BMI View: Declining government reimbursement for prescription medicines and the promotion of lower-value generic medicines does not bode well for innovative drugmakers selling their products in Sweden, particularly as the government is the primary purchaser of pharmaceuticals. Over the long term, pushing costs onto a population with fewer young people to financially support the elderly will ultimately work to reduce the consumption of higher-value innovative pharmaceuticals.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SEK39.50bn (USD4.68bn) in 2015 to SEK39.69bn (USD4.67bn) in 2016; +0.48% in local currency terms and -0.4% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: SEK376.26bn (USD44.62bn) in 2015 to SEK385.99bn (USD45.39bn) in 2016; +2.6% in local currency terms and 1.7% in US dollar terms.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||5.490||4.680||4.670||4.720||4.730||4.690||4.750|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.96||0.95||0.91||0.87||0.84||0.81||0.79|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.3||10.5||10.3||10.1||9.9||9.8||9.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||53.460||44.620||45.390||46.710||47.640||47.950||49.260|
In BMI's Q416 Risk/Rewards Index, Sweden ranks tenth in the region. Factors such as the country's high per capita incomes and strong regulatory foundations will continue to promote per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and healthcare in general. However, the downward pressure on pharmaceutical prices will continue to be acutely felt in this small market of fewer than 10mn people.
According to LIF, the collective revenue generated by the top 15 pharmaceutical companies in Sweden increased from SEK17.42bn (USD2.08bn) in 2014 to SEK19.55bn (USD2.34bn) in 2015, with 13 of the 15 companies recording increases in revenues.
According to LIF, the collective revenue generated by the top 15 medicines experienced a 22.5% increase in 2015 - boosted by the commercialisation of Sovaldi, Harvoni and Daklinza in Sweden.
In July 2016, it was reported that Sweden has entered the race to succeed the UK as the host of the European Union's medicines agency in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.
BMI Economic View
While Swedish growth will remain among the strongest in the developed world in 2016-17, we identify a few risk scenarios outside of our base case that could derail the country's robust economic expansion. These include a sudden withdrawal of monetary stimulus; the UKs vote to leave the European Union; a reversal in the housing market, and a further weakening of global trade.
BMI Political View
Sweden's relationship with the EU is already under strain, and this will become even more pronounced after the UK's vote to leave the union in its June 23 referendum. Brexit' could lead to a domino effect among like-minded countries, potentially even leading to a Swedish referendum on the issue of EU membership.
The Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sweden pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sweden, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.