BMI View: The outlook for South Korea's renewables industry remains muted, despite the recent announcement of the government's clean energy investment plan. The country's challenging regulatory environment for renewables and the availability of cheaper sources of power, notably nuclear and coal, will undermine investment in the sector.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data|
|Generation, Total, TWh||552.270||571.070||594.620||617.850||635.820||656.610||678.060|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||532.5||550.4||573.3||596.0||613.6||633.8||654.8|
|Capacity, Net, MW||105,064.3||112,188.8||116,941.9||120,819.4||122,814.9||125,142.1||127,149.2|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast overall power generation to grow at an average of 3.6% a year between 2016 and 2025, reaching 788.4 terawatt hours (TWh) by the end of the period. While coal- and gas-fired generation will continue to play a vital role, we expect nuclear generation to have the fastest growth rates. That said, we believe high growth rates will feature more greatly in the second half of our 10-year forecast period, given the current high level of public distrust of nuclear power.
The South Korean market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will cool in the near-term, as high prices and company obligations to cut expenditure will see Kogas and utilities trim LNG purchases and rely on nuclear whenever possible. In the longer term, new gas power plants and the country's quest to increase power supply to the market will mean LNG demand rises, although we have also moderated our forecasts to show slower demand growth.
The South Korea Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The South Korea Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks South Korea's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Korea.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).