Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 03 June 2015

  • 66 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Due to the lack of production capacity among domestic companies, the majority of pharmaceuticals in Sudan and South Sudan will remain sourced from abroad. Over the long - term, domestic manufacturers will increase their market share, with the government placing an increasing emphasis on achieving self-sufficiency in terms of pharmaceutical production.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: SDG2.35bn (USD402mn) in 2014 to SDG2.65bn (USD433mn) in 2015; +12.9% in local currency terms and +7.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q215.

  • Healthcare: SDG24.26bn (USD4.15bn) in 2014 to SDG27.31bn (USD4.46bn) in 2015; +12.6% in local currency terms and +7.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q215.

Risk/Reward Index

Sudan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q315 is 28.7. This is significantly lower than the MEA regional average score of 41.7, and places it 30th of 31 countries in the region. We note that the country scores below average for all indicators under industry and country risks and rewards. This is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Saudi drugmaker Tabuk Pharmaceutical announced its plans to use its manufacturing facility in Sudan to export its products to several African countries including Chad, Ethiopia and Uganda in May 2015.

  • It was announced in May 2015 that the Ministry of Health in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum will implement the prohibition of medical treatment at hospitals and primary health centres for patients without health insurance cards by the end of 2015.

  • In May 2015, the Ministry of Health renewed its commitment to reach all children in conflict-affected areas to vaccinate them against polio.

BMI Economic View

Easing inflationary pressures and robust agricultural production will see economic growth in Sudan pick up modestly over the coming quarters, with real GDP set to expand by 3.5% in 2015 and...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2011-2019)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2011-2019)
22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2011-2019)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2011-2019)
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Economic Activity (Sudan 2010-2019)
27
Industry Risk Reward Indicies
28
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index
28
Sudan Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Regulatory Development
44
Regulatory Regime
44
Competitive Landscape
47
Demographic Forecast
49
Sudan Demographic Forecast
49
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sudan 1990-2025)
50
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sudan 1990-2025)
50
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Sudan 1990-2025)
51
Table: Population By Age Group (Sudan 1990-2025)
51
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sudan 1990-2025)
52
South Sudan Demographic Forecast
54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Sudan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Sudan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Sudan 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group (South Sudan 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Sudan 1990-2025)
57
Glossary
59
Methodology
61
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
61
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
61
Notes On Methodology
62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Index Overview
64
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
64
Indicator Weightings
65

The Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudan, South Sudan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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