Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • A more supportive inflationary environment and prudent fiscal and monetary policy will keep economic growth in Sudan stable and moderately paced over the coming quarters.

  • Facing rising political and economic pressures, Sudan's ruling National Congress Party will continue to engage in National Dialogue with its domestic foes and international mediators. That said, we expect talks to yield little, with an end to crippling economic sanctions or meaningful international debt relief both highly unlikely over the next 12 months.

  • In South Sudan, there growing evidence that the protracted nature of the civil conflict - which began in December 2013 - is leading to a hollowing out of state capacity and civil society and a breakdown of the formal economy.

  • Our negative outlook for the South Sudanese economy is underpinned by a volatile and uncertain political landscape. Formal and informal economic activity will continue to be heavily disrupted by persistent insecurity, spiralling inflation and currency instability.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • No major forecast changes

Key Risks:

  • Political and security-related risk remains the most salient threat to our outlooks for both Sudan and South Sudan, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries.

Forecast Tables:

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.9 3.0 3.7 4.3
Nominal GDP, USDbn 60.3 67.1 78.4 84.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 41.9 25.7 12.5 12.0
Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop 5.98 5.75 6.50 6.75
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.3 -2.6 -4.5 -4.5
Current account balance, % of GDP -7.4 -7.1 -9.2 -8.7
Macroeconomic Forecasts (South Sudan 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 20.4 21.9 22.2 22.9
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 31.6 7.0 6.3 6.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -8.8 11.9 12.0 10.0
Exchange rate SDG/USD, eop 3.00 3.10 4.00 4.00
Budget balance, % of GDP 0.2 -6.2 -4.2 0.2
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Squeezed On Numerous Fronts
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
8
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
9
South Sudan Economic Growth Outlook
10
Currency Devaluation To Deepen Economic Crisis
10
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
11
TABLE : GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
11
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
13
The Sudanese Economy To 2025
13
Subdued Long-Term Growth Outlook
13
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
13
The South Sudanese Economy To 2025
14
A Potential Unrealised
14
TABLE : LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
14
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
17
SWOT Analysis
17
BMI Political Risk Index
17
Sudan Domestic Politics
18
Reform Chances Slim As Regime Focuses On Survival
18
South Sudan Domestic Politics
19
Still Major Hurdles To Political Progress
19
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
21
SWOT Analysis
21
Operational Risk Index
21
Operational Risk
22
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
22
Trade Procedures And Governance
23
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
23
TABLE : BREAKDOWN OF DOCUMENTATION COSTS
23
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
24
Vulnerability To Crime
25
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
29
Global Macro Outlook
29
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
29
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
29
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
30
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
30
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
31
TABLE: SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
33
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
33

Assess your risk exposure in Sudan, South Sudan with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Sudan, South Sudan with confidence.

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