Switzerland Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Switzerland Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Steady Growth Ahead

Core Views

  • Switzerland's growth trajectory over the medium term will be increasingly powered by consumer spending.

  • The government's robust fiscal position implies it will be able to step in and boost growth in the event that any external shock puts a sharp break on Swiss growth.

  • Although the Swiss National Bank's removed its CHF1.20/EUR floor on January 15, it will continue to intervene in FX markets in order to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Beyond the next several quarters, the franc will continue to gradually depreciate from overvalued levels.

  • A narrowing of Switzerland's large current account surplus will gather steam in 2016, but the surplus will remain sizeable over the coming years.

Major Forecast Changes

  • No major forecast changes

Key Risks

  • A sharp selloff in global equities at the start of 2016 reflects, among other things, mounting concerns over global growth prospects, further commodity price declines, risks of a Chinese hard landing, and waning confidence in the ability of central banks to boost growth. While so far there is little evidence of a concurrent slowdown in real economic activity, risks of contagion from financial markets to sentiment and production have grown steadily. Switzerland, being a highly open economy, remains exposed to any further downturn in demand from developed and emerging market trading partners.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Switzerland 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.0 1.0 1.4 1.6
Nominal GDP, USDbn 708.0 671.9 636.0 649.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.3 -1.3 0.6 1.2
Exchange rate CHF/USD, eop 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Current account balance, % of GDP 8.8 10.5 8.9 7.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Tough Battle Ahead With EU Over Immigration
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Index
11
Economic Activity
12
Economy Resilient To FX Shock
12
table: Real GDP Forecasts
12
table: Private Consumption Forecasts
12
table: Public Consumption Forecasts
13
table: Fixed Investment Forecasts
13
table: Net Export Forecasts
14
Monetary Policy
15
SNB Losing Fight Against Deflation
15
table: Monetary Policy Forecasts
15
Balance Of Payments
17
Robust External Position
17
table: Current Account Forecasts
17
table: Top 5 Export & Import Destinations
18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Swiss Economy To 2024
21
Steady Growth To Prevail Over The Long Term
21
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: Developed States - Labour Market Risk
24
TABLE: Developed States - Logistics Risk
27
TABLE: Developed States - Crime And Security Risk
30
TABLE: Developed States - Trade And Investment Risk
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
37
table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
38
table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
39
Other Key Sectors
41
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
41
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
41
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Outlook
43
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events
43
Table: Global Assumptions
43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
44
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
44
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
45

Assess your risk exposure in Switzerland with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Switzerland with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report