BMI View: The Spanish pharmaceutical market has struggled in the face of the economic crisis , but is now expected to return to pre-crisis levels in the coming years. Despite being an economic outperformer in Western Europe, market growth will remain slow but steady through the forecasted period, sustained by a n aging population . However, we believe the government will continue with cost-efficient policies aimed at the pharmaceutical sector in order to control rising healthcare bills.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR25.15bn (USD27.70bn) in 2015 to EUR25.61bn (USD27.40bn) in 2016; +1.7% in local currency terms and -1.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR90.80bn (USD99.88bn) in 2015 to EUR92.56bn (USD99.04bn) in 2016; +1.9% in local currency terms and -0.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||33.111||27.703||27.404||28.619||30.350||32.096||32.516|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.37||2.28||2.22||2.18||2.13||2.07||2.01|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||27.5||27.7||27.7||27.5||27.2||26.9||26.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||120.346||99.877||99.041||103.963||111.376||119.440||123.074|
In BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q216, Spain scored 67.5 and ranked 12th out of the 15 countries surveyed in Western Europe - just below the Netherlands (70.2). While Spain offers investors positive features, such as its large drug market, it also has problems, such as the government's focus on cost containment, low population growth, cumbersome bureaucracy and provincial differences regarding drug regulations and reimbursement.
Key Trends And Developments
Eisai has entered into an agreement with Esteve to co-promote Fycompa (perampanel) in Spain from February 2016.
In February 2016, Spain-based pharmaceutical company Almirall completed the purchase of Swiss Poli Group in a deal worth EUR365mn (USD385.8mn).
In February 2016, Grifols reported net revenues of EUR3.93bn (USD4.27bn) in 2015, growing 17.3% from the previous year. The group posted a profit of EUR532mn (USD578mn), representing a 13.2% increase from 2014.
In December 2015, the government approved the Royal Decree 1090/2015, which regulates clinical trials with drugs, ethics committees and the Spanish Clinical Trials Register.
In November 2015, Spanish pharmaceutical industry group Farmaindustria and the Ministries of Finance and Health signed a 12-month collaboration deal, with the aim of making the Spanish national health services more sustainable.
BMI Economic View
The Spanish economy will remain one of the fastest growing in the eurozone in 2016, in spite of the country's ongoing political impasse. A further leg down in oil prices has prompted us to revise up our real GDP forecasts to 2.5% in 2016 and 2.2% the following year, from 2.4% and 2.1% previously.
BMI Political View
Attempts by the People's Party to form a coalition government following the Spanish December 2015 general election have been clouded by Catalonia's failure to elect a regional president. A fractured secessionist movement reduces the perceived need for Spain's traditional parties to work together in a coalition arrangement.
The Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Spain pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Spain, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Spain.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.