BMI View: Both the life and the non-life segments of South Korea's sophisticated insurance sector should benefit from the ageing of the population. I n Q416 , we have made slight upwards adjustments to our estimates of life and long-term insurance premiums in 2015, but have otherwise left our forecasts unchanged.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, KIRI|
|Gross life premiums written, KRWbn||106,084.28||110,575.00||116,888.09||122,744.39||129,686.17||137,785.43||146,614.75||156,250.78|
|Gross life premiums written, KRW, % y-o-y||-8.0||4.2||5.7||5.0||5.7||6.3||6.4||6.6|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||96.91||105.01||103.32||102.29||108.98||116.03||126.12||138.89|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-5.3||8.4||-1.6||-1.0||6.5||6.5||8.7||10.1|
|Gross non-life premiums written, KRWbn||71,420.76||76,575.00||83,683.38||90,165.04||97,841.14||106,776.28||116,512.07||127,128.85|
|Gross non-life premiums written, KRW, % y-o-y||4.2||7.2||9.3||7.8||8.5||9.1||9.1||9.1|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||65.25||72.72||73.97||75.14||82.22||89.92||100.23||113.00|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||7.2||11.5||1.7||1.6||9.4||9.4||11.5||12.8|
Key Updates And Forecasts
South Korea is in many ways the archetypal North Asian insurance sector. Life insurance has long played a central role in the economy and society as a conduit for organised savings. This is in a country where the savings rate has typically been high and the provision of social security by the state has been limited. Two factors set the insurance sector apart from others. One is the fact that long-term savings and protection products are also a very important business for South Korea's non-life companies, which effectively operate as composites. The other is that many of the leading companies benefit from their association with the c haebol corporate groups which dominate South Korea's economy.
Recent results from the largest insurers confirm that they are benefiting from a number of factors. For instance, life insurance continues to be seen as an attractive opportunity relative to other savings and investments, given very low interest rates and the volatility of financial markets. Particular life insurers (and, indeed, non-life insurers) have had success in promoting long-term protection products. Over the long-term, demand for retirement income products will grow thanks to the ageing of the population. Relative to Q216, we made minimal changes to our forecasts. Gross life premiums are forecast to reach KRW156,250bn in 2020. Growth will continue into 2021 and beyond.
The ageing of the population should also boost demand for long-term savings and protection products that are offered by the non-life insurers. Demographic changes should also support the development of health and personal accident insurance. We have made minimal changes to our forecasts this quarter. Motor vehicle insurers may benefit from slightly higher volumes than our Autos team had foreseen; however, the impact will likely be offset by slippage in prices. We forecast gross non-life premiums to reach KRW127,128bn in 2020.
The South Korea Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's South Korea Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Korean insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in South Korea's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Korea through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.