BMI View: Medicine shortages and a lack of funding are two of the greatest challenges facing Sudan and South Sudan's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. T he Sudanese government will step up its efforts to reduce these recurring issues through improvements to the domestic pharmaceutical industry. That said, the relatively weak production capabilities of local drugmakers will make it difficult to achieve self-sufficiency in the near future. As such, imports will continue to satisfy the majority of the population's pharmaceutical needs over the long-term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SDG3.00bn (USD503mn) in 2015 to SDG3.36bn (USD509mn) in 2016; +11.8% in local currency terms and +1.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 2 16 .
Healthcare: SDG32.70bn (USD5.48bn) in 2015 to SDG36.38bn (USD5.51bn) in 2016; +11.2% in local currency terms and +0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 2 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: UN Comtrade, National Sources, World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.450||0.500||0.510||0.550||0.600||0.670||0.750|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.67||0.61||0.59||0.57||0.55||0.54||0.53|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||9.2||9.2||9.2||9.3||9.4||9.5||9.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.940||5.480||5.510||5.870||6.370||7.030||7.730|
In our Q316 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index, Sudan maintains its score of 31.4 out of 100 and asserts its position in 24th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa region. Regionally, however, the country scores below average for all indicators under both industry and country risks, and rewards, which is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment.
In May 2016, Sudan's Federal Ministry, in collaboration with the WHO and healthcare experts from the Gulf Cooperation Council, launched a national guide for combating infectious diseases.
In May 2016, at the WHO General Assembly in Sudan, the Sudanese Health Ministry announced that SDG548mn (USD90mn) has been allocated towards the local pharmaceutical industry.
In April 2016, Medecins Sans Frontieres issued an open letter to international donors following a nationwide lack of essential medicines in South Sudan.
BMI Economic View
Our view for Sudan's economic outlook has remained largely unchanged from the previous quarter. As such, a tight fiscal and monetary policy stance have brought a degree of stability to the Sudanese economy following the upheaval associated with the split from South Sudan. That said, we believe the economy will continue to feel the lasting effects of this painful adjustment for the foreseeable future as the country's hostile political and investment climate preclude a meaningful revival.
South Sudan's economic crisis continues to deepen. The devaluation of the South Sudanese pound in late 2015 will likely keep inflation in or close to triple figures for most of 2016, heaping further pain on the war-torn, import reliant economy. As a result, economic growth will be erratic over the forthcoming years.
BMI Political View
The Sudanese government's control of an entrenched and widely feared security apparatus will continue to stave off any direct threat to the regime or quell any possible uprising over the short-to-medium term. Its grip on power and ability to exert control has been helped by a recent strengthening of ties with Saudi Arabia and Qatar. This maintaining of the status quo will, however, increasingly come at the expense of the country's economic and long-term political well-stability.
South Sudan's near-term political outlook has improved slightly, thanks to the formation on April 29 of a new unity government consisting of President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar. However, the political scene will remain highly unstable, owing to disagreements over the formation of new states, skyrocketing inflation, and Machar's continued presidential ambitions.
The Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudan, South Sudan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.