Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 May 2015

  • 124 pages
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$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Widespread insecurity and an uncertain political environment continue to weaken the production outlook in Sudan and South Sudan. Foreign appetite for investment in both countries has come under increased strain, and continued underinvestment in the sector threatens to push output into decline in the tail end of our 10-year forecast period. Repeated supply outages have severely undercut oil exports from South Sudan and this, alongside the sharp fall in global oil prices, will continue to erode revenues over the medium term.

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 118.3 124.2 139.1 153.0 168.2 169.9 166.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 103.5 119.1 126.2 127.5 128.8 129.4 130.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 94.5 122.9 129.0 135.5 140.9 146.5 150.9
Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2013 - 2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 135.0 155.3 178.5 223.2 279.0 306.9 322.2
Refined products consumption, 000b/d 40.0 40.4 41.2 44.4 46.9 49.5 52.2

The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

  • Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.

  • Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2019)
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2013 - 2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Sudan 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Sudan 2019-2024)
13
Table: Proved Oil Reserves (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
14
Table: Proved Oil Reserves (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
14
Table: Major Discoveries Sudan and South Sudan
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Sudan And South Sudan - Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Oil Production - Sudan
17
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2019-2024)
18
Oil Production - South Sudan
19
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
19
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
20
Refining
24
Refining - Sudan
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2019-2024)
24
Refining - South Sudan
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Refined Fuels Consumption - Sudan
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Sudan 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Sudan 2019-2024)
27
Refined Fuels Consumption - South Sudan
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption
29
Trade - Oil
30
Oil Trade - Sudan
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2013-2018)
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2019-2024)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2019-2024)
33
Oil Trade - South Sudan
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
37
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
41
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Underperformance Continues Among African Majors
42
Emergent Markets Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
43
Established Producers On The Downturn
44
An Underwhelming Downstream
44
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Market Overview
48
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview
48
Overview/State Role
48
Licensing And Regulation
48
Government Policy
49
Licensing Rounds
50
International Energy Relations
50
Table: Key Upstream Players: Asia Firmly in the Lead
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Service Stations
53
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Oil Terminals/Ports
54
Oil Pipelines
54
Table: Pipeline Infrastructure
54
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
ONGC Sudan
58
CNPC Sudan
61
Petronas Sudan
65
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
70
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
70
West Africa - Exploration Slowdown
70
Unconventionals: Window Of Opportunity Closing
72
East Africa: Resource Development Under Strain
74
High-Risk Continent
76
Downstream Blues
78
Global Industry Overview
80
Oil Price Outlook
80
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
80
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
81
Appendix
88
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
88
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
88
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
89
Africa - Regional Appendix
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
97
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
99
Sudan and South Sudan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
100
Sudan
100
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Sudan 2013-2018)
100
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Sudan 2019-2024)
100
South Sudan
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (South Sudan 2013-2018)
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
102
Sudan and South Sudan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
103
Sudan
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Sudan 2013-2018)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Sudan 2019-2024)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Sudan 2013-2018)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Sudan 2019-2024)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Sudan 2013-2018)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Sudan 2019-2024)
108
South Sudan
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
116
Glossary
117
Table: Glossary Of Terms
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Source
121
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
121
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
123
Table: Weighting
124

The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc