Sweden Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Sweden Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Sweden will remain a growth outperformer among developed states, with domestic demand remaining strong in 2016-17.

  • The surge in migrant inflows in 2015-16 will lead to higher economic growth over the medium term, but will present challenges to the fiscal accounts, the labour market, and domestic political stability.

  • Interest rates will remain low through 2017 as the central bank (Riksbank) will maintain a negative policy rate and disinflationary conditions will persist. However, there is an increasing chance of a policy reversal in 2016, as extraordinarily easy monetary measures are inappropriate given strong economic growth and rising private sector debt.

Major Forecast Changes

  • Due in large part to the surge in immigration, we have raised our real GDP growth forecasts to 3.0% for 2015 (from 2.6%) and 2.9% for 2016 (from 2.7%), and we now see growth of 2.8% on average between 2017 and 2020 versus 2.4% previously.

  • We see a major increase in the general government budget deficit in the near-term, due in large part to spending on immigration. We now forecast deficits of 1.3% of GDP in 2016, 1.4% in 2017, and 1.7% in 2018, compared our previous projection of shortfalls of 0.9% of GDP or less between 2016-18.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Downside Growth Risks From Europe: A relapse in the European economic recovery would leave Sweden's open economy vulnerable to external demand shocks.

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Immigration Policy Impasse A Threat To Stability
8
table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Stability Assured Over Long Term
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth To Pick Up Modestly In 2016
14
table: GDP By Expenditure
14
Monetary Policy
16
Deflationary Pressures To Persist
16
table: Monetary Policy
17
Balance Of Payments
18
Financial Sector Debt Presents Key Risk
18
table: Current Account
19
Banking Sector
20
Soft Landing Ahead, But Risks Rising
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Swedish Economy To 2024
23
Well-Positioned For The Long Term
23
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: Developed States - Labour Market Risk
26
TABLE: Developed States - Logistics Risk
29
TABLE: Developed States - Crime And Security Risk
32
TABLE: Developed States - Trade And Investment Risk
34
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
37
table: Phar maceutical Sales, Hist orical Data And Forecasts
38
table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends , Historical Data And Forecasts
38
Other Key Sectors
41
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
41
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
41
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
42
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Macro Outlook
43
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
43
Table: Global Assumptions
43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growt H, %
44
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
44
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
45

The Sweden Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sweden. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Sweden's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Sweden's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Sweden's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sweden, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Sweden Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Sweden' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sweden through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Sweden Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Sweden and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Sweden, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Sweden over the next 5-years?

BMI's Sweden country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Sweden Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Sweden.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Sweden's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Sweden’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Sweden's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Sweden?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Sweden against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Sweden will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Sweden's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.