Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Progress on the formation of a unity government offers upside risk to oil production in South Sudan. However, we expect the pace of progress to remain slow, with no significant gains in output before 2017. The longer-term outlook for both Sudan and South Sudan is heavily bearish, due to a thin projects pipeline, lack of exploration and poor prospects for investment. The downstream sector is also weak, and we see limited room for growth given the high capital requirements, strained fiscal position of the respective governments and a lack of interest from foreign investors. Consumption growth is relatively strong, but from a low base. Growth prospects have also narrowed over recent quarters, due to subsidy reform in Sudan and a dollar shortage in South Sudan.

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 116.1 115.5 114.9 113.8 112.6 110.4 108.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 119.1 126.2 127.5 128.8 129.4 130.1 130.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 96.4 100.3 103.3 106.4 109.8 113.4 117.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00
Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 155.2 152.1 158.2 197.7 217.4 228.3 232.9
Refined products consumption, 000b/d 40.4 41.2 36.3 36.5 38.1 39.8 41.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Trends

  • Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.

  • Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.

  • Refined fuels production will fail to keep pace with the strong rise in consumption, triggering a mounting dependency on refined fuels imports in South Sudan and falling exports from Sudan. Refineries in Sudan will struggle to maintain competitiveness against their global peers, due to falling domestic crude production, limited economies of scale and a lack of appetite in new downstream investments.

  • Export revenues are at risk of sustained decline, both in line with falling domestic crude output and a sharp drop in global oil prices. Increased competition in Sudan and South Sudan's key Asian export markets also threatens further downward price pressures, over the longer term.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2020)
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Major Discoveries - Sudan And South Sudan
12
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Sudan - Upstream Projects
14
Table: South Sudan - Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Sudan
16
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2014-2019)
17
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2020-2025)
17
South Sudan
18
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2014-2019)
21
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2020-2025)
21
Refining
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Sudan
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2014-2019)
24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2020-2025)
24
South Sudan
25
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Sudan
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Sudan 2014-2019)
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Sudan 2020-2025)
27
South Sudan
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Sudan 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Sudan 2020-2025)
29
Trade - Oil
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Sudan - Oil Trade
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2014-2019)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2020-2025)
32
Sudan - Fuels Trade
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2014-2019)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2020-2025)
34
South Sudan - Oil Trade
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2014-2019)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2020-2025)
36
South Sudan - Fuels Trade
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2020-2025)
37
Industry Risk Reward Index
38
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
41
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
44
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Sudan And South Sudan - Risk/Reward Index
46
Market Overview
47
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview
47
Regulatory Overview
47
Licensing Regime
48
Fiscal Regime
48
Table: South Sudan PSC Main Fiscal Terms
48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
49
Oil Refineries
49
Table: Sudan Oil Refineries
49
Table: South Sudan Oil Refineries
49
Oil Storage Facilities
49
Table: Sudan & South Sudan Main Oil Storage Facilities
50
Oil Trade Facilities
50
Table: Sudan & South Sudan Main Oil Trade Facilities
50
Oil Pipelines
50
Table: Sudan & South Sudan Main Oil Pipelines
50
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
CNPC
54
Latest Updates
54
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Sudan & South Sudan
55
Table: Key Financial Data, CNYbn
55
ONGC Videsh
56
Latest Updates
56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Sudan & South Sudan
57
Table: Key Financial Data, INRmn
57
Petronas
58
Latest Updates
58
Table: Main Upstream Assets In Sudan & South Sudan
59
Table: Key Financial Data, MYRbn
59
Regional Overview
60
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
60
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
68
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Source
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
75
Table: Weighting
76

The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.