Sweden Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Sweden Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Sweden Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Sweden will remain a growth outperformer among developed states, with domestic demand remaining strong in 2016-17.

  • The surge in migrant inflows in 2015-16 will lead to higher economic growth over the medium term, but will present challenges to the fiscal accounts, the labour market, and domestic political stability.

  • Interest rates will remain low through 2017 as the central bank (Riksbank) will maintain a negative policy rate and disinflationary conditions will persist. However, there is an increasing chance of a policy reversal in 2016, as extraordinarily easy monetary measures are inappropriate given strong economic growth, incipient inflation, and rising private sector debt.

Major Forecast Changes

  • With higher-than-expected real GDP growth in 2015 of 4.1%, and leading indicators looking strong, we have raised our 2016 forecast to 3.6% from 2.9%.

  • Due to strong economic growth and accelerated tax payments by businesses seeking to avoid negative deposit rates, we have seen fit to revise our overall budget deficit forecast for 2016 to -0.9% of GDP from -1.3% previously, following an estimated balance of -1.1% for 2015.

Key Risks

  • Sudden Reversal Of Easy Monetary Policy: A sudden, unexpected increase in interest rates could cause a painful adjustment for private sector borrowers and generate instability in the financial sector.

  • Downside Growth Risks From Europe: A relapse in the European economic recovery would leave Sweden's open economy vulnerable to external demand shocks.

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Sweet Spot Could Turn Sour Beyond 2016
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Monetary Policy
12
Riksbank Risks Falling Behing The Curve
12
Monetary Policy Framework
14
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
15
Deficit To Widen Beyond 2016
15
Structural Fiscal Position
17
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
17
Outlook On External Position
18
Financial Sector Debt Presents Key Risks
18
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND GOODS EXPORTS
19
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT SOURCES AND GOODS IMPORTS
19
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
20
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Swedish Economy To 2025
23
Well-Positioned For The Long Term
23
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
23
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Political Risk Index
25
Domestic Politics
26
Sweden Democrats' Popularity May Have Peaked
26
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
26
Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Strong Institutions Underpin Stability
27
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk Index
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK
32
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK
36
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
38
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
41
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Macro Outlook
43
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
43
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
44
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
44
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
45
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
47

Assess your risk exposure in Sweden with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Sweden with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report