BMI forecasts a 16.5% increase in vehicle sales in 2015 coming from a forecasted 15.0% increase in the passenger car segment and a 26.3% increase in the commercial vehicle (CV) segments. Past 2015, we forecast growth to taper off to a period of slower single digit growth after two years of double-digit growth, expanding by 2.4% in 2016 and averaging 4.7% annually from 2016 to the end of our five-year forecast period in 2019. Thus, we do not expect Spain's vehicle market to reach volumes similar to its pre-crisis levels above 2mn units over the next five years.
Spain's long-term sales outlook remains subdued owing to our weak private consumption outlook for the country. Spain's ageing vehicle fleet means that the country has the potential to boost new car sales growth over the next five years through a replacement cycle but we do not believe this will actually materialise. Spain's auto sector recovery is based on shaky foundations and still remains reliant on PIVE subsidies, which we currently expect to expire by end-2016.
Spain's consumers are still too weak and overleveraged to ramp-up spending on new vehicles to pre-crisis levels, thus, a strong and sustainable recovery in sales driven by macroeconomic factors is very unlikely to appear over our five-year forecast period to 2019. Instead, the fastest growing segments will remain the CV segment and the fleet channel for passenger cars as businesses become increasingly more confident about their future prospects and take advantage of low interest rates to raise their borrowing for autos purchases and satisfy pent-up demand after years of weak volume sales in these markets. LCV and Heavy truck sales will also be bolstered by the extension of PIMA Aire purchasing subsidies for low emissions vehicles.
BMI forecasts vehicle production in Spain to increase 9.4% in 2015. This comes from a projected 11.0% increase in passenger car output over the year and a 2.6% increase in CV production. Spanish autos production is...
The Spain Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Spain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Spain.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Spain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Spanish automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Spanish automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Spain.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.