BMI View: We continue to maintain our core forecast f or the South African market and retain our positive outlook for 2016. The market has so far performed beyond our expectations, adding over 6mn subscribers in 9M15. Furthermore, the uptake of 3G and LTE services is in line with our recent revisions. We do however caution that with penetration rate inching towards 170%, there is a high likelihood of a significant number of inactive sims connections that have not been discounted. A major discounting by operators will lead us to revise our forecasts. Furthermore, we are carefully monitor ing the competitive dynamics of the South African mobile market as we believe 2016 will be the year of major consolidation as fixed line provider Telkom South Africa looks to acquire major wireless provider Cell C and Vodacom looks to acquire ISP provider Neotel.
|Organic Growth Abounds: 3G & 4G Primary Drivers Of Growth|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, operators|
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The South African mobile market grew higher than forecasted in 9M15 as the market added impressive 6mn+ subscribers. We believe that the market will end our current forecast period, 2020 with over 94mn subscribers.
The primary area of growth will be 3G and 4G development as high capital investments and the increased number of 3G and 4G sites suggests that new price wars will be targeted towards data and value added services. We are now expecting over 47.6mn 3G and 4G subscriptions by the end of our forecast period. The latest investments in developing and preparing the commercial launch of LTE-Advanced services by all major operators are a clear signal that the operators are preparing for severe competition based on data and advanced technologies.
The South African market appears to be nearing consolidation as Tel kom South Africa, the largest fixed-line provider looks to boost its declining revenues by entering the mobile market. It is considering the purchase of Cell C, the third largest cellular provider. Furthermore, wireless market leader, Vodacom, is looking to purchase ISP provider Neotel. We believe consolidation will be good for the market as it will increase competition and encourage 4G uptake and innovations.
The South Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of South Africa's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's South Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in South Africa.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.