Sweden Country Risk Report

Published 16 December 2014 | Quarterly

  • 47 pages
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$1,195.00
Sweden Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Sweden's status as an open trade-oriented economy means that its growth prospects will depend heavily upon a continued recovery in the rest of Europe.

  • The  outlook for business investment and exports will improve, but will be restrained alongside a poor recovery in the eurozone economy.

  • The coalition government led by the Social Democrats that was elected in September 2014 is in a precarious position due to its minority status in parliament. We expect a shift in government policy toward greater state interventionism, including tax hikes and a rise in government spending.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have lowered our end-year repo rate forecasts to 0.00% in both 2014 and 2015, and to 0.75% in 2016 (from 0.25%, 0.50%, and 1.25%, respectively).

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Downside Growth Risks From Europe: A relapse in the European economic recovery would leave Sweden's open economy vulnerable to external demand shocks.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Sweden 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Nominal GDP, USDbn 572.1 545.3 541.0 554.9
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.0
Exchange rate SEK/USD, eop 7.20 7.17 7.42 7.33
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.2 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4
Current account balance, % of GDP 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.4
f=BMI Forecast. Source: Statistics Sweden/BMI

Click here to explore data

Table of Contents

Executive Summary - Senegal
11
Core Views
11
Key Risk To Outlook
11
Chapter 1
13
SWOT Analysis
13
Domestic Politics
14
President Sall's Corruption Fight Will Ensure Foreign Investment
14
Senegalese President Macky Sall is making officials declare their assets, in the latest move by the reforming president to combat
Senegalese President Macky Sall is making officials declare their assets, in the latest move by the reforming president to combat
corruption
Perceptions of corruption are improving in the country, and this will help ensure a continued inflow of essential foreign
investment
Long-Term Political Outlook
15
Bastion Of Regional Stability To Flourish Politically
15
Senegal will continue to develop politically over the next decade, cementing its reputation as one of the most stable democracies in
Senegal will continue to develop politically over the next decade, cementing its reputation as one of the most stable democracies in
Africa
There are challenges to this stability, not least from poverty and unemployment, but we believe that accelerating economic
development will help Senegal overcome these
Chapter 1
17
SWOT Analysis
17
Economic Activity
18
Private Consumption And Investment Will Drive Real GDP Growth
18
Senegal will enjoy real GDP growth of 4
Private consumption, infrastructure
investment and new industries will drive this
TABLE: Economic Acti vit y
18
Chapter 1
21
The Senegalese Economy To 2024
21
Growth To Outpace Previous Decade
21
Senegal will enjoy strong real GDP growth over the next decade, averaging 4
8% recorded over
the previous 10 years
TABLE: Long-Term Mac roec onomic Forecasts
21
Executive Summary - The Gambia
25
Core Views
25
Key Risks To Outlook
25
Chapter 2
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Domestic Politics
28
Political Clampdown In Wake Of Failed Coup
28
President Jammeh will use a failed coup in The Gambia to secure his position in the short term
However, with the economy ailing
opposition to the autocratic ruler will become more vocal
Long-Term Political Outlook
29
President Jammeh To Shape Next Decade
29
The Gambia's political landscape will continue to be shaped by President Yahya Jammeh over the next decade, as political and press
The Gambia's political landscape will continue to be shaped by President Yahya Jammeh over the next decade, as political and press
freedoms will continue to be reduced
Chapter 2
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Economic Activity
32
Ebola Crisis Will Weigh On Macroeconomic Stability
32
The Gambian economy is looking increasingly fragile as the effects of the Ebola crisis continue to weigh on activity
Macroeconomic
stability is being challenged, just as political developments make international cooperation increasingly unlikely
Chapter 2
35
Robust Growth Outlook Susceptible To External Shocks
35
Real GDP growth in Gambia will be robust over the coming 10 years, hovering around 5
This will be driven by
agriculture and tourism, though growth will be constrained by poor infrastructure
As a small, open economy, the country is also
susceptible to external shocks, whether from weather events or global economic headwinds
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions
39
Global Outlook
39
New Era For Oil
39
Table : Global Assumptions
39
Table : Developed States , Real GDP GrowtH, %
40
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
41

The Sweden Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sweden. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Sweden's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Sweden's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Sweden's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sweden, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Sweden Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Sweden' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sweden through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Sweden Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Sweden and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Sweden, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Sweden over the next 5-years?

BMI's Sweden country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Sweden Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Sweden.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Sweden's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Sweden’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Sweden's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Sweden?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Sweden against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Sweden will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Sweden's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express