BMI View: Despite the rich deposits of untapped minerals on offer, we believe South East Asia's mining sector will struggle to fulfil its potential over the next few years. China's economic slowdown will remove a crucial outlet for raw material exports in the region and, more importantly, will impact the profitability of mining ventures, with high start up costs likely to deter new investment. While states such as Myanmar have made strides to relax the regulatory environment to encourage increased private sector investment, substantial obstacles remain across many parts of the region, including high levels of corruption and limited infrastructure. As such, many parts of the region continue to be perceived as frontier markets as far as mining activity is concerned.
|e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Laos||Mining Industry Value, USDbn||0.80||0.80||0.80||0.80||0.90||1.00||1.10|
|Laos||Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-6.31||-5.16||-0.51||7.49||12.40||11.89||7.50|
|South Korea||Mining Industry Value, USDbn||1.28||1.27||1.27||1.26||1.25||1.25||1.24|
|South Korea||Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-1.10||-0.50||-0.50||-0.50||-0.50||-0.50||-0.50|
|Thailand||Mining Industry Value, USDbn||10.29||8.61||7.68||7.17||7.12||7.07||7.04|
|Thailand||Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-15.75||-16.35||-10.74||-6.64||-0.77||-0.71||-0.41|
|Cambodia||Mining Industry Value, USDbn||0.16||0.19||0.22||0.25||0.28||0.31||0.34|
|Cambodia||Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||20.00||18.00||16.00||15.00||10.00||10.00||10.00|
|Vietnam||Mining Industry Value, USDbn||16.90||15.50||15.00||15.20||16.50||17.80||19.20|
|Vietnam||Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-5.71||-8.40||-3.15||1.70||8.14||7.94||7.88|
|Myanmar||Mining Industry Value, USDbn||5.63||6.52||7.70||9.50||11.97||14.99||17.55|
|Myanmar||Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||18.62||15.94||18.06||23.36||26.00||25.26||17.08|
Latest Updates And Developments:
Australian miner PanAust Ltd has continued to post robust production figures at its Phu Kham mine in Laos, with 1,071 tonnes (t) of copper ore mined during Q1 2016 and 24,039 ounces of (oz) gold.
In April 2016, Australia's Eumeralla Resources announced the receipt of a mining permit to tin and tungsten in Cambodia before September 2016. The firm has allocated USD450,000 to be used to finalise the formal grant process with a view to beginning exploration in the country.
In March 2016, Thailand's National Legislative Assembly passed an amendment to the country's mining legislation. The decision which will allow the junta to continue to gain further control over mining operations in the country.
In January 2016, Vietnam's prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung appeared to renege on previous promises to expand the country's coal-fired energy sector. It seems likely that the government will bow to international pressure to reduce carbon emissions and to prioritise the growth of renewables and other products over thermal coal in the country's energy mix.
The South East Asia Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's South East Asia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand, South Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.