BMI View: Progress on the formation of a unity government offers upside risk to oil production in South Sudan. However, we expect the pace of progress to remain slow, with no significant gains in output before 2017. The longer-term outlook for both Sudan and South Sudan is heavily bearish, due to a thin projects pipeline, lack of exploration and poor prospects for investment. The downstream sector is also weak, and we see limited room for growth given the high capital requirements, strained fiscal position of the respective governments and a lack of interest from foreign investors. Consumption growth is relatively strong, but from a low base. Growth prospects have also narrowed over recent quarters, due to subsidy reform in Sudan and a dollar shortage in South Sudan.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||116.1||115.5||114.9||113.8||112.6||110.4||108.2|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||119.1||126.2||127.5||128.8||129.4||130.1||130.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||96.4||100.3||103.3||106.4||109.8||113.4||117.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||155.2||152.1||158.2||197.7||217.4||228.3||232.9|
|Refined products consumption, 000b/d||40.4||41.2||36.3||36.5||38.1||39.8||41.6|
Latest Updates And Key Trends
Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.
Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.
Refined fuels production will fail to keep pace with the strong rise in consumption, triggering a mounting dependency on refined fuels imports in South Sudan and falling exports from Sudan. Refineries in Sudan will struggle to maintain competitiveness against their global peers, due to falling domestic crude production, limited economies of scale and a lack of appetite in new downstream investments.
Export revenues are at risk of sustained decline, both in line with falling domestic crude output and a sharp drop in global oil prices. Increased competition in Sudan and South Sudan's key Asian export markets also threatens further downward price pressures, over the longer term.
The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.