South Korea Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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South Korea Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: South Korea will remain a global refining powerhouse, due to the sheer size of its refining sector and the sophisticated nature of existing refineries. Tepid consumption growth outlook for refined fuels amid rising competition externally will encourage refiners to lower run rates in the coming years, negatively impacting exports. Hefty off-take arrangements with international suppliers suggest that Korea is at substantial risk of having over-contracted its gas needs.

Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: KNOC, KOGAS, Bloomberg, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 20.0 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.5 18.5 18.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 2,821.1 3,068.6 2,945.9 2,916.4 2,901.8 2,887.3 2,872.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,347.8 2,613.6 2,622.2 2,630.8 2,639.5 2,648.1 2,675.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 49.7 42.7 42.3 41.9 41.4 41.0 40.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • We do not expect any additions to South Korea's current refining capacity of 3.0mn b/d within the next decade, as rising competition in the exports market and tightening conditions in the domestic market limit scope for major expansion campaigns.

  • The Middle East will remain the country's largest supplier of crude oil, though the government is actively trying to diversify its crude sources. Shipments from Iran nearly doubled compared to the previous year, while ongoing diversification efforts will provide opportunities for suppliers in Europe, West Africa and Latin America to increase their market share.

  • Korea's Q116 LNG imports increased 0.5% y-o-y, as cooler-than-average temperatures over the first two months of the year boosted demand for heating. Qatar remained the top supplier, while Australia saw a significant upsurge in its export volumes.

  • Korea will remain a key supplier of refined fuels to the global markets. Gasoline is mostly shipped to buyers in Asia, including Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam, while its low-sulphur diesel is in much sought after by Australia and European importers, such as the Netherlands.

  • The government could seek to liberalise the domestic retail electricity market and LNG trading sector, currently dominated by KEPCO and KOGAS respectively, to encourage greater private sector participation. Such a move could reportedly lower electricity rates by 10.0% (including for that of gas-fired generation), encouraging greater consumption, though cost-competitiveness of nuclear and coal pose headwinds.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2014-2019)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2020-2025)
11
Upstream Projects
12
Table: South Korea - Key Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2014-2019)
14
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2020-2025)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends
15
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2014-2019)
15
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2020-2025)
16
Refining
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2014-2019)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2020-2025)
20
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Korea 2014-2019)
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Korea 2020-2025)
22
Gas Consumption
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2014-2019)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2020-2025)
25
Trade - Oil
26
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2014-2019)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2020-2025)
29
Refined Oil Trade Forecasts
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2014-2019)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2014-2019)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2020-2025)
35
Industry Risk Reward Index
36
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
36
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
37
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
37
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
40
South Korea - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
South Korea Upstream Index - Overview
42
South Korea Upstream Index - Rewards
42
South Korea Upstream Index - Risks
42
South Korea Downstream Index - Overview
42
Market Overview
44
South Korea Energy Market Overview
44
Fiscal Regime
44
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
44
Open Blocks
44
Table: Open Offshore Blocks
44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Refineries In South Korea
46
Oil Storage
46
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In South Korea
47
LNG Terminals
47
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea
47
Gas Storage
48
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In South Korea
48
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In South Korea Under Construction
48
Gas Pipelines
49
Table: Gas Distribution Pipelines In South Korea
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Competitive Landscape Summary
50
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil & Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
52
Company Profile
53
KOGAS
53
KNOC
58
SK Innovation
63
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
72
Industry Trend Analysis
72
Glossary
80
Table: Glossary Of Terms
80
Methodology
82
Industry Forecast Methodology
82
Source
84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
84
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
86
Table: Weighting
87

The South Korea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for South Korea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's South Korea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for South Korea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Korean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.