According to the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Association, domestic auto sales for May came in at 23,942 units, which brought combined sales for the first two months of 2015 to 125,299 units, an increase of 1.2% y-o-y. The strong start to the year has prompted us to upgrade our full-year sales growth forecast to 6.8%, from 2.8% previously.
The passenger car segment has been the main driver of auto sales, which is further illustrated by the acceleration in private consumption growth in 2014 to 3.0% from 2.4% in 2013. While our Country Risk team expects private consumption growth to remain on an uptrend and rise to 3.8% in 2015, we believe passenger car sales growth for the full year will moderate slightly from 2014 due to high base effects.
As such, we forecast domestic car sales to grow 8.0% in 2015 after rising by 11.2% in 2014. Another factor supporting our outlook for slower passenger car sales growth is the deceleration in growth of car loans since February 2014. While total outstanding car loans rose by 31.7% y-o-y in February 2014, they only grew by 9.8% in January 2015.
Another bright spot for the auto sector is the stabilisation in commercial vehicle (CV) sales. After falling by almost 20.0% in 2013, CV sales only marginally declined by 0.6% in 2014, as the country's construction industry grew at a faster pace. With our Infrastructure team expecting the construction industry to expand at a similar rate of 2.5% in 2015 compared with 2014, we expect demand for CVs to remain resilient.
Additionally, our Country Risk team forecasts gross fixed capital formation to rise by 4.5% in 2015 versus 1.7% in 2014 as ongoing construction of athletic venues and housing for the 2017 Universiade summer games (held in Taipei) drives investment spending over the course of the year. Against such a backdrop, we forecast CV sales to end the year in positive territory and rise by 0.8% to 47,028 units.
The Taiwan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Taiwan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Taiwan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Taiwanese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.