Steady Growth Ahead
Switzerland's growth trajectory over the medium term will be increasingly powered by consumer spending.
The government's robust fiscal position implies it will be able to step in and boost growth in the event that any external shock puts a sharp break on Swiss growth.
Although the Swiss National Bank's removed its CHF1.20/EUR floor on January 15, it will continue to intervene in FX markets in order to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Beyond the next several quarters, the franc will continue to gradually depreciate from overvalued levels.
A narrowing of Switzerland's large current account surplus will gather steam in 2016, but the surplus will remain sizeable over the coming years.
Major Forecast Changes
No major forecast changes
A sharp selloff in global equities at the start of 2016 reflects, among other things, mounting concerns over global growth prospects, further commodity price declines, risks of a Chinese hard landing, and waning confidence in the ability of central banks to boost growth. While so far there is little evidence of a concurrent slowdown in real economic activity, risks of contagion from financial markets to sentiment and production have grown steadily. Switzerland, being a highly open economy, remains exposed to any further downturn in demand from developed and emerging market trading partners.
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||2.0||1.0||1.4||1.6|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||708.0||671.9||636.0||649.8|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||-0.3||-1.3||0.6||1.2|
|Exchange rate CHF/USD, eop||0.99||1.00||1.02||1.00|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-0.1||-0.1||-0.1||-0.1|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||8.8||10.5||8.9||7.9|
Assess your risk exposure in Switzerland with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Switzerland with confidence.
Your subscription service includes:
- Delivery of the report in print and PDF
- Online access for 12 months
- The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
- The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
- The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
- Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report