BMI View: We maintain our subdued outlook for the Spanish pharmaceutical market. Price caps on originator medicines have negatively impacted the country ' s generic drug sector, which lags behind other European markets. However, new measures to improve access to generic and biosimilar medicines will lead to greater opportunities for generic drugmakers operating in the country.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR24.71bn (USD33.11bn) in 2014 to EUR25.18bn (USD27.70bn) in 2015; +1.9% in local currency terms and -16.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR90.72bn (USD121.56bn) in 2014 to EUR91.69bn (USD100.86bn) in 2015; +1.1% in local currency terms and -17.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||31.961||33.111||27.703||27.404||28.620||30.352||32.100|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.31||2.33||2.24||2.18||2.14||2.10||2.04|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||26.7||27.2||27.5||27.5||27.3||27.0||26.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||119.901||121.563||100.859||99.788||104.864||112.477||120.726|
In BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q116, Spain scored 64.4 and ranked 12th out of the 15 countries surveyed in Western Europe - just below the Netherlands (64.7). While Spain offers investors positive features, such as its large drug market, it also has problems, such as the government's focus on cost containment, low population growth, cumbersome bureaucracy and provincial differences regarding drug regulations and reimbursement.
Key Trends And Developments
In November 2015, the European Generic and Biosimilar Medicines Association (EGA) and the Spanish Generic Medicines Association (AESEG) reported an engagement to increase Spanish patients' access to generics and biosimilars.
Spain-based pharmaceutical company Almirall reported a 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in revenues on a like-for-like basis to EUR595.3mn (USD639.58mn) in 9M15, ended September 30.
In November 2015, Spanish pharmaceutical company Grifols secured a EUR100mn (USD108.7mn) in loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) to support R&D into the use of plasma proteins to treat Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other ailments.
Switzerland-based biotechnology company mAbxience announced the opening of its first European biosimilars facility on October 16. The plant is located at Leon, in Spain, and spread over an area of 16,000 sq m.
The Spanish pharmaceutical industry experienced a 1.4% y-o-y rise in terms of both value and units in September, according to the consultancy HMR Spain. The branded drug sales dropped 1% y-o-y in value and 0.3% y-o-y in units during the month, while generic drugs increased 6.5% y-o-y in value and 1.8% y-o-y in units.
Spain-based Cinfa Biotech, a biosimilar subsidiary of Infarco Group, has outlined its strategy to develop and commercialise biosimilars. The company's first product candidate is B12019, a biosimilar version of Amgen's Neulasta (pegfilgrastim).
BMI Economic View
While Spain will remain a eurozone growth outperformer, real GDP growth will soften over the coming quarters. We believe the main positive impact of low global oil prices, a weaker EUR, and a cyclical upswing in eurozone demand is behind us. As a result, we forecast real GDP growth to come in at 2.7% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016, below Bloomberg consensus estimates for growth of 3.1% and 2.6% respectively.
BMI Political View
Spain will have a coalition government following the December 20 general election, led by the ruling PP. While a coalition government involving more than one major party would represent an entry into uncharted waters, the low likelihood of the far-left Podemos party playing a role in such a government is net positive from a financial market and macroeconomic stability perspective.
The Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Spain pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Spain, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Spain.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.