South Korea Autos Report

Published 10 June 2015

  • 66 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
South Korea Autos Report

According to the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (KAMA), domestic vehicle sales in January 2015 grew 4.9% y-o-y to 112,407 units. The positive start to the year bodes well for our full-year sales growth forecast of 2.7% and we are happy to maintain that at present.

Five South Korean automakers - Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors, GM Korea, Renault Samsung Motors and Ssangyong Motor - reported a 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in combined sales to 797,839 units in April amid weak exports, according to data provided by the respective companies. While domestic sales increased 2.9% to 133,935 units during the month, overseas shipments were down 1.3% to 663,904 units. Hyundai Motor attributed the drop in overseas sales to persisting weak economic growth in emerging markets and deepening currency uncertainty.

Auto sales have been steadily growing over the past year, helped by Bank of Korea's base rate cut in October 2014. Moreover, new models introduced by domestic and foreign carmakers in the past few months such as the new generation Genesis have also stimulated consumer demand. With our Country Risk team forecasting interest rates to remain at their current low level of 2.0% throughout the year ( see 'Rates To Remain On Hold Despite Downside Risks', February 17), sales will continue to benefit from consumer access to affordable auto financing.

However, we see some headwinds for auto sales in the coming months, which will result in the market growing at a slower pace in 2015 compared with 2014, when sales expanded by 5.8%. A more challenging external outlook, coupled with unfavourable domestic circumstances, has resulted in our Country Risk team downgrading its 2015 GDP growth forecast to 3.1%.

According to the KAMA, Korean auto production rose 2.1% y-o-y in January 2015, to 376,018 units. After growing by 0.1% in 2014, we forecast total industry output to once again grow only marginally in 2015 by 0.5%, as a stronger Korean won provides some resistance to...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Sales
15
Production
19
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
21
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
21
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Economic Activity (South Korea 2010-2019)
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
29
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Index
31
Competitive Landscape
32
Company Developments
32
Company Profile
34
Company Monitor
34
1
35
2
35
3
35
4
36
5
36
Hyundai Motor
38
Kia Motors
40
Ssangyong Motor
42
Renault Samsung Motors
43
Regional Overview
44
Asia Overview
44
Table: Asia Production Investment September 2014-January 2015
45
Global Industry Overview
53
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
53
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
53
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
55
Asia Carries The BRIC States
56
Demographic Forecast
58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Korea 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Korea 1990-2025)
59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Korea 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (South Korea 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Korea 1990-2025)
61
Methodology
63
Industry Forecasts
63
Sector-Specific Methodology
64
Sources
64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
65
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
66

The South Korea Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's South Korea Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in South Korea.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Korean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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