South Korea Oil & Gas Report

Published 26 May 2015

  • 123 pages
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$1,295.00
South Korea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: South Korea will benefit from a lower oil price environment. Not only will its refiners gain some breathing space after years of poor refining margins, it also could see a lower import bill. Gas consumption is likely to trend downwards over our forecast period, owing to slower economic growth in the short-term, and a shift away from gas in the power sector in the longer term.

Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 20.0 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.4 18.1 18.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 53.9 49.0 49.0 49.5 49.5 48.5 47.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,590.8 2,590.8 2,616.7 2,642.9 2,669.3 2,682.7 2,709.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,260.6 2,259.9 2,267.6 2,275.4 2,283.4 2,291.3 2,299.0

The key trends for South Korea's oil and gas sector are:

  • South Korea's large refining sector will keep its crude oil import requirements high. It is also heavily exposed to the Middle East, given that the region supplies more than 80% of its crude oil needs.

  • It will be more difficult for South Korea to diversify its crude import sources away from Middle East, given the latter's willingness to offer competitive rates in exchange for market share.

  • A lower oil price environment will provide short-term relief for refining margins in South Korea.

  • Asia will remain its dominant export market for refined oil products. Flows to Western Europe will be supported by South Korea's free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU that allows it to compete with exports from the US.

  • South Korea is expected to remain a large LNG importer. However, we forecast a slow decline in its gas import requirement over our forecast period as...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2019-2024)
9
Upstream Projects
13
Table: South Korea: Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2013-2018)
13
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2019-2024)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2013-2018)
15
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2019-2024)
15
Refining
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2013-2018)
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2019-2024)
17
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2013-2018)
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2019-2024)
20
Gas Consumption
23
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2013-2018)
23
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption Forecast
26
Risks To Outlook
28
Trade - Oil
29
Crude Oil Trade
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
29
Crude Oil Trade
30
Refined Oil Trade
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Korea 2013-2018)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Korea 2019-2024)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
38
LNG Trade
39
South Korea Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
South Korea Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Major Korean LNG Supply Deals
40
Trade Partners
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Industry Risk Reward Index
42
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
43
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
45
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
45
South Korea - Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
48
South Korea Upstream Index - Overview
48
South Korea Upstream Index - Rewards
48
South Korea Upstream Index - Risks
48
South Korea Downstream Index - Overview
48
Market Overview
49
South Korea Energy Market Overview
49
Role Of The State
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In South Korea
50
Service Stations
51
Oil Storage
52
LNG Terminals
53
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea
53
Gas Storage
53
Gas Pipelines
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Competitive Landscape Summary
55
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil And Gas Sector
56
Table: Key Upstream Players
56
Table: Key Downstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
58
Korea Gas (Kogas)
62
SK Innovation
66
Other Summaries
70
Regional Overview
74
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
74
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
74
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
77
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
78
South Korea Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
South Korea Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
82
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
83
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
85
Global Industry Overview
88
Oil Price Outlook
88
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
88
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
89
Appendix
96
Asia - Regional Appendix
96
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
105
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
106
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
107
South Korea - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
108
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
108
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
108
South Korea - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Korea 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Korea 2019-2024)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Korea 2013-2018)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Korea 2019-2024)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Korea 2013-2018)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Korea 2019-2024)
114
Glossary
116
Table: Glossary Of Terms
116
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Source
120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
120
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
122
Table: Weighting
123

The South Korea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for South Korea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South Korea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for South Korea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Korean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc