Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

Published 07 April 2015

  • 60 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

BMI View: The end of the long period of warfare provides an opportunity for investors to exploit the hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a generation capacity in Sudan and South Sudan. However , the commercial environment is hostile and the political environment remains highly unstable.

The outlook for Sudan's power sector is moderate. The end of the long period of warfare provides a window of opportunity for the country to exploit its ample sunshine and large hydrocarbons base to develop a domestic generation capacity. In this context, power generation in 2015 will increase by a respectable 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 7.5TWh and consumption will grow 4.1% y-o-y, to 5.9TWh. However, the commercial environment is hostile and continues to be dominated by the state-owned National Electricity Corporation, limiting the opportunity for investment. Losses from the system will also be huge, at 21.6% of total output.

South Sudan similarly provides opportunities for investors in its embryonic power sector, given its abundant oil reserves and the commitment of government and international donors to develop the energy sector. However, the country remains a dangerous place in which to do business due to political instability and the paucity of any commercial and physical infrastructure. While the returns on investment are potentially high, there is also a serious risk of losses.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation in 2015 is forecast to increase by 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), to reach 7.5TWh.

  • Power consumption in 2015 is forecast to increase by 4.1% y-o-y, to reach 5.9TWh.

  • Transmission & distribution losses in 2015 will remain high at 21.6% of total output, although losses will decline slightly over time.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The Sudanese government is putting pressure on South Sudan to settle arrears for unpaid electricity arrears dating back to independence in 2011. However, the government pledged not to cut off supplies.

  • The Sudanese...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Key Trends And Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Sudan Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sudan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sudan 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Sudan And South Sudan Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
15
Table: Generating Capacity in South Sudan
21
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
22
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2017)
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2017)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2018-2023)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
32
Sudan And South Sudan Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
East Africa Power Projects Database
41
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
41
Competitive Landscape
46
Regional Overview
51
MEA Power Regional Overview
51
Glossary
57
Table: Glossary Of Terms
57
Methodology
58
Methodology And Sources
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
61
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Sudan, South Sudan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc