A more supportive inflationary environment and prudent fiscal and monetary policy will keep economic growth in Sudan stable and moderately paced over the coming quarters.
Facing rising political and economic pressures, Sudan's ruling National Congress Party will continue to engage in National Dialogue with its domestic foes and international mediators. That said, we expect talks to yield little, with an end to crippling economic sanctions or meaningful international debt relief both highly unlikely over the next 12 months.
In South Sudan, there growing evidence that the protracted nature of the civil conflict - which began in December 2013 - is leading to a hollowing out of state capacity and civil society and a breakdown of the formal economy.
Our negative outlook for the South Sudanese economy is underpinned by a volatile and uncertain political landscape. Formal and informal economic activity will continue to be heavily disrupted by persistent insecurity, spiralling inflation and currency instability.
Major Forecast Changes:
No major forecast changes
Political and security-related risk remains the most salient threat to our outlooks for both Sudan and South Sudan, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries.
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||2.9||3.0||3.7||4.3|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||60.3||67.1||78.4||84.4|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||41.9||25.7||12.5||12.0|
|Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop||5.98||5.75||6.50||6.75|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-2.3||-2.6||-4.5||-4.5|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||-7.4||-7.1||-9.2||-8.7|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||20.4||21.9||22.2||22.9|
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||31.6||7.0||6.3||6.7|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||-8.8||11.9||12.0||10.0|
|Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop||3.00||3.10||4.00||4.00|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||0.2||-6.2||-4.2||0.2|
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