Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Tight fiscal and monetary policy stance have brought a degree of stability to the Sudanese economy following the painful split from South Sudan. That said, we believe the economy will continue to feel the lasting effects of this painful adjustment for the foreseeable future as the country's hostile political and investment climate preclude a meaningful economic revival.

  • South Sudan's August peace deal continues to hold, and was most recently reaffirmed with the April 29 formation of a unity government. However, the political scene will remain highly unstable, owing to disagreements over the formation of new states, continued instances of violence and severe economic challenges, not least skyrocketing inflation.

  • Despite a tentative improvement on the political front, South Sudan's economic crisis continues to deepen. The devaluation of the South Sudanese pound in late 2015 will likely keep inflation in or close to triple figures for most of 2016, heaping further pain on the war-torn, import reliant economy.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • No major forecast changes

Key Risks:

  • Political and security-related risk remains the most salient threat to our outlooks for both Sudan and South Sudan, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries.

Forecast Tables:

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 79.1 91.6 95.4 105.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 25.7 12.5 12.0 12.0
Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop 5.75 6.45 6.75 7.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.2 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -6.0 -7.8 -7.7 -7.2
Macroeconomic Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 79.1 91.6 95.4 105.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 25.7 12.5 12.0 12.0
Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop 5.75 6.45 6.75 7.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.2 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -6.0 -7.8 -7.7 -7.2
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
8
Weak Operating Environment Will Keep Growth Subdued
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
South Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
10
Unity Government No Panacea For Economic Woes
10
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
12
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
12
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
12
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
12
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
13
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
15
The Sudanese Economy To 2025
15
Subdued Long-Term Growth Outlook
15
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
15
The South Sudanese Economy To 2025
16
A Potential Unrealised
16
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
16
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Sudan Domestic Politics
20
Despite Unity Government, Political Risks Will Remain High
20
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
24
Economic Openness
25
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
25
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
26
Availability of Labour
28
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
29
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANTS
30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Summer Of Risk
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Sudan, South Sudan with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Sudan, South Sudan with confidence.

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