Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
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BMI View: Domestic generic drugmakers will be at a distinct advantage under Sri Lanka's proposed national medicinal policy. With directives boosting generic drug sales through generic substitution, local pharmaceutical companies will be further assisted as the government aims to use the policy to reduce medicine imports. We highlight that these changes will come at the expense of drugmakers in India and Bangladesh, which have been a key source of pharmaceutical imports into Sri Lanka.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: LKR82.88bn (USD609mn) in 2015 to LKR90.57bn (USD612mn) in 2016.

  • Healthcare: LKR308.39bn (USD2.27bn) in 2015 to LKR335.42bn (USD2.26bn) in 2016.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, WHO, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.575 0.609 0.612 0.636 0.674 0.719 0.763
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.73
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6
Health spending, USDbn 2.16 2.26 2.26 2.35 2.50 2.67 2.86

Risk/Reward Index

Sri Lanka's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q216 stands at 35.3 out of a total of 100, making it the third least attractive pharmaceutical market out of 19 monitored in the Asia Pacific region. The main reason for the country's low score is the relatively small population size, which presents modest opportunities, and government efforts to encourage the prescription of generic drugs.

Latest Updates

  • In February 2016, Minister of Health and Indigenous Medicine Rajitha Senaratne noted that the country does not have a shortage of pharmaceuticals. The ministry notes that 13 of the 24 products that were running short will soon be supplied while it continues to wait for the other 11.

  • That same month, the government noted that Zika is not a threat to the country. However, precautions have been put in place such as equipment at airports to conduct health screenings.

  • In January 2016, Sri Lanka's government has called for a tie up between the country and Kerala in promoting the use of traditional medicines.

BMI Economic View

Despite a likely recovery in the industrial sector over the coming quarters, we expect the Sri Lankan economy to face mounting headwinds from a difficult global economic outlook, a high fiscal deficit, and rising risks of a Balance of payments crisis. As such, we have downgraded Sri Lanka's real GDP growth forecast for 2016 to 6.3%, from 6.7% previously, representing a stabilisation of growth in the economy (with growth estimated to come in at 6.2% in 2015).

BMI Political View

Given that the Sri Lankan economy is relatively small and open, the administration's balanced and pragmatic approach towards ethnic reconciliation on the island and foreign relations will be positive for growth over the medium-to-long term. However, we believe that there will be several key challenges which will inhibit progress over the near-term.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2012-2020)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2012-2020)
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Sri Lanka 2014-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Indices
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
Sri Lanka - Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Review
Intellectual Property Issues
Pricing And Reimbursement Regimes
Market Overview
Healthcare Sector
Clinical Trials
Competitive Landscape
Research-Based Industry
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
Company Profile
Hemas Holdings
State Pharmaceuticals Corporation (SPC)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sri Lanka pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sri Lanka, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sri Lankan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sri Lankan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sri Lanka.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.