Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Sales of medicines in Sri Lanka will see reasonable growth ahead. Commercial opportunities are curtailed by the Sri Lanka's under-developed healthcare system and preference for generic drugs. Multinational drugmaker investments, which could catalyse the sector's growth, will be impaired by the dominant position of state-linked firms and the depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: LKR75.1bn (USD575mn) in 2014 to LKR82bn (USD771mn) in 2015. Forecasts remain flat compared with the previous quarter with a downgrade in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: LKR282.5bn (USD2.2bn) in 2014 to LKR424.0bn (USD2.9bn) in 2015. Forecasts are slightly up compared with the previous quarter with a downgrade in US dollar terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, WHO, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.524 0.575 0.612 0.625 0.673 0.722 0.771
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.78 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.75
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7
Health spending, USDbn 1.996 2.163 2.276 2.315 2.498 2.686 2.881

Risk/Reward Index

Sri Lanka's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q116 stands at 38.2 out of a total of 100, making it the seventeenth-most attractive pharmaceutical market out of 19 monitored in the Asia Pacific region. The main reason for the country's low score is the relatively small population size, which presents modest opportunities.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In October 2015, the Pharmaceutical Traders Association of Sri Lanka called on the government to amend certain provisions of the National Medicines regulatory Authority Act. Under the act, it was compulsory to dispense the medicines by pharmacists or registered apprentice pharmacists under direct supervision of a pharmacists. However, there was a critical shortage of qualified pharmacists in Sri Lanka.

  • That same month, local news sources noted concerns that the newly established National Medicinal Drugs Regulatory Authority (NMDRA). Concerns were particularly acute around the potential to impose price controls on medicines which will benefit firms and pharmacies. In December 2015, additional concerns were raised of the NMDRA that new medicines and devices were facing significant delays in receiving regulatory approval.

BMI Economic View

Following the re-election of the United National Party in August polls, and the return of political stability, Sri Lanka's economy will likely see a slight pickup in growth over the coming quarters. As such, we maintain our forecast for Sri Lanka's GDP to come in at 6.5% in 2015, and 6.7% in 2016.

BMI Political View

The formation of a national unity government will be constructive for Sri Lanka's foreign policy and Sinhalese-Tamil reconciliation. While the consensus resolution adopted by Colombo and the international community indicates that progress will continue to be made, we believe that the reconciliatory process will continue to be a challenging one.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2011-2019)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
21
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2013-2019)
22
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Sri Lanka 2013-2019)
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Economic Analysis
25
Industry Risk Reward Indices
30
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
30
Sri Lanka - Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
37
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Epidemiology
39
Healthcare Sector
43
Hospital Infrastructure
44
Healthcare Financing
47
Clinical Trials
47
Regulatory Development
49
Regulatory Developments
51
Counterfeits
53
Pricing And Reimbursement Regimes
54
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
55
Supply Chain
55
Competitive Landscape
58
Pharmaceutical Industry
58
Table: Local Drug Manufacturers
59
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
60
Pharmaceutical Distribution And Retail
61
Company Profile
63
State Pharmaceuticals Corporation (SPC)
63
Hemas Holdings
67
GlaxoSmithKline
70
Demographic Forecast
73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
74
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
74
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
75
Table: Population By Age Group (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
75
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
76
Glossary
78
Methodology
80
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
80
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
80
Notes On Methodology
81
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
82
Index Overview
83
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
83
Indicator Weightings
84

The Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sri Lanka pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sri Lanka, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sri Lankan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sri Lankan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sri Lanka.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.