Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We maintain our subdued outlook for the Spanish pharmaceutical market. Price caps on originator medicines have negatively impacted the country ' s generic drug sector, which lags behind other European markets. However, new measures to improve access to generic and biosimilar medicines will lead to greater opportunities for generic drugmakers operating in the country.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR24.71bn (USD33.11bn) in 2014 to EUR25.18bn (USD27.70bn) in 2015; +1.9% in local currency terms and -16.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR90.72bn (USD121.56bn) in 2014 to EUR91.69bn (USD100.86bn) in 2015; +1.1% in local currency terms and -17.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Spain 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 31.961 33.111 27.703 27.404 28.620 30.352 32.100
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.31 2.33 2.24 2.18 2.14 2.10 2.04
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6
Health spending, USDbn 119.901 121.563 100.859 99.788 104.864 112.477 120.726

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q116, Spain scored 64.4 and ranked 12th out of the 15 countries surveyed in Western Europe - just below the Netherlands (64.7). While Spain offers investors positive features, such as its large drug market, it also has problems, such as the government's focus on cost containment, low population growth, cumbersome bureaucracy and provincial differences regarding drug regulations and reimbursement.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In November 2015, the European Generic and Biosimilar Medicines Association (EGA) and the Spanish Generic Medicines Association (AESEG) reported an engagement to increase Spanish patients' access to generics and biosimilars.

  • Spain-based pharmaceutical company Almirall reported a 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in revenues on a like-for-like basis to EUR595.3mn (USD639.58mn) in 9M15, ended September 30.

  • In November 2015, Spanish pharmaceutical company Grifols secured a EUR100mn (USD108.7mn) in loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) to support R&D into the use of plasma proteins to treat Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other ailments.

  • Switzerland-based biotechnology company mAbxience announced the opening of its first European biosimilars facility on October 16. The plant is located at Leon, in Spain, and spread over an area of 16,000 sq m.

  • The Spanish pharmaceutical industry experienced a 1.4% y-o-y rise in terms of both value and units in September, according to the consultancy HMR Spain. The branded drug sales dropped 1% y-o-y in value and 0.3% y-o-y in units during the month, while generic drugs increased 6.5% y-o-y in value and 1.8% y-o-y in units.

  • Spain-based Cinfa Biotech, a biosimilar subsidiary of Infarco Group, has outlined its strategy to develop and commercialise biosimilars. The company's first product candidate is B12019, a biosimilar version of Amgen's Neulasta (pegfilgrastim).

BMI Economic View

While Spain will remain a eurozone growth outperformer, real GDP growth will soften over the coming quarters. We believe the main positive impact of low global oil prices, a weaker EUR, and a cyclical upswing in eurozone demand is behind us. As a result, we forecast real GDP growth to come in at 2.7% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016, below Bloomberg consensus estimates for growth of 3.1% and 2.6% respectively.

BMI Political View

Spain will have a coalition government following the December 20 general election, led by the ruling PP. While a coalition government involving more than one major party would represent an entry into uncharted waters, the low likelihood of the far-left Podemos party playing a role in such a government is net positive from a financial market and macroeconomic stability perspective.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
24
OTC Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Spain 2011-2019)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Spain 2013-2019)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Spain 2013-2019)
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: Economic Activity (Spain 2010-2019)
38
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Index
39
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
39
Spain Risk/Reward Index
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Healthcare Sector
49
Table: Regional Public Hospital Debt - Values In EURmn
50
Table: Healthcare Resources (Spain 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Spain 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Spain 2009-2014)
53
Research & Development
53
Clinical Trials
54
Regulatory Development
57
Intellectual Property Issues
58
Parallel Trade
59
OTC Medicines
60
Generic Medicines
61
Pricing Regime
61
Reference Pricing System
63
Reimbursement Regime
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Pharmaceutical Sector
67
Generic Drug Sector
68
Biotechnology Sector
69
Pharmaceutical Retail
71
Company Profile
74
Almirall
74
Esteve
77
GlaxoSmithKline
80
Merck & Co
82
Novartis
84
Pfizer
86
Sanofi
88
Demographic Forecast
90
Demographic Outlook
90
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Spain 1990-2025)
91
Table: Key Population Ratios (Spain 1990-2025)
91
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Spain 1990-2025)
92
Table: Population By Age Group (Spain 1990-2025)
92
Table: Population By Age Group % (Spain 1990-2025)
93
Glossary
95
Methodology
97
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
97
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
97
Notes On Methodology
98
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
99
Index Overview
100
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
100
Indicator Weightings
101

The Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Spain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Spain pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Spain, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Spanish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Spain.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.