BMI View: Growth in the Spanish pharmaceutical market will remain slow but steady, despite being an economic outperformer in Western Europe. The ageing population of Spain, and the wider Europe region, will create significant revenue earning opportunities for drugmakers . However, as populations age, the effective economic old-age dependency ratio is also projected to rise sharply. This will place pressures on government budgets and the funds available for welfare spending, including expenditure on pharmaceuticals and healthcare.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR25.18bn (USD27.93bn) in 2015 to EUR25.62bn (USD27.42bn) in 2016; +1.7% in local currency terms and -1.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR93.98bn (USD104.23bn) in 2015 to EUR95.18bn (USD101.84bn) in 2016; +1.3% in local currency terms and -2.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards slightly from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||32.780||27.930||27.420||28.650||30.400||32.160||32.600|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.37||2.33||2.22||2.18||2.13||2.09||2.03|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||26.5||26.8||26.9||26.9||26.7||26.3||25.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||123.640||104.230||101.840||106.620||114.060||122.160||125.770|
In BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q316, Spain scored 67.5 and ranked 12th out of the 15 countries surveyed in Western Europe - just below the Netherlands (70.6). While Spain offers investors positive features, such as its large drug market (Market Expenditure score of 16.0 out of 20) and a high pensionable population (score of 8.0 out of 8), it also has problems, such as the government's focus on cost containment, low population growth, cumbersome bureaucracy and provincial differences regarding drug regulations and reimbursement.
Key Trends And Developments
In May 2016, Alexza Pharmaceuticals and Grupo Ferrer Internacional entered into a definitive agreement under which Ferrer Pharma will acquire Alexza for USD0.90 per share in cash.
In May 2016, government data revealed waiting times for non-urgent operations in Spain had increased to 89 days, up two days from last year despite efforts to reduce these times.
In May 2016, health authorities in Spain detected the country's first known case of microcephaly in the foetus of a pregnant woman infected with the Zika virus.
Data published by industry association Farmaindustria showed that the correlation between Spain's elderly population (>65 years) and the prescription demand per capita is positive and high, representing a correlation coefficient of +0.71.
BMI Economic View
Spanish real GDP growth will outperform peers in the eurozone periphery over the next decade, but will remain sluggish by historical standards. A deteriorating demographic profile and sluggish productivity gains will be long-term headwinds for growth.
BMI Political View
The economic impacts of Brexit would be manageable for Spain. But Brexit would embolden Catalan's secessionist movement, cast doubts over status of the huge number of Britons living in Spain, and lead to further disputes with Madrid over the status of Gibraltar.
The Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Spain pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Spain, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Spain.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.