BMI View: C ost containment will remain high on the agenda of the Swedish government and efficiency measures will weigh on pharmaceutical market growth . The predominant driver of increasing healthcare expenditure is the country 's growing pensionable population. In particular, the rising incidence of chronic conditions among the population with a strong bias towards branded drugs will continue to boost healthcare spending.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SEK39.50bn (USD4.68bn) in 2015 to SEK39.71bn (USD4.59bn) in 2016; +0.53% in local currency terms and -2.0% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: SEK376.27bn (USD44.62bn) in 2015 to SEK386.02bn (USD44.63bn) in 2016; +2.6% in local currency terms and no growth in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||5.494||4.684||4.591||4.486||4.509||4.511||4.666|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.96||0.94||0.91||0.88||0.85||0.82||0.79|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.3||10.5||10.3||10.1||9.9||9.7||9.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||53.463||44.619||44.627||44.469||45.550||46.359||48.709|
In our Q117 Risk/Rewards Index, Sweden ranks 10th in the region. Factors such as the country's high per capita incomes and strong regulatory foundations will continue to promote per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and healthcare in general. However, the downward pressure on pharmaceutical prices will continue to be acutely felt in this small market of fewer than 10mn people.
In a five-year perspective, between 2009 and 2014, drug costs - as a percentage of costs of curative and rehabilitative care - declined from 8.1% to 7.6% in inpatient care, and from 24.9% to 21.0% of outpatient care.
In 2015, the sales of drugs that had been introduced to the Swedish pharmaceutical market in the previous two years were valued at SEK1.97bn (USD214mn). Hepatitis C drugs accounted for a significant SEK1.45bn (USD158mn).
In 2015, the cost of medicines was offset by price pressure on patented products, patent expiries and generic substitution which together contributed to reduced costs by SEK635mn (USD69mn).
BMI Economic View
After a three-year burst of growth between 2014-16 in which annual real GDP expansion averaged 3.2%, the Swedish economy is set to slow in 2017-18 to an average of 2.5%. Exports will pick up from a period of extreme weakness, helping to underpin overall expansion, but private consumption and investment will moderate as the housing market cools.
BMI Political View
The UK's 'Brexit' vote has raised long-term political risk in Sweden. While 'Swexit' is not our core view, Sweden may become increasingly isolated within a EU that is increasingly centred on preserving the euro.
The Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sweden pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sweden, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.