Sweden Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Sweden Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Sweden will remain a growth outperformer among developed states, but the economy is set to cool significantly in 2017-18.

  • The surge in migrant inflows in 2015-16 will lead to higher economic growth over the medium term, but will present challenges to the fiscal accounts, the labour market, and domestic political stability.

  • Interest rates will remain low through 2018 as the central bank (Riksbank) will maintain a negative policy rate and disinflationary conditions will persist. The bank's quantitative easing cycle will be extended.

Major Forecast Changes

  • Our real GDP growth forecasts for 2017-18 are now an average 2.5%, compared with 2.8% previously.

  • We now expect the next Riksbank rate hike to occur in 2018, rather than 2017 in our previous set of projections.

Key Risks

  • Sudden Reversal Of Easy Monetary Policy: A sudden, unexpected increase in interest rates could cause a painful adjustment for private sector borrowers and generate instability in the financial sector.

  • Downside Growth Risks From Europe: A relapse in the European economic recovery would leave Sweden's open economy vulnerable to external demand shocks. The UK's vote to leave the EU presents longer-term risks to political stability.

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Four Scenarios To Derail Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Monetary Policy
11
Rate Cuts Over As Domestic Inflation To Pick Up
11
Monetary Policy Framework
13
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
14
Fiscal Deficits To Return As Spending Accelerates
14
Structural Fiscal Position
15
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
16
External Trade And Investment Outlook
17
Safe Haven Deterrence Could Have Negative Consequences
17
Outlook On External Position
18
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND GOODS EXPORTS (2014)
19
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT SOURCES AND GOODS IMPORTS (2014)
19
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
20
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Swedish Economy To 2025
21
Well-Positioned For The Long Term
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Brexit Implications: 'Swexit' Would Be A Rising Risk
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Strong Institutions Underpin Stability
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK
30
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK
34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
39
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Summer Of Risk
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in Sweden with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Sweden with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report