Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

Published 26 June 2015

  • 71 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Sudan & South Sudan Power Report

BMI View: Sudan and South Sudan offer considerable long - term power production potential. South Sudan is home to large oil resources and hydropower is exploitable throughout the region. Non-hydropower renewables such as solar and wind power could also substantially increase capacity. Electricity infrastructure is, however, underdeveloped in Sudan and practically non-existent in South Sudan and investors remain deterred by the unstable political and security environment, a scenario we do not expect to improve over the short term.

Overall we do expect to see a moderate increase in total generation throughout the forecast period, with generation expected to increase from 7.5TWh in 2015 to 11.4Twh in 2024. This growth is largely dependent on several hydropower projects, with few other developments in the pipeline. Although Sudan and South Sudan offer large renewables potential, benefiting from near year-round sunshine for solar power and capacity for onshore and offshore wind farms, investors are extremely hesitant to commit. In Sudan the power sector is dominated by the state owned National Electricity Corporation and corruption is an ongoing issue. In South Sudan the security environment is volatile and there is little supporting infrastructure in place. Without a substantial improvement in the investment environment we do not see any scope for improved growth rates and expect power shortages to a common occurrence.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Sudan continues to experience power outages, with blackouts attributed to fuel shortages at electrical generation stations, which account for over 40% of generation in the country. The Sudanese Electricity Distribution Company (SEDC) reportedly plans to add additional stations and increase capacity of existing stations in order to improve supplies.

  • South Sudan's oil field remain vulnerable: early June 2015, rebel forces claim to have seized control of oilfields in the Unity State - the group, Sudan People's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Key Trends And Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Sudan Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sudan 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sudan 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Sudan And South Sudan Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2018)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2019-2024)
15
Table: Generating Capacity in South Sudan
18
Electricity Consumption
19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2018)
19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2019-2024)
19
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2018)
20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sudan 2019-2024)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index
23
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
28
Sudan And South Sudan Power Risk/Reward Index
30
Rewards
30
Risks
30
Market Overview
32
East Africa Power Projects Database
32
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Competitive Landscape
43
Regional Overview
48
MEA Power Regional Overview
48
Glossary
53
Table: Glossary Of Terms
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Sources
57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
59

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Sudan, South Sudan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc