BMI View: Economic and political challenges will continue to undermine growth within Sudan and South Sudan ' s pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. As such, political instability will remain a barrier to any significant investment in the sector, whilst disagreements about oil revenue sharing will affect both governments' abilities to fund new healthcare infrastructure projects. The governments ' plans to improve domestic pharmaceutical manufacturer capabilities will attempt to reduce ongoing medicine shortages, however we do not expect self-sufficiency to be achieved over the short- to- medium term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SDG3.00bn (USD500mn) in 2015 to SDG3.30bn (USD500mn) in 2016; +10.0% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 3 16 .
Healthcare: SDG32.73bn (USD5.48bn) in 2015 to SDG36.43bn (USD5.52bn) in 2016; +11.3% in local currency terms and +0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 3 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: UN Comtrade, National Sources, World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.450||0.500||0.500||0.530||0.560||0.620||0.670|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.57||0.58||0.53||0.51||0.48||0.45||0.44|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||9.1||9.2||9.1||9.0||8.8||8.7||8.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.940||5.480||5.520||5.880||6.390||7.040||7.740|
In our Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index, Sudan maintains its score of 31.4 out of 100 and asserts its position in 24th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa region. Regionally, however, the country scores below average for all indicators under both industry and country risks and rewards, which is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment. Sanctions will present long-term headwinds to economic growth, holding back investment and direct investment opportunities for western multinational drugmakers.
In August 2016, the State Minister at the Ministry of Industry of Sudan, Dr Abdu Daoud, announced the holding of the Afro-Arab Forum for Pharmaceutical Industries and Medical Appliances during October 2016.
In August 2016, the WHO expanded its disease surveillance across South Sudan, following concerns over outbreaks of infectious diseases amidst widespread conflict.
In July 2016, Medecins Sans Frontieres reported another critical shortage of life-saving medicines in South Sudan.
BMI Economic View
A degree of stability has been restored to the Sudanese economy following the 2011 secession of South Sudan. However, the after-effects of the loss of around three-quarters of its oil production will linger over the course of our 10 year time horizon. This will only be exacerbated by Western sanctions and a sizeable debt burden (much of which is in arrears), undermining capital inflows into the country and the development of new industries in Sudan. We forecast that the economy will expand by an average of around 3.2% between 2016 and 2025, holding flat from the 3.2% average annual economic expansion seen over the last decade.
Economic conditions in South Sudan will be challenging in 2016 and 2017 as falling oil production hits exports hard and hyperinflation suppresses consumer purchasing power. The South Sudanese economy has significant potential due to its huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land and proposed integration with East African nations. However, it faces serious challenges in order to fulfil this potential, including security concerns with its neighbour to the north and among rival ethnic groups, a gaping infrastructure deficit and a lack of human or physical capital.
BMI Political View
Political instability and sanction will undermine Sudan's long-term economic prospects. Sudan's recently-held referendum on whether Darfur should remain split into five states or else become an autonomous region will do little to placate opposition forces, undermining prospects for peace in the country. This will mean that attacks in the Darfur region will likely escalate and that western sanctions on Sudan will not be lifted, weighing on the country's economic prospects.
South Sudan will remain vulnerable to significant political unrest over the coming months, after a recent outburst of violence in the capital Juba tipped the country perilously close to returning to civil war. The political situation will remain highly volatile. In the worst-case scenario, there is potential for the situation to deteriorate further, returning the country to outright civil war.
The Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudan, South Sudan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.