BMI View: We hold a modestly subdued outlook for the South Korean agricultural sector. The livestock industry has been plagued with various disease outbreaks in the past that have largely been contained. Government-led efforts will benefit the industry over the longer term and help it to remain relevant. These include the expansion of education and financial support for farmers to allow them entry into the food processing business; plans to modernise traditional methods of food production; the creation of new agricultural food districts for exporters; and the introduction of state designation of food exporting companies.
Cheese consumption growth to 2020: 22.8% to 153,500 tonnes. As Western food has become more popular in Korea, demand for cheese has expanded rapidly. The majority of cheese is consumed in restaurants and fast food outlets, and comes in the form of processed cheese. Exporters with the lowest prices, such as the US, have gained a market share in supplying the South Korean cheese industry.
Rice consumption growth to 2020: 2.7% to 4.6mn tonnes. As South Koreans substitute rice with bread for their carbohydrate intake, consumption of the grain is expected to post only weak growth.
BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD34.03bn in 2016 (up 2.2% compared with 2015, growth forecast to average 1.8% annually between 2016 and 2020).
2016 real GDP growth: 2.8% (up from 2.4% expected in 2015, forecast to average 3.3% between 2016 and 2020).
2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y ave (up from 1.0% expected in 2015, forecast to average 2.1% between 2016 and 2020).
2016 central bank policy rate: 1.25% y-o-y eop (down 25 basis points from 2015, forecast to rise 25 basis points a year to 2.25% by 2020).
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Production in the dairy sector will remain subdued in 2015/16 as farmers struggle with elevated production costs and stagnating raw milk prices. The price of raw fluid milk has been stagnating since 2013, with planned price increases being postponed. Manufacturers are facing increasing competition from imports. Dairy consumption - including cheese, whole milk powder and fluid milk - will continue to grow at a faster pace than production in 2016. Cheese consumption will be particularly strong in 2016, growing by 5.0% to 131,000 tonnes, whereas domestic production will remain unchanged at around 24,000 tonnes.
Rice production will reach a record level in the ongoing 2015/16 season, owing to good weather and area allocation. Output will come in at 4.3mn tonnes, up 2.0% y-o-y. Meanwhile, consumption will continue to decline.
|Astronomical Surge in Imports:|
|Cheese Imports by South Korea, '000 tonnes|
|Note: 2016 figures are USDA estimates. Source: USDA|
The South Korea Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's South Korea Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.