BMI View: We envisage the outperformer in South Korea's freight mix to be road freight in 2015, growing by a healthy 4.00%. This is down on 2014's estimate, however as domestic demand for goods drops this year. We expect to see steady, if uninspiring growth in both the rail and air freight modes in 2015 (2.50% and 1.52% respectively), as moving further into 2015, South Korea will face an increasingly challenging external environment with the falling Japanese yen (relative to the Korean won) leading to increased competition with Japanese producers; Korean and Japanese companies are major rivals in the global export market.
With both the domestic and global outlook remaining weak, we have downgraded our real GDP forecast for 2015 to 3.1% from 3.5% to reflect persistent weaknesses in Korea's main trading partners along with relatively anaemic domestic sentiment. Key trade partners will continue to be China and Japan (in terms of both imports and exports) and total trade will grow 2.15% in real terms in 2015, with exports outperforming imports (2.50% compared to 1.80%, respectively). Meanwhile, the Park Geun-hye government has been actively seeking to strengthen trade links with the rest of the world while expressing its interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Over 2015, we expect the road freight sector to record the strongest performance, which although the outperformer is down on 2014, 2013 and 2012 as consumer demand drops due to debt-laden South Koreans scaling back their spending. Although slower than the previous three years, year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in 2015 will be a healthy 4.00%. Our bearish outlook regarding the Korean economy in 2015 is informed by unfavourable internal and external circumstances that will weigh on both domestic consumption and exports over the course of the year.
External headwinds and a slowdown in domestic private consumption will temper the growth in Korean auto sales in 2015, while imported car brands will continue to...
The South Korea Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's South Korea Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.