Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

Published 23 February 2015

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The outlook on Sudan and South Sudan's upstream sector has grown increasingly bearish. An unstable political environment and chronic weakness in both countries' security landscapes will drive repeated supply outages and chronic underinvestment. Exports will also come under increased strained, as a sustained fall in global oil prices, rising refined fuels import dependence and longer-term crude production decline all act to undercut revenues.

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 118.3 124.2 139.1 153.0 168.2 169.9 166.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 103.5 119.1 126.2 127.5 128.8 129.4 130.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 96.8 125.9 132.2 138.8 144.3 150.1 154.6
Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2013 - 2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 135.0 155.3 178.5 223.2 279.0 306.9 322.2
Refined products consumption, 000b/d 40.0 40.4 41.2 44.4 46.9 49.5 52.2

The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

  • Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.

  • Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to infrastructure and trailing investment levels.

  • Refined fuels...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Sudan 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Sudan 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Sudan And South Sudan - Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2012-2017)
16
Table: Oil Production (Sudan 2018-2023)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Sudan 2012-2017)
24
Table: Gas Production (Sudan 2018-2023)
24
Refining
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2012-2017)
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Sudan 2018-2023)
25
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Sudan 2012-2017)
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Sudan 2018-2023)
27
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2012-2017)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Sudan 2018-2023)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2012-2017)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Sudan 2018-2023)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Sudan 2012-2017)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Sudan 2018-2023)
32
Industry Risk Reward Index
33
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Index
33
Above-ground Risks Dampen The Outlook
35
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
35
Emergent Producers Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
36
Mature Producers Continue To Underperform Their Potential
37
An Underwhelming Downstream
38
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
38
Sudan And South Sudan - Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream Index - Overview
40
Downstream Index - Overview
40
Market Overview
41
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview
41
Table: Sudan & South Sudan Upstream Projects
41
Overview/State Role
41
Licensing And Regulation
42
Government Policy
42
Licensing Rounds
43
International Energy Relations
43
Table: Key Upstream Players: Asia Firmly in the Lead
45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Service Stations
46
Oil Storage Facilities
47
Oil Terminals/Ports
47
Oil Pipelines
47
Table: Pipeline Infrastructure
47
Competitive Landscape
49
Competitive Landscape Summary
49
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector
50
Table: Key Upstream Players
50
Table: Key Downstream Players
50
Company Profile
51
ONGC Sudan
51
CNPC Sudan
54
Petronas Sudan
57
Other Summaries
60
Regional Overview
62
Africa Overview
62
Lower Risk Appetite Slowing Exploration Drive
62
Unconventionals: New Frontier
65
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
66
High-Risk Continent
68
Downstream Blues
70
Global Industry Overview
73
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
75
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
76
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL)
77
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl)
77
Appendix
79
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
79
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017 (Global 2012-2017)
79
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023 (Global 2018-2023)
80
Africa - Regional Appendix
82
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
88
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
89
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
90
Sudan and South Sudan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
91
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Sudan 2012-2017)
91
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Sudan 2018-2023)
91
Sudan and South Sudan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Sudan 2012-2017)
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Sudan 2018-2023)
93
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Sudan 2012-2017)
94
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Sudan 2018-2023)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Sudan 2012-2017)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Sudan 2018-2023)
97
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Terms
99
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Source
103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
103
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
105
Table: Weighting
106

The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc