Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: A weak security environment and stuttering peace process will continue to depress crude production in South Sudan in 2016. In the longer term, the upside risks are substantial; however, chronic underinvestment, extensive damage to infrastructure and persistent instability will dampen any prospective recovery in output. The outlook on Sudan is also relatively bearish, due to the weak investment climate, uncertain political outlook and pervasive security threats. The downstream in both countries will remain poor, due to limited domestic capacity, dwindling domestic resources and a lack of appetite for wider foreign participation.

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 116.1 115.5 114.9 113.8 112.6 110.4 108.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 119.1 126.2 127.5 128.8 129.4 130.0 130.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 96.4 100.3 103.3 106.4 109.8 113.4 117.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00
Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 155.2 152.1 158.2 197.7 217.4 228.3 232.9
Refined products consumption, 000b/d 40.4 41.2 45.2 48.2 51.2 54.1 57.3
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Trends

  • Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.

  • Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.

  • Refined fuels production will fail to keep pace with the strong rise in consumption, triggering a mounting dependency on refined fuels imports in South Sudan and falling exports from Sudan. Refineries in Sudan will struggle to maintain competitiveness against their global peers, due to falling domestic crude production, limited economies of scale and a lack of appetite in new downstream investments.

  • Export revenues are at risk of sustained decline, both in line with falling domestic crude output and a sharp drop in global oil prices. Increased competition in Sudan and South Sudan's key Asian export markets also threatens further downward price pressures, over the longer term.

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2019)
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2013 - 2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Sudan 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Sudan 2019-2024)
13
Table: Proved Oil Reserves (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
14
Table: Proved Oil Reserves (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
14
Table: Major Discoveries - Sudan and South Sudan
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Sudan - Upstream Projects
17
Table: South Sudan - Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Oil Production - Sudan
19
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2013-2018)
19
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2019-2024)
19
Oil Production - South Sudan
21
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
21
Table: Oil Production (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
21
Refining
25
Refining - Sudan
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2019-2024)
25
Refining - South Sudan
27
Refined Fuels Consumption
28
Refined Fuels Consumption - Sudan
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Sudan 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Sudan 2019-2024)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption - South Sudan
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption
30
Trade - Oil
31
Oil Trade - Sudan
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2013-2018)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2019-2024)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2019-2024)
34
Oil Trade - South Sudan
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
40
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
43
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
46
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Sudan & South Sudan Risk/Reward Index
48
Market Overview
50
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview
50
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing And Regulation
50
Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Sudan & South Sudan Refineries
52
Oil Storage Facilities
52
Oil Terminals/Ports
53
Oil Pipelines
53
Table: Pipeline Infrastructure
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector
55
Table: Key Upstream Players
55
Table: Key Downstream Players
56
Company Profile
57
ONGC Sudan
57
CNPC Sudan
60
Petronas Sudan
64
Other Summaries
67
Regional Overview
69
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
69
Global Industry Overview
77
Global Energy Market Overview
77
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
77
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
81
Appendix
83
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
83
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
83
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
84
Africa - Regional Appendix
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
93
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
94
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
95
Sudan and South Sudan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
96
Sudan
96
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Sudan 2013-2018)
96
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Sudan 2019-2024)
96
South Sudan
97
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (South Sudan 2013-2018)
97
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
98
Sudan and South Sudan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
99
Sudan
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Sudan 2013-2018)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Sudan 2019-2024)
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Sudan 2013-2018)
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Sudan 2019-2024)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Sudan 2013-2018)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Sudan 2019-2024)
104
South Sudan
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Sudan 2013 - 2018)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Sudan 2019 - 2024)
112
Glossary
113
Table: Glossary Of Terms
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Source
117
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
117
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
119
Table: Weighting
120

The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.