BMI View: Although the Spanish economy is expected to continue outperforming its eurozone counterparts in the coming years, growth in the country ' s pharmaceutical sector will remain modest. An aging population will ensure the demand for high-value medicines remains high over the long-term. However, rising healthcare costs will see the government continue its pro-generic stance as well as implementing price control measures on medicines, limiting revenue earning opportunities for innovative drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR25.21bn (USD27.96bn) in 2015 to EUR25.70bn (USD27.50bn) in 2016; +2.0% in local currency terms and -1.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR93.98bn (USD104.23bn) in 2015 to EUR94.59bn (USD101.21bn) in 2016; +0.7% in local currency terms and -2.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||32.780||27.960||27.500||27.490||27.170||27.070||27.460|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.37||2.33||2.32||2.29||2.24||2.18||2.12|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||26.5||26.8||27.2||27.2||27.1||26.9||26.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||123.640||104.230||101.210||100.910||100.100||100.610||103.410|
In our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q416, Spain scored 67.5 and ranked 12th out of the 15 countries surveyed in Western Europe - just below the Netherlands (70.6). While Spain offers investors positive features, such as its large drug market (Market Expenditure score of 16.0 out of 20) and a high pensionable population (score of 8.0 out of 8), it also has problems, such as the government's focus on cost containment, low population growth (score of 1.0 out of 5), cumbersome bureaucracy and provincial differences regarding drug regulations and reimbursement.
Key Trends And Developments
In September 2016, German healthcare company Fresenius agreed a EUR5.8bn (USD6.4bn) leveraged buy-out for Spain's largest private hospital operator Quironsalud, expecting the transaction to be completed by early 2017.
In August 2016, Orexigen Therapeutics Ireland and Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi executed a commercialisation and distributorship agreement for Mysimba (naltrexone HCl /bupropion HCl prolonged release) in Spain.
In July 2016, Funds advised by Apax Partners entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the operating subsidiaries of Invent Farma, a Spanish pharmaceutical company, from a consortium of investors led by Silfurberg, Framtakssjoour Islands (Enterprise Investment Fund) and Horn II.
In July 2016, RedHill Biopharma together with IntelGenx signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Grupo JUSTE for the commercialisation of Rizaport (rizatriptan benzoate), a proprietary oral thin film formulation for the treatment of acute migraines, in Spain.
Farmaindustria, has backed the Spanish government's interest for Spain to host the European Medicines Agency (EMA) headquarters should it move from its current location in the UK following Brexit.
BMI Economic View
Despite the ongoing political impasse, economic growth in Spain has proved resilient. Recently released data showed Spain's economy expanded by 3.2% y-o-y in Q216, marking a slight slowdown from the 3.4% recorded in the previous quarter. However, while we believe that Spain's economy will remain a eurozone growth outperformer over the next two years, we maintain our view that the country's economic recovery is peaking.
BMI Political View
The August 10 agreement between the PP and Ciudadanos increases the chances of a government being formed. Although this will lead to greater political certainty in the near-term, any future administration is likely to be relatively unstable and fractious.
The Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Spain pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Spain, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Spain.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.