BMI View: Over the coming years, the Sudanese government will look to address the recurring issues of medicine shortages and a lack of funding through improvements to the domestic pharmaceutical industry. In turn, this will reduce its reliance on imported medicines ; however , the basic capabilities of local drugmakers will make it difficult to achieve self -sufficiency in the near future, and the supply of more sophisticated medicines will remain satisfied mostly by imports. Growth within Sudan's healthcare market will depend upon the government's financial commitment to health infrastructure projects; however , the unequal distribution of healthcare access remains a longstanding issue. Furthermore, political instability will remain a barrier to any significant investment in the sector .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SDG3.00bn (USD491mn)in 2015 to SDG3.36bn (USD507mn) in 2016; +11.8% in local currency terms and +3.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 116 .
Healthcare: SDG26.89bn (USD4.39bn) in 2015 to SDG30.09bn (USD4.54bn) in 2016; +11.9% in local currency terms and +3.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 116 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: UN Comtrade, National Sources, World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.451||0.491||0.507||0.546||0.598||0.666||0.741|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.67||0.61||0.59||0.57||0.55||0.53||0.51|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||11.2||11.2||11.2||11.2||11.2||11.3||11.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.028||4.391||4.543||4.877||5.318||5.887||6.502|
In our Q216 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Sudan's score of 31.4 out of 100 is higher than its score of 29.2 in the previous quarter, and maintains its position in 24th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa region. Regionally, however, the country scores below average for all indicators under both industry and country risks & rewards, and this is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment.
Sudan's 2016 budget allocates just 1% towards healthcare, of the total SDG17bn (USD2.8bn) budget. A disproportionately large 70% will be allocated towards security measures.
In March 2016, the German National Committee (NATCOM) and government of Germany announced the donation of EUR5mn to support UNICEF health activities in South Sudan.
In February 2016, the Central Bank of Sudan announced the allocation of SDG61mn (USD10mn) to develop the domestic pharmaceutical industry and remediate the chronic shortage of medicines in the country.
BMI Economic View
A tight fiscal and monetary policy stance have brought a degree of stability to the Sudanese economy following the upheaval associated with the split from South Sudan. That said, we believe the economy will continue to feel the lasting effects of this painful adjustment for the foreseeable future as the country's hostile political and investment climate preclude a meaningful revival.
Over the next two to three years, economic growth in South Sudan will be erratic, with upswings in fighting causing frequent crises, which will be followed by rapid economic recoveries. Over the coming years, growth will slow, owing to a combination of low consumer spending and the gradual depletion of existing oil wells. Growth will average around 6% over the next five years.
BMI Political View
A feared security apparatus, financial backing from Gulf states, namely Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and a piecemeal commitment to political reform negotiations will allow Sudan's ruling National Congress Party to maintain the status quo over the next two to three years. This maintaining of the status quo will, however, increasingly come at the expense of the country's economic and political well-being.
The peace deal signed by South Sudan's main warring factions in August 2015 continues to hold. Even so, with numerous key issues still unresolved, the task of turning this agreement into a lasting political settlement is one that remains fraught with risk and uncertainty. Events in recent weeks have reinforced our view that although the peace deal is likely to hold over the near term, major question marks over the commitment of both sides to the process make meaningful progress towards political reconciliation a slim prospect as things stand. Meanwhile the decision to float the currency in December will deepen the country's economic pain over the near term.
The Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudan, South Sudan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.