South Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 04 August 2015

  • 81 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
South Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The South African mobile market is highly competitive and at 159% has one of the highest penetration rates in Africa. BMI believes organic growth in the market has now run out of steam, with average annual growth for the next four years estimated at only 1.14%. Intense competition, exacerbated by new MVNO me&you mobile launching in May 2015, will see mobile ARPU s gradually decline. We expect regulatory progress on spectrum management and network sharing agreements to remain slow, resulting in increasingly aggressive moves to cut costs as operators seek to maintain their profit margins. Similarly to the global trend, the South African telecoms market is moving towards consolidation, with a merger between mobile operators Vodacom and Neotel due imminently.

Key Data

  • The mobile market grew by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q115 to bring total subscription base to 82.995mn.

  • Market average average revenue per user (ARPU) declined by 11.9% in 2014 owing to intensified competition - though it showed signs of improvement in Q414 and Q115.

  • 3G subscriptions accounted for 34.7% of the mobile market in 2014.

  • The broadband market grew by 10.4% in 2014 to 7.6mn subscriptions.

Early Signs Of Recovery?
Blended Monthly ARPU (ZAR)
Source: Operators, BMI
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Telecoms
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019)
15
Industry Risk Reward Index
20
Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index - Q4 2015
20
Table: SSA Telecoms Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
23
Market Overview
25
Telecoms
25
Regional Perspective
25
Table: South Africa Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2014
26
Mobile Growth
26
Table: South Africa Mobile Market
30
ARPU
32
Networks
33
Table: Selected VAS Developments
35
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000)
36
Broadband
36
Table: Telkom Internet Subscriptions
37
Table: Recent Fibre Developments
38
Regulatory Development
39
Table: South Africa - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
39
Latest Developments
42
Table: National Broadband Policy Access Targets
44
Competitive Landscape
45
Table: Key Players
45
Operator Data
45
Table: Market Overview
45
Table: Cell C
46
Table: MTN
46
Table: Telkom
47
Table: Vodacom
48
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators (USDmn)
49
Company Profile
50
Cell C
50
MTN
54
Neotel
58
Telkom
62
Vodacom
66
Demographic Forecast
70
Demographic Outlook
70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
71
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
71
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
73
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sources
79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
81

The South Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of South Africa's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's South Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in South Africa.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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