South Korea Oil & Gas Report

Published 26 May 2015

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South Korea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: South Korea will benefit from a lower oil price environment. Not only will its refiners gain some breathing space after years of poor refining margins, it also could see a lower import bill. Gas consumption is likely to trend downwards over our forecast period, owing to slower economic growth in the short-term, and a shift away from gas in the power sector in the longer term.

Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 20.0 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.4 18.1 18.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 53.9 49.0 49.0 49.5 49.5 48.5 47.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,590.8 2,590.8 2,616.7 2,642.9 2,669.3 2,682.7 2,709.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,260.6 2,259.9 2,267.6 2,275.4 2,283.4 2,291.3 2,299.0

The key trends for South Korea's oil and gas sector are:

  • South Korea's large refining sector will keep its crude oil import requirements high. It is also heavily exposed to the Middle East, given that the region supplies more than 80% of its crude oil needs.

  • It will be more difficult for South Korea to diversify its crude import sources away from Middle East, given the latter's willingness to offer competitive rates in exchange for market share.

  • A lower oil price environment will provide short-term relief for refining margins in South Korea.

  • Asia will remain its dominant export market for refined oil products. Flows to Western Europe will be supported by South Korea's free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU that allows it to compete with exports from the US.

  • South Korea is expected to remain a large LNG importer. However, we forecast a slow decline in its gas import requirement over our forecast period as...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: South Korea Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: South Korea Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: South Korea Oil Production And Net Crude Oil Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: South Korea Oil Production And Net Crude Oil Exports, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
18
Table: South Korea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
18
Table: South Korea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
19
Gas Supply And Demand
21
Table: South Korea Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: South Korea Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
21
LNG
24
Table: Major Korean LNG Supply Deals
24
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
South Korea - Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
South Korea Upstream Rating - Overview
27
South Korea Upstream Rating - Rewards
27
South Korea Upstream Rating - Risks
27
South Korea Downstream Rating - Overview
27
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
29
The Upstream Leaders
29
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
32
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Downstream Support
34
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Market Overview
40
South Korea Energy Market Overview
40
Role Of The State
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In South Korea
41
Service Stations
42
Oil Storage
43
LNG Terminals
44
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea
44
Gas Storage
44
Gas Pipelines
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Competitive Landscape Summary
46
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil And Gas Sector
47
Table: Key Upstream Players
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
47
Company Profile
48
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
48
Korea Gas (Kogas)
53
SK Innovation
57
Other Summaries
60
Regional Overview
63
Asia Overview
63
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
63
Tightening In The Downstream
67
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
71
A Hot Market For LNG
75
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
78
Global Industry Overview
80
Global Energy Market Overview
80
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
82
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
83
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
84
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
86
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
86
Appendix
89
Asia - Regional Appendix
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
98
South Korea - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
106
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
114
Table: Weighting
115

The South Korea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for South Korea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South Korea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for South Korea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Korean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc