Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 09 March 2015

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$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Access to healthcare in Sudan and South Sudan is poor and drug shortages are commonplace. The state is also heavily reliant on importing its medicines, though over the long-term we believe this reliance will decrease as the government is committed to developing domestic pharmaceutical production.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: SDG2.06bn (USD353mn) in 2014 to SDG2.37bn (USD387mn) in 2015; +15.0% in local currency terms and +9.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q115 .

  • Healthcare: SDG20.31bn (USD3.48bn) in 2014 to SDG22.85bn (USD3.73bn) in 2015; +12.5% in local currency terms and +7.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q115 .

Risk/Reward Index

Sudan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q215 is 29.9. This is significantly lower than the MEA regional average score of 42.5, and places it 28th of 31 countries in the region. We note that the country scores below average for all indicators under industry and country risks and rewards. This is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment.

Key Trends And Developments

January 2015

  • It was announced that humanitarian organisation Medecins Sans Frontieres had suspended its activities in Sudan as it was no longer able to reach the communities in the most need.

December 2014

  • The National Council for Drugs and Poisons announced an increase in the number of registered drugs to 5,000.

  • The European Union announced it will contribute EUR11mn (USD12.4mn) to help improve South Sudan's healthcare sector.

BMI Economic View

Economic growth in Sudan will accelerate in 2015 aided by falling inflation, robust agricultural production and rising gold exports. That said, conditions remain challenging and risks are weighted firmly to the downside.

BMI Political View

Sudan's relations with its southern neighbour remain strained, but the intervention of China, which is deploying a 700-strong infantry battalion to war-torn South...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
13
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2010-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Economic Analysis - Sudan
23
Table: Economic Activity (Sudan 2009-2018)
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Sudan Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Industry Trends And Developments
40
Regulatory Development
43
Regulatory Regime
43
Demographic Forecast
45
Demographic Forecast - Sudan
45
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
46
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
47
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
48
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
48
Demographic Forecast - South Sudan
49
Table: South Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
50
Table: South Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
51
Table: South Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
52
Table: South Sudan's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020
52
Glossary
53
Methodology
55
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
55
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
55
Notes On Methodology
56
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
57
Ratings Overview
58
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
58
Indicator Weightings
59

The Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudan, South Sudan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc