Taiwan Autos Report

Published 02 July 2015

  • 63 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Taiwan Autos Report

According to the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Association, domestic auto sales for May came in at 23,942 units, which brought combined sales for the first two months of 2015 to 125,299 units, an increase of 1.2% y-o-y. The strong start to the year has prompted us to upgrade our full-year sales growth forecast to 6.8%, from 2.8% previously.

The passenger car segment has been the main driver of auto sales, which is further illustrated by the acceleration in private consumption growth in 2014 to 3.0% from 2.4% in 2013. While our Country Risk team expects private consumption growth to remain on an uptrend and rise to 3.8% in 2015, we believe passenger car sales growth for the full year will moderate slightly from 2014 due to high base effects.

As such, we forecast domestic car sales to grow 8.0% in 2015 after rising by 11.2% in 2014. Another factor supporting our outlook for slower passenger car sales growth is the deceleration in growth of car loans since February 2014. While total outstanding car loans rose by 31.7% y-o-y in February 2014, they only grew by 9.8% in January 2015.

Another bright spot for the auto sector is the stabilisation in commercial vehicle (CV) sales. After falling by almost 20.0% in 2013, CV sales only marginally declined by 0.6% in 2014, as the country's construction industry grew at a faster pace. With our Infrastructure team expecting the construction industry to expand at a similar rate of 2.5% in 2015 compared with 2014, we expect demand for CVs to remain resilient.

Additionally, our Country Risk team forecasts gross fixed capital formation to rise by 4.5% in 2015 versus 1.7% in 2014 as ongoing construction of athletic venues and housing for the 2017 Universiade summer games (held in Taipei) drives investment spending over the course of the year. Against such a backdrop, we forecast CV sales to end the year in positive territory and rise by 0.8% to 47,028 units.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2013-2019)
13
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2013-2019)
15
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2013-2019)
16
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2013-2019)
16
Macroeconomic Forecast
20
Economic Analysis
20
Table: Economic Activity (Taiwan 2010-2019)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Index
27
Competitive Landscape
28
Table: Taiwan - Vehicle Sales By Manufacturer (Including Exports)
28
Company Profile
32
Company Monitor
32
1
33
2
33
3
33
4
34
5
34
Kuozui Motors (Toyota Motor)
36
China Motor Corporation (CMC)
38
Yulon Group
39
Regional Overview
41
Asia Overview
41
Table: Asia Production Investment September 2014-January 2015
42
Global Industry Overview
50
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
50
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
50
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
52
Asia Carries The BRIC States
53
Demographic Forecast
55
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Taiwan 1990-2025)
56
Table: Key Population Ratios (Taiwan 1990-2025)
57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Taiwan 1990-2025)
57
Table: Population By Age Group (Taiwan 1990-2025)
57
Table: Population By Age Group % (Taiwan 1990-2025)
58
Methodology
60
Industry Forecasts
60
Sector-Specific Methodology
61
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
62
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Taiwan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Taiwan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Taiwan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Taiwanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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