BMI View: Pharmaceutical companies will face an increasingly tough drug pricing environment in Sweden. The government will expand its use of pharmacoeconomic evaluations in order to provide appropriate justification of current expenditures and future investments in public healthcare, impairing the revenue earning opportunities presented by the growing demand for medicines.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SEK39.50bn (USD4.68bn) in 2015 to SEK39.67bn (USD4.66bn) in 2016; +0.43% in local currency terms and -0.4% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: SEK376.25bn (USD44.61bn) in 2015 to SEK386.01bn (USD45.39bn) in2016; +2.6% in local currency terms and 1.6% in US dollar terms.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||5.490||4.680||4.660||4.940||5.340||5.630||5.700|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.96||0.95||0.91||0.87||0.84||0.81||0.79|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.3||10.5||10.3||10.1||9.9||9.8||9.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||53.460||44.610||45.390||48.940||53.720||57.550||59.120|
In BMI's Q316 Risk/Rewards Index, Sweden ranks eighth in the region. Factors such as the country's high per capita incomes and strong regulatory foundations will continue to promote per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and healthcare in general. However, the downward pressure on pharmaceutical prices will continue to be acutely felt in this small market of fewer than 10mn people.
According to the Swedish Association of the Pharmaceutical Industry (LIF), Sweden's total expenditure for medicines has during the past decade increased much more slowly than health care costs in general.
According to LIF, Life expectancy in Sweden is increasing by one year every six years. One-third of this increase is attributed to new medical treatments.
According to the International Diabetes Federation, there were 446,900 cases of diabetes in Sweden in 2015.
BMI Economic View
The Swedish economy is in a 'sweet spot', with real GDP growth soaring and inflation remaining low. However, the ultra-easy monetary policy that has underpinned the recent expansion is building up problems for the future, and will put the economy at risk of a shock beyond 2016.
BMI Political View
Swedish politics will continue to be dominated by the issue of mass immigration. However, the mainstream parties' increasingly harsh stance on asylum seekers is pushing the populist far-right Sweden Democrats further to the margins, and makes it increasingly likely that the opposition centre-right Alliance will win the 2018 parliamentary elections.
The Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sweden pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sweden, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.