BMI View: Sweden's epidemiological profile will continue to be attractive to manufacturers of medicines for non-communicable diseases. Despite the relative rapid uptake of innovative pharmaceuticals, the burden of chronic conditions will increase over the next 15 years. Presenting a challenge to drugmakers, like many other developed states, Sweden is introducing cost-containment measures to restrict the commercial opportunities available to drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SEK39.50bn (USD4.68bn) in 2015 to SEK39.79bn (USD4.68bn) in 2016; +0.74% in local currency terms and -0.1% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: SEK371.82bn (USD44.09bn) in 2015 to SEK381.68bn (USD44.88bn) in2016; +2.7% in local currency terms and 1.8% in US dollar terms.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||5.493||4.683||4.679||4.955||5.349||5.639||5.709|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.96||0.98||0.95||0.91||0.88||0.85||0.82|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.4||10.6||10.4||10.2||10.1||9.9||9.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||52.810||44.085||44.878||48.431||53.198||57.042||58.642|
R isk/Reward Index
In BMI's Q216 Risk/Rewards Index, Sweden ranks eighth in the region. Factors such as the country's high per capita incomes and strong regulatory foundations will continue to promote per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and healthcare in general. However, the downward pressure on pharmaceutical prices will continue to be acutely felt in this small market of fewer than 10mn people.
In February 2016, Mylan, the Netherlands-based pharmaceuticals group, announced the acquisition of Sweden's Meda for SEK83.6bn or USD9.9bn including debt.
All children living in Sweden qualify for free prescription drugs as of January 1 2016, when a new law came into force designed to reduce health inequality.
In 2016, the Swedish government is to invest nearly half a billion crowns to introduce standardised processes for cancer care.
BMI Economic View
An unexpected surge in immigration to Sweden has altered both the near- and long-term landscape for Swedish demographics and the economic trajectory as a whole. We have raised our real GDP growth forecasts out 10 years, with residential construction in particular set to benefit from a rising population.
BMI Political View
High levels of immigration to Sweden will continue to present the biggest challenges on both the political and policy fronts for the Social Democrat-led government. The decision to end the country's 'open-door' immigration policy in November 2015 will help relieve pressure on the government and stave off a further increase in the popularity of the right-wing nationalist Sweden Democrats.
The Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Sweden Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sweden pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Sweden, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Swedish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.