BMI View: The Sudanese power sector will remain vulnerable to both droughts and funding cuts. A focus on investing in hydropower generation, coupled with the risk of a cut in Saudi funding - after recent budget cuts - means that power generation growth in Sudan will remain subdued. A lack of investment into transmission infrastructure will dampen any potential increases in electrification rates.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||10.005||10.547||11.127||11.137||11.148||11.171||11.198|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||8.0||8.4||8.8||9.2||9.7||10.1||10.6|
|Capacity, Net, MW||4,763.8||5,098.8||5,489.1||5,490.0||5,524.0||5,570.2||5,619.9|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The Saudi government's decision to make drastic cuts to its budget - due to the lower oil-price environment - will provide a risk to our outlook for Sudanese hydropower projects that are reliant on Saudi funding.
Egypt has resigned from the East African Power Pool due to its concerns surrounding further hydropower plant construction on the Nile by both Sudan and Ethiopia. This is unlikely to affect the progress of hydropower projects in Sudan, as all the other countries in the EAPP have signed the treaty with Egypt for equitable use of the Nile.
Construction of the 1,000-megawatt Red Sea thermal power plant is currently likely to be postponed due to the Saudi government cutting their budget. This is due to the Red Sea thermal power plant being reliant on Saudi funding.
Our forecasts for Sudanese transmission and distribution losses remain virtually unchanged since last quarter. We forecast that Sudan will continue to lose over a fifth of their total electricity generation through transmission losses throughout our 10-year forecast period.
The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Sudan & South Sudan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Sudan, South Sudan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).