Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report

Published 07 May 2015

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Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report

According to data published by Renault, vehicle sales in the Sudanese auto market surged 25.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in February 2015, to 253 units. This brought sales for the first two months of 2015 to 474 units, an increase of 24.7% y-o-y. The strong start to the year has prompted us to upgrade our full-year sales growth forecast from 11.0% to 20.0%, which will see sales reach 3,480 units in 2015.

Vehicle sales still remain below their 2011 levels due to sharp declines in the market in 2012 and 2013. Over our 2016-2019 forecast period, we expect steady growth in sales at an annual average rate of 9.1%, which will see sales reach 4,920 units by 2019. However, given the low base at which sales are at now, the sector's story over the coming years will be one of recovery rather than expansion.

Some headwinds for the sector include a lack of security in the country due to armed conflict between the South Sudanese government and opposition forces led by former vice president Riek Machar. Furthermore, the devaluation of the Sudanese pound in September 2013 has added to pricing pressures by making imports more expensive and while there is some local vehicle assembly through Giad Automotive, this comes largely from imported kits. Added to this, the effects on conflict with the South mean that new car purchases are not a priority for consumers.

Another threat to the new vehicle sales segment is the used car market. The used car market, as in many other Sub-Saharan African countries, is the main source of vehicle stock. This is true to such a degree that legislation was introduced in 2010 to ban imports of second-hand cars in order to shore up sales by local dealers.

As such, although the size of the new vehicle market by 2019 will still be below 5,000 units, the total passenger car fleet will exceed 1.1mn units. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Japanese brands are among the most popular in both Sudan and South Sudan, with heavy-duty vehicles such as the Toyota Hilux...

Table of Contents

BMI View
7
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
8
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Sales
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2019)
14
Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Economic Analysis
15
Table: Economic Activity (Sudan 2010-2019)
18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
19
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
19
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Index
21
Competitive Landscape
23
Company Profile
25
Company Monitor
25
MEA A Good Starting Point
26
Key Markets Also Bring Challenges
27
Regional Overview
30
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Production Investment
30
Global Industry Overview
32
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
32
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
32
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
34
Asia Carries The BRIC States
35
Demographic Forecast
37
Sudan Demographic Forecast
37
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sudan 1990-2025)
38
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sudan 1990-2025)
38
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Sudan 1990-2025)
39
Table: Population By Age Group (Sudan 1990-2025)
39
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sudan 1990-2025)
40
South Sudan Demographic Forecast
42
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Sudan 1990-2025)
43
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Sudan 1990-2025)
43
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Sudan 1990-2025)
44
Table: Population By Age Group (South Sudan 1990-2025)
44
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Sudan 1990-2025)
45
Methodology
47
Industry Forecasts
47
Sector-Specific Methodology
48
Sources
48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
49
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
50

The Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Sudan & South Sudan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Sudan, South Sudan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc