Sri Lanka Telecommunications Report

Published 23 July 2015

  • 65 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Sri Lanka Telecommunications Report

BMI View :

The telecoms industry in Sri Lanka has yet to utilise the country's prime location lying on major trade routes and serving as a gat eway to the Indian subcontinent. Although upgrades to infrastructure are being made by the government and SLT, pre-paid subscriptions dominant in a low ARPU mobile market and the prospects for more premium services are modest. 4G LTE mobile broadband services have begun to be rolled out despite low uptake for 3G services to date. The telecoms tax will squeeze margins in the mobile industry with consolidation likely to accelerate, while the broadband sector will rely on SLT's new fibre-optic network being rolled out by the end of 2016. As with much of the wider industry, pay-TV suffers from a lack of competition , with Dialog dominating. The sector is also held back by widespread piracy , which could take some time to counter given the digital transition deadline of 2020.

Key Data

  • With improvements in broadband coverage and speed vital to the future of the telecoms industry in Sri Lanka, there is pressure on SLT to complete its fibre-optic network on time by the end of 2016. Broadband subscriptions are forecast to reach 3.2m by 2019, although the number of Internet users will be near 12.4mn by this time.

  • The decline in telephone lines in use will continue and fall to under 2.3mn by 2019 as mobile penetration rises to 118%. Although improving infrastructure will facilitate new technologies including 4G, and subscribers to 3G/4G services will double over the forecast period, it will remain a low proportion of total mobile subscriptions at 8.4% in 2019.

  • Over 74% of mobile phone subscriptions remain prepaid which limits the market for premium services, and average ARPU has declined steadily as operators compete aggressively on price. Further consolidation is likely in the mobiles market will with telecoms tax eroding operator revenues.

  • Dialog Axiata continues to dominate the mobiles market with over 40% of...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile SWOT
9
Wireline SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Operational Risk
15
Industry Forecast
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2012-2019)
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Asia Pacific Risk/ Reward Index - Q4 2015
23
Outperformers (1-10)
24
Average-Performers (11-20)
25
Underperformers (21-28)
26
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index - Q415
27
Market Overview
29
Mobile
29
Table: Sri Lanka Mobile Subscriptions By Contract Type ('000)
30
Broadband
33
Pay-TV
34
Fixed-Line
36
Table: Sri Lanka Fixed Line Data, 2007-2014
36
Regulatory Development
37
Regulatory Overview
37
Table: Sri Lanka: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
37
Table: Licences Granted
38
Pay-TV Legislation
38
Regulatory Developments
39
Competitive Landscape
40
Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector Key Players
40
Company Profile
41
Sri Lanka Telecom
41
Hutchison Lanka
46
Dialog Axiata
49
Demographic Forecast
54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
55
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
55
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sri Lanka 1990-2025)
57
Glossary
59
Table: Glossary Of Terms
59
Methodology
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Sri Lanka Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sri Lanka's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Sri Lanka Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sri Lanka.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sri Lanka to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sri Lankan telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Sri Lanka's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sri Lanka.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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