BMI View: Once more, we anticipate the road freight sector to be South Korea's outperforming mode in 2015, with year-on-year (y-o-y) gains expected to come in at 4.00%. Slipping domestic demand has ensured that this figure is down on 12 months previous ly , however. This is a trend we expect to see continue over our forecast period, while rail and air freight will see y-o-y growth rise slightly to 2019. Underpinning this growth to a certain extent will be increasing trade with the ASEAN trade bloc.
South Korea's Q2 2015 real GDP grew by 2.2% y-o-y, reflecting the economy's slowest growth rate in nine quarters. We maintain our forecast for 2015 real GDP growth to come in at 2.8% as we expect the domestic economy to pick up slightly over the coming quarters, following external shocks to the domestic economy with this brightening domestic picture boosting South Korea's freighters as demand improves. However, external demand is likely to remain weak due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy as well as the weak Japanese yen.
Korean exports will continue to face external headwinds from both the ongoing economic slowdown in China, as well as the relative strength of the won compared to the yen. Considering its status as Korea's largest trade partner (accounting for approximately a quarter of exports), the ongoing slowdown in China's economy will continue to weigh on Korea's export growth, thus having a detrimental impact on South Korea's freight industry, tempering growth. Offsetting this is the fact that the Park Geun-hye government is currently actively seeking to beef up trade links with the rest of the world.
Over the course of 2015, we have pencilled in healthy y-o-y growth for the road freight sector, however, debt-laden domestic consumers have scaled back their spending somewhat, thus resulting in annual growth sliding slightly from 5.00% to 4.00%. Between 2015 to 2019, we expect average annual growth to come in at 4.72%, beating the other modes. Our bearish...
The South Korea Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's South Korea Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.