 90.17mn in Q116, up 8.6% y-o-y, with penetration reaching 164%. Vodacom and Cell C encountered positive customer growth in the first quarter of 2016. However, MTN experienced a decline of 511,000 customers.

  • The main source of future growth in the mobile market will be the development of 3G and 4G services, with the launch of LTE a clear signal that operators are preparing for intense competition based on the delivery of data services. We currently expect the number of 3G and 4G customers to rise to 47.7mn by the end of 2016, equivalent to 49.49% of the mobile subscriber base by the end of 2020. We forecast broadband subscriptions to increase from 8.44mn in 2016 to 9.08mn in 2020, equivalent to a penetration rate of 16.03%. Increasing competition and investment pose an upside risk to this forecast with more focused contribution to the broadband market by open access players to result in a medium-term surge of growth in the number of retail broadband subscriptions.

3G & 4G Subscriptions To Represent Half The Market By 2020
South African Mobile Market (2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, operators
BMI Industry View
7
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2020)
15
Industry Risk Reward Index
16
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
16
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
20
South Africa Risk/Reward Index
21
Market Overview
23
Market Drivers & Trends
23
Mobile
23
Wireline Voice & Broadband
32
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000)
33
Table: Telkom Internet Subscriptions ('000)
34
Regulatory Development
36
Table: National Broadband Policy Access Targets
39
Competitive Landscape
40
Table: Key Players
40
Source: Operator data
40
Table: Market Overview 2014-2015
40
Table: Vodacom
41
Table: MTN
42
Table: Cell C
44
Table: 8ta - Telkom South Africa
44
Table: Virgin Mobile
45
Company Profile
46
Cell C
46
MTN
50
Telkom
55
Vodacom
59
Demographic Forecast
63
Demographic Outlook
63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
64
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
66
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Terms
68
Methodology
70
Industry Forecast Methodology
70
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
72
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
74

The South Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of South Africa's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's South Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.