South Korea Oil & Gas Report

Published 23 July 2015

  • 114 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
South Korea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The lower oil price environment will help to boost refining margins and reduce South Korea's import bill. Weaker Chinese demand and rising competition in the refined fuels export market will require Korean refiners to invest in producing higher-grade fuels, as well as petrochemical products. While South Korea will remain a large net importer of LNG, slower economic growth and greater integration of cleaner energy sources will dilute gas' share in the country's total energy mix in the coming years.

Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Korea National Oil Corporation, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 20.0 20.0 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.4 18.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 52.6 47.8 47.8 48.2 48.2 47.3 46.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,590.8 2,821.1 2,849.3 2,877.8 2,906.6 2,921.1 2,950.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,260.6 2,259.9 2,267.6 2,275.4 2,283.4 2,291.3 2,299.0

The key trends for South Korea's oil and gas sector are:

  • South Korea's large refining sector will keep its crude oil import elevated over the next decade. The Middle East will remain the country's largest supplier of crude oil, though will face competition from African and Russian suppliers.

  • A lower oil price environment will provide short-term relief for refining margins in South Korea, however, slower-than-anticipated demand growth in the country's major export market, China, as well as falling domestic demand will temper demand for Korean refined products.

  • Asia will remain its dominant export market for refined oil products. Flows to Western Europe will be supported by South Korea's free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU that allows it...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2019-2024)
9
Upstream Projects
13
Table: South Korea: Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2013-2018)
13
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2013-2018)
16
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2019-2024)
16
Refining
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2013-2018)
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2019-2024)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2019-2024)
21
Table: South Korea - Average Gasoline Prices By Brand, May 2015
24
Gas Consumption
25
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2019-2024)
26
Electricity Generation
27
Gas Consumption Forecast
27
Trade - Oil
29
Crude Oil Trade
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
29
Refined Oil Trade
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Korea 2013-2018)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Korea 2019-2024)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
36
LNG Trade
37
Table: Major Korean LNG Supply Deals
38
Trade Partners
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Industry Risk Reward Index
40
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
41
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
44
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
South Korea - Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
47
South Korea Upstream Index - Overview
47
South Korea Upstream Index - Rewards
47
South Korea Upstream Index - Risks
47
South Korea Downstream Index - Overview
47
Market Overview
48
South Korea Energy Market Overview
48
Fiscal Regime
48
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
48
Open Blocks
49
Table: Open Offshore Blocks
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In South Korea
50
Service Stations
50
Oil Storage
51
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In South Korea
51
LNG Terminals
51
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea
51
Gas Storage
52
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In South Korea
52
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In South Korea Under Construction
52
Gas Pipelines
53
Table: Gas Distribution Pipelines In South Korea
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil And Gas Sector
55
Table: Key Upstream Players
56
Table: Key Downstream Players
56
Company Profile
57
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
57
Korea Gas (Kogas)
62
SK Innovation
67
Other Summaries
72
Regional Overview
76
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
76
Global Industry Overview
81
Global Energy Market Overview
81
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
85
Appendix
87
Asia - Regional Appendix
87
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
97
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
98
South Korea - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
99
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (South Korea 2013-2018)
99
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (South Korea 2019-2024)
99
South Korea - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Korea 2013-2018)
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Korea 2019-2024)
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Korea 2013-2018)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Korea 2019-2024)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Korea 2013-2018)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Korea 2019-2024)
106
Glossary
107
Table: Glossary Of Terms
107
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Source
111
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
111
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
113
Table: Weighting
114

The South Korea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for South Korea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South Korea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for South Korea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Korean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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